Europe votes
Europe shifted to the right yesterday, in some countries (Austria, France, Germany) more than others (Scandinavia, Poland). Some recommended reading and an update from Ukraine.
I saw a TikTok recently made by an American, completely jealous of the fact that we in Europe have access to cheap flights from one end of the continent to the other, for prices cheaper than a bus ticket from DC to New York. And it’s true, we are here on this side of the Atlantic all much closer to each other. The average European speaks several languages, we can, if we scan the internet correctly and are prepared to fly at ungodly hours, fly off to another country for a few days without breaking the bank and with just your ID card in your pocket. There are many many benefits of the European Union, but it’s existence and influence is being called into question within many member states (a whopping 27 by now and this does not include the “west Balkan six” who have been waiting patiently for years like a girl who knows her boyfriend is never going to actually put a ring on it, and yet…hope dies last). I don’t know how well the election for what is essentially Europe’s parliament is being covered in North America, so I figured a brief, unscientific summary might be helpful.
First, I’ll start with Austria. Here, the big surprise for many (but not for me, to be honest), was that the far right “Freedom” party came in first place. They campaigned on an anti-everything platform: pick your fighter, they are against vaccines, Ukraine, the EU, any legislation to combat climate change. The party itself was founded by former Nazis back in the day, and has a very clear anti-immigrant message. It provides a vision which is not a vision, namely, get rid of the foreigners. I read a tweet yesterday (wish I had saved it), which basically said the same thing about Germany’s far right party (Afd): it tries to sell Germans a promise of a Germany without foreigners, i.e. turning back the clock, without a vision for the future. And yet, that message resonates with so many as what to do about immigration is one of the key issues (that, and economic woes) which many do vote on. And remember, all those immigrants, most of them cannot vote, as they are not citizens. So you have loads of taxpayers who have no representation. In France, Le Pen’s party took over 30%, and Macron has called a snap election, in what some say is a risky move. On television last night, the victorious candidate from the FPÖ in the EU election gushed about how much he is looking forward to being in a coalition in the EU parliament with the likes of Le Pen and Orban. The Germans are currently so far right that even the other far right parties in Europe aren’t sure they still want to vote in one block with them. In some parts of east Germany, the far right received nearly half of the vote.
My tweet was referring to weeks of local press coverage about scandal after scandal (involving her personal life lawsuits and questionable behaviour towards colleagues) surrounding a 23 year old (yes you read that correctly) climate activist the Greens nominated to be their EU candidate. In the end, the party only received 10% of the vote, and all the gossip really distracted from a discussion of the real issues on the ballot. I do not feel like local media have painted yet a picture of who these voters are which are essentially voting for an anti-everything platform. There is a tendency amongst left of centre intellectuals to discredit those who vote for the FPÖ all as angry idiots, and this is unhelpful to say the least.
The take-aways from yesterday’s vote across Europe are mixed. Some argue we should not panic, that put together, the far right is “only” a quarter of the seats. The news out of individual, often smaller countries, is alarming. It shows you how easily Russia can have this subversive element influence and how easily an electorate can be played, for lack of a better term. I, for one, knew nothing about Bulgaria:
Now you might say, but it’s Bulgaria. Does it matter? Individually, no, not really. Just like Austria doesn’t really matter. But if you put together significant minorities of the electorate who are pissed off with the status quo, and add that up across Europe, I think it is a substantial shift which we would be stupid to brush under the rug. I observed many “experts” and intellectuals on X trying to do just that yesterday evening. It reminds me of the situation in the U.S. when no one thought Trump could actually win until, he did just that.
Here in Austria, the two parties who have controlled politics for decades, the socialists and the conservatives, are both losing votes. Those who have had a chance to govern for decades are having a hard time selling a message that they can be trusted to bring about real, meaningful change. In a multi-party system, we may see more extreme views pushed forward as the electorate looks for alternatives. My biggest fear, which I have been writing about for a few months now, is that if catapulted into power, far right parties will use the democratic system (i.e. a free and fair vote), to dismantle those same institutions once in power. A small but not insignificant detail: last night the far right party told the journalists from the best investigate magazine in Austria there was “no room” for them at the party election night headquarters. Their editor in chief tweeted, Orban says hello. But it wasn’t really funny.
Here a summary from this same magazine (in German, sorry) of a first look at the results across Europe.
Austria will vote this fall for its own parliament, and the two words so many fear, Chancellor Kickl, might become a reality. I would not write off the possibility. This vote was low-turnout. The next one may not be. The rhetoric will heat up over the coming months, and none of this, really none of it, is good news for Ukraine.
Here is a good summary in English of the voting results across all 27 countries and what that means for the EU.
Before turning to Ukraine, I would like to recommend a few things to read and listen to. The first, the best article I have read to date on Ukraine’s “war on men”, the battle to “mobilise” men of service age. In this report, Shawn Walker also speaks with the men doing the recruiting, all of whom have served on the front and were injured there. I had never really thought much before about who it is doing the recruiting. Sure, I had wondered who signs up to do such a thankless job. This reporting puts both points of view into perspective.
On a totally different topic, I recommend this gift article published in the New York Times by two very brave reporters and photographers who managed to get into Sudan and report on the horrific war which has been tearing the country apart with hardly any coverage by the outside world. Of course, Russia, Iran, UAE, they are all involved. “The foreign meddling is frustrating American- and Saudi-led diplomacy to reach a cease-fire, though critics say even those efforts to save Sudan have been shamefully weak.”
A War on the Nile Pushes Sudan Toward the Abyss
If you understand German, I came across this podcast which does a very good, comprehensive job explaining the “immigration” crisis in Austria and how we got here, trying to separate some of the emotion from the figures. It is well worth your time, but even it — two sentences to the Ukrainians and they are forgotten, does not discuss at all the abuse of the generous European concept of a social welfare system by some recent arrivals, the actual thing that is pissing off many voters and putting a strain on our hospitals, schools, social housing, rents, etc.
This weekend I was chatting with some Ukrainian women, one of whom had just returned from being back home for a few months. I asked her about the mood at home. Exhausted was the word she used to describe it. In addition to the air raid sirens, most Ukrainians are now facing daily electricity cuts. Which means you have to plan your day and work and school around having electricity for maybe only a handful of hours a day. We started chatting and I asked a simple question, what about your fridge? She explained people will fill up plastic bottles with water, freeze them, and then stick the frozen plastic bottles in the fridge when the cuts happen in an attempt to keep their groceries cool. I saw another video of a young woman who bought a solar power generator for her balcony so she could charge some of her power banks so she could keep her phone, wi-fi router, and laptop working throughout the day.
These are inconveniences, yes, but imagine just the mental hassle of having to think about all of this. My brand new washing machine broke yesterday, and after five phone calls and still no appointment (customer service is so weak in German-speaking countries), I am irritated, and this isn’t even a real problem by any measure.
One woman spoke of the emotional toll of being in Europe and worrying about elderly loved ones who refused to leave Ukraine. She explained that even in Ukraine, despite the air raid sirens, she somehow slept more peacefully as she knew if anything happened, she could pop right over to help. When you are miles away from loved ones, trying to figure out how to build a new life in a new country, you have this nagging feeling of not being there, of worry. We talked about the psychological and emotional divide between those Ukrainians who chose to stay, and those who chose to go to Europe. I have the impression there are two Ukrainians now, and as the months roll on, the divide grows even wider. She spoke of seeing war all around you — you walk out of your apartment building, and a camouflage truck fresh from the front is parked out front. Your neighbour has come to see his wife. You walk to the store and you pass a young man without a leg. You run into an old acquaintance. Her husband volunteered at the beginning. Third year of the war, no retirement in sight for those lucky enough to have survived this long. And on it goes. And then we talk about the men who are here, who chose to leave, and how one “should” feel about them. There are no right or wrong answers. There are as many opinions as there are Ukrainians. Yes, it is terrible there are no elections. No, it would not be possible to hold one now. They do not love their leadership but they understand desperate times call for desperate measures.
How long, I ask.
Silence.
Long, they say. Everyone seems to agree on one thing: this war isn’t going to end anytime soon.
Last week I was able to send out many Hofer cards. Thank you, thank you, thank you. I received this video this morning and I although I normally don’t like showing faces, I think you should watch it. It shows you exactly who we are helping, and why.
Thank you for your breakdown of it all.