When I lived in Moscow, I would fly home to the U.S. for Christmas if I managed to get the time off work, but always made sure I was back in Russia for New Year’s and the great ten day hibernation that follows. Thankfully, Austrian schools are also hibernating until the tenth of January this year. That also means I am on kid duty for one more week. So my regular morning updates will start next week. In the meantime, I thought to share some of the pressing issues and hot topics I’ll be focused on this year. In no particular order:
Omicron
My controversial opinion is Omicron is unstoppable and we are all going to get it. I was even considering making a family straw poll, like a game of bingo, to see which day we all test positive on. My money is on the first few weeks of school. Despite FFP2 masks, a long school day, indoor sports, and cafeteria lunches mean wildfire spread is almost guaranteed.
Yes the 3x per week PCR tests in Vienna are amazing, and truly something no one else in the world has. Maybe they will help identify cases early. Maybe the kids will manage to finish the semester (and all those exams!). Maybe not. Maybe wealthy parents will keep their kids home during the last week of school so as to avoid quarantine and still be able to go skiing over the semester break in February (priorities).
Skiing will be interesting this year. Just yesterday I read forty (40!) ski teachers live together in employee housing in St. Anton, all got Omicron, and now that’s what, 200 children without teachers this week? You can imagine how thrilled their parents must be to have spent all that money and now have to ski with their own offspring.
Regarding Omicron, I get the feeling some of the people who have been fighting on Twitter for the past two years relentlessly to isolate and slow covid are having a hard time letting go of the idea that we will stomp out the virus. What you have to do is get off Twitter and look around. Talk to people. See how they are coping (or not). Young people in particular have had enough. They have sacrificed so much. They will not do it anymore. Nor should they. I wrote yesterday about accepting a higher cost of doing business, an increased risk of illness as the price to pay for simply being alive these days.
It is what it is. I’ve come to accept it and it makes my day to day existence a hell of a lot easier. I also think it’s a more realistic approach to the pandemic from an individual perspective. Policy makers have to deal with the big questions, of course, but most of us can’t spend years in covid high alert mode, it simply isn’t healthy nor sustainable.
Ukraine
Putin is obsessed, and has gotten the world’s attention. Biden did a smart thing by agreeing to meet in person after the holidays. This buys everyone some much-needed time. Yesterday, Finland, surprisingly, made public statements about potentially reconsidering NATO membership. This of course caused alarm bells, and jokes like wouldn’t it be ironic that in threatening to invade Ukraine, Russia actually ends up with Finland, with whom it shares over 1,000 km in border, in NATO instead.
What this commentary all misses is exactly how a man like Putin will view a country whose government is run by a 36 year-old woman who recently didn’t find out she was supposed to be in covid quarnatine because she went out clubbing with friends until 4am and left her phone at home. As one does.
I am not able to read any crystal ball, but I don’t think there is any point in trying to search for “logic” in analysing Putin’s Ukraine moves. It’s opportunistic and it’s personal. Therefore it’s dangerous. Putin has allies in Europe. He has friends in Hungary and Serbia and Slovenia. I’m pretty sure if Moscow ever decided to really reassert its influence in central and Eastern Europe, Vienna would be the capital of Russian subversion. Hot tip for 2022: follow the Russian embassy in Vienna on Facebook. You see every single influential Austrian they meet with on a daily basis.
Neo-Nazis
Here in Austria, I am far more concerned with the rise of the far right on the coattails of the anti-vaxx movement than I am about what covid will do to us all in 2022. I believe the far right, organised and online, has the potential to radicalise a large segment of the population vulnerable after two incredibly difficult years of pandemic mismanagement by Austria’s ever-changing government.
Good news today was Jewish organisations calling out Kickl for his statements on Zib2 at the end of December. At the time, I couldn’t believe they’d put him on television.
The problem with the traditional approach of giving all parties is a voice is that assumes all are working towards a common good, rather than trying to destroy a democratic system from within.
I don’t have any good answers. I can only say in 2022 I will be watching very, very closely what happens on the far right and their influence on politics and life here. We know from history that the world will only wake up to what is happening in Austria when it is too late.
The ongoing, behind the scenes GOP destruction of American democracy
The Republicans have been actively working in the background to make significant changes at local and state levels, from appointing friendly judges and Secretaries of State, to redistricting in blatant attempts to skew the vote GOP in the next elections. Democrats have been awfully silent on this. I was happy to see this cover story recently, that alarm bells are going off in London, if not in Washington DC.
Kurz’s new benefactor Peter Thiel has been funding, alongside Donald Trump Jr, candidates to defeat Senator Liz Cheney in Wyoming.
I think many American liberals are mixed up. They think Republicans wouldn’t destroy democracy because they are capitalists at heart. But authoritarianism and capitalism can co-exist rather nicely. Just look at China and Russia. You can get rid of pesky democracy in exchanged for managed capitalism. As long as the stock market keeps flying and the free money keeps flowing, what’s not to love?
The Democrats will need to accept, and very, very soon, that if they put forward either Biden or Harris they will most definitely lose 2024. I haven’t seen anyone say this out loud yet, and this worries me.
Progressives are massively frustrated with the Biden’s White House’s lack of results, from covid to spending bills. Centrists will ask themselves the selfish question, under which candidate will I personally be better off? If the answer is you will maintain your individual wealth under a somewhat scary GOP candidate, don’t underestimate the number of Americans who vote with their wallets. Despite all the awfulness of recent years, many families are doing financially just fine. Millions more are not doing fine, not anywhere close, and those are exactly the people the GOP wants to stop from voting. They may very well succeed.
Speaking of doing just fine, this is a must-read bonkers story on IRS tax loopholes for founders that extend to family and friends to the tune of tens if not hundreds of millions over decades. I had no idea. It doesn’t surprise me, but it’s interesting that so much of this is unspoken code by and for the 1%.
Other topics I am thinking about but don’t have time to write extensively on today. Running out of time and space, but briefly:
How will Omicron impact China’s economy when zero covid stops working? Is China’s unstoppable economic engine finally wobbling?
Will Dodik really pull out of Bosnia and attach himself to Serbia? Does Vučić even want that? What is Putin trying to do in the Balkans (other than get Montenegro to leave NATO)? Is the U.S. really paying attention (ex-CIA guy makes me nervous)? Does the EU have an actual plan for the west Balkans now that everyone understands EU membership is never going to actually happen?
Inflation. Food inflation. Jobs. Better paying jobs. Is anyone asking themselves how the world’s economy is working for recent graduates and young people? Does anyone care?
Podcast recommendation
So hard to pick just one, but I really enjoyed this recent conversation on the absolute racket that is higher education in America today. If you aren’t already listening to the many podcasts of Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway, I really recommend adding them to your list.
Wishing everyone a happy hibernation and an easy path back to work if you’ve already started today. I’ll be back next Monday (fingers crossed)!