A work of art: Russia "votes"
A closer look at the election show taking place across Russia this weekend, and more importantly, at those groups who are profiting most in Putin's war economy.
I had fully intended to dedicate today’s blog to Russia’s “election” and the impact of the war on Russia’s economy and society more broadly, but I must begin closer to home. Over the past 24 hours, I have received not one but three separate cries for help from Ukrainian women (Burgenland, Wien, Tirol) asking for resources for victims of domestic violence. Two at the hands of a partner, one at the hands of a roommate. In all three cases, I had to explain that your first stop is the police. The women are scared, they worry they cannot explain properly, they fear any potential consequences. And I have to explain that unless you report and document, it is as if it never even happened in the eyes of the law.
How is it 2024 in a civilised country (hate that term but you know what I mean, first world, etc. etc.) and women are still at the receiving end of violence from men in their lives?! I’ve been frankly in a foul mood all day just thinking about it.
With that out of my system, I would like to focus on Russia today. More specifically, on the farce they call an election, which began yesterday, and will last three days across Russia and in some, regions, online. We have of course no doubts about the outcome, but it does provide a good opportunity to ask oneself: what is it really like inside Russia right now?
A long BBC report here. Leaves you with the impression those brave enough to protest have already lived most of their lives and have therefore far less to lose.
Next, I would really recommend you stop reading here and listen to yesterday’s episode of The Daily, in which Valerie Hopkins describes a Samara shopping mall which receives the latest iPhones only three days after they appear in western stores, and visits a family in a remote village called “Oatmeal” to speak with a family (interestingly, non-ethnic Russian) which has just lost a son in the war in Ukraine. While observing this family in mourning, Valerie hears one relative ask those questions one is not supposed to ask in Russia, especially not in front of a foreign journalist. To ask what he died for? What is this war even for? Valerie does an excellent job of conveying two messages: the average Russian does not give a shit about the war in Ukraine and his/her life, both social and economic, goes on relatively unchanged, and those families who do lose sons/fathers/husbands in the war are handsomely rewarded for those loses in a financial sense. At least for now. That is the war economy, 2024.
Another very interesting survey was put together by The Bell, Russia’s leading independent journalists focused on the (this used to be more relevant a few years ago) the intersection of business, tech and politics, listing those businessmen who have gained the largest fortunes as a result of Russia’s new war economy. The Bell put together a summary in English of the top five Russians who got rich from departing Western firms. You will probably only recognise the fifth name on the list. The Bell also compiled a more comprehensive rating of new Russian businesspeople as a result of takeovers of formerly western-owned assets in Russia here (in Russian).
Meduza interviewed this week (also in Russian) the three journalists from The Bell who performed this fascinating research. They spoke quite openly about businessmen in over their heads with little relevant experience to manage the assets they have suddenly be handed by the Russian state. What I found most striking perhaps, was the conversation about why these Russian businessmen, who were already plenty rich before the war, made the choice to go all-in on Russia, rather than fleeing to the west. The answer? Money. Nowhere is it as easy to make big money for them as in Russia, and they have seen how hard some former oligarchs (Fridman’s name was mentioned) worked once they made a decision to exit Russia and try and replicate those profits by investing in new markets (spoiler: it was not nearly as successful as their Russian investments). So, perhaps not unsurprisingly, these Russian businessmen did not appear to struggle with any moral quandaries. They get to keep making money. And one is left with the impression that sanctions are not really a threat to anyone. Where there is a will, there is a way.
In the meantime, a fourth Lukoil executive died recently. Very strange the whole story and I would not dare to speculate. Ukraine seems to have been quite successful of late in sending drones into Russia to blow up oil refineries, as someone joked, Ukraine’s drone program is doing more to cut Russian oil exports than the sanctions regime itself. A key member of Navalny’s inner circle, Leonid Volkov, was attacked recently in Vilnius, sending the message to Russian “oppositionists” wherever they are in the world, that you should not feel safe just because you are outside of Russia. Russia has reportedly moved nuclear weapons into Belarus. Belarus is reportedly making changes to appoint the biological mother of Lukashenko’s handsome young son into a position of power in which she would be the member of parliament to nominate the next leader should anything happen to Lukashenko himself. As someone noted on X: the North Korea scenario.
Everywhere you look, the news is — not great. And yet you look outside, and the spring blossoms are emerging, and everything looks fine.
Ian Bremmer wrote recently:
“if trump wins, not much impact on india, israel/gulf states, or us asian allies. mexico/canada under more pressure but don’t have options, will come to a new normal. europe is in trouble.”
To which I replied:
Just before I read this, I saw in my timeline:
1. EU to ramp up ammunition production by year end 2025 (should have done 2+ years ago)
2. Borrell says war in Ukraine will be decided this spring/summer (extremely bad news if true)
Returning back to Russia, even though the results tomorrow are a forgone conclusion, this is a very interesting analysis about how this 2024 election differs from that only six years ago.
Devoid of substance: the 2024 presidential elections
One very notable quote: “People do not notice these elections. There are only two ways to achieve a 70−80 per cent turnout in such conditions — administrative coercion and falsification.”
There are no polls in Russia. There is no democracy in Russia. Everyone knows exactly what the trade-off is being sold to them, and the majority perform accordingly. Russians will not say to any journalist, foreign or domestic, what they really think. They may not even say that to their closest friends. This cannot be stressed enough. Fear is a powerful weapon. But one thing is also clear. Putin, like the rest of us, is not immortal. One day this era too in Russia’s history will come to a natural end.
Back in Austria, thank you, I distributed nearly 50 Hofer cards this week and continue to receive some lovely photos of Saturday grocery shopping. The requests continue to come in, and I try to manage expectations. Sometimes you read a story, like that of a mother with two kids here with her wounded husband, and you send two cards immediately, no questions asked. Others who just received help last month, you explain you cannot help again so soon. I am grateful for every family we are able to help in this little but meaningful way. Thank you all.