Amber and other feelings
U.S. and Russia talks in Geneva over NATO, Ukraine, and the future of Europe without Europe or Ukraine on the table. As one does.
U.S. - Russia talks in Geneva over NATO, Ukraine
I took this photo in the fall of 2019 when we visited the famous amber room, now reconstructed at Catherine the Great’s summer palace in Tsarskoe Selo, a short drive from St. Petersburg. I was reminded of it yesterday when I saw this insightful tweet on U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman’s choice of jewellery for the U.S.-Russia talks in Geneva yesterday. Amber, as the commentators noted, is native to the Baltic region. When I think of amber, I think of Poland or Kaliningrad. Russians also use amber, notably, when babies are teething. They are given string necklaces of tiny amber beads to wear quite tightly around their necks. The stones are supposed to help reduce the pain of teething.
So what actually happened in Geneva yesterday? From the looks of it, the U.S. and Russia spent hours talking to each other. The U.S. is firm in saying Russia doesn’t get to tell NATO what to do or set terms for the future of the alliance.
Russia is firm in saying it wants assurances NATO will go back to its 1997 borders, except as historians have pointed out, NATO never actually promised that to Russia, Yeltsin didn’t hear what he wanted to hear so fudged it anyway when he spoke with the press at the time.
In my opinion, the history of U.S.-Russia relations over NATO is just noise. What is happening right now is something else entirely. The U.S. and Russia are sitting in the middle of Europe and discussing the future security paradigm of Europe (otherwise known as how to stop Russia from invading Ukraine because Russia sure looks like it might invade Ukraine), while the EU and Ukraine are both glaringly absent from the table.
There more I think about it, the more the EU is entirely impotent, a large octopus of an organization that exists in name and in bureaucracy but when it comes to actual real politics is nowhere to be seen. It can’t control Orban. It can’t ensure access to abortion in Poland. It can’t offer new membership to the western Balkan nations. It can’t even manage to coordinate covid policies and politics between existing EU nations.
And no, I don’t think NATO will ever put boots on the ground, not for Ukraine, not for Bosnia, not anywhere really. What EU politician can justify dead soldiers on foreign soil? Not a single one. The head of NATO is already applying for a new job as head of Norway’s central bank, which I’m sure will make Putin even more fearful of him (sarcasm).
I don’t know if Putin will invade Ukraine or not. I’m not sure even he knows the answer yet. One thing is clear: the Russians have already won in their eyes as they have a seat at the table with Biden’s administration, one-on-one, with the EU completely sidelined. This makes them feel like the good old days of the USSR. I do think Ukraine is a very personal pet project for Putin, and I would lean towards thinking he may just go ahead and invade anyway when the time is right. You know, opportunistically. He now has a lot on his plate with Kazakhstan clean up and Lukashenko a ticking time bomb next door.
There are reports of Ukraine bravely getting ready for a fight. I certainly hope it wouldn’t come to that. It would be bloodshed for nothing. But this is the problem with nationalism and patriotism — it stirs up dangerous feelings in young men who suddenly feel they have found a purpose and have nothing to lose. I have absolutely no military background, but it would seem to me obvious with Russia’s capabilities they would, should they decide to, run over Ukraine in a week.
Putin has already taken his entire nation hostage. I don’t think he would hesitate to take over another one. The history book obsession is real. People laughed at it in the past, because it seems so ridiculous at face value. But imagine you think you are a living legend, on par with tsars and dictators of decades past. Of course you are obsessed with your own legacy once you have amassed all the wealth and power you could ever need.
Permafrost
This excellent long read by Joshua Yaffa is a wonderful deep dive into climate change, what happens when the permafrost starts to melt, how the far regions of Russia’s north are dealing with this, what happens when carbon is released, some innovative potential solutions…there is just so much to take in. Do set aside a few minutes and enjoy. Even if climate isn’t your favourite topic (I usually find it incredibly dull), this is fascinating and well worth your time.
Djoković saga
The Novak drama still isn’t over, with the latest news being he is free to practice on Australian tennis courts but might still get kicked out later this week should some government guy decide he deserves the boot. The entire drama is just bonkers. Ballaballa Balkan is an excellent podcast in German that takes a deep dive into the whole situation and the roots of Novak’s vaccine skepticism (recorded on January 8 so minus the PCR test drama which came later!).
I’ve come to two conclusions. First, the Djokovićs are a Kardashian-kind of train wreck and deserve their own reality TV show.
Second, western journalists don’t really understand how Serbia works, but finally pennies are starting to drop. Watching it unfold in slow motion is gorgeous.
On that note, enough for today. Later this week I’d like to write more about Austria’s covid test and vaccine bureaucracy nightmare. Today I’m a bit too emotional; the whole thing is taking up way more of our lives than it should and I’m not sure how to fix it other than to scream quietly to myself to release stress. I would love to protect my kids from the bullshit but so far I’ve come up short.
I’d also like to take a closer look at what is happening right now in Bosnia, as it relates to larger events playing out in Europe but in classic tradition, is being totally ignored in all western European capitals until, naturally, it will be too late.
Repeating history is fun, why bother trying something new, am I right?
Happy Tuesday, everyone.