Austria has a Belarus problem
Navalny Sundance documentary, Dr Fauci podcast, US & UK talk sanctions against Putin's inner circle, Soviet era nuclear tests, Russian asylum seekers via Mexico, more cocaine bananas in Montenegro.
I took this photo in February 2020 out of the window of a train curving around frozen Lake Baikal. Today my head is still all over the place, but I think it’s time to take a closer look at the role of Austrian companies continuing to invest in Lukashenko’s Belarus, a dictatorship on our doorstep, and current host of 30,000 Russian soliders and joint Russia-Belarus military drills from February 10-20. The dates are interesting because they match the rumor I mentioned in my post yesterday, from local Russian reporting near the border with the DNR, that things may heat up after February 20.
Belarus was in the news in August 2020 when mass protests under the historic white-red-white Belarussian flags swept the country after Lukashenko blatantly falsified election results. The crackdowns were brutal. The world sort of watched with its mouth open, but other than more sanctions against those closest to Lukashenko, not a lot happened. Further names were added to the EU sanctions list this past December in response to the hijacking of the Ryan Air flight from Athens to Vilnius in May 2021. World leaders are kind and meet with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya who has been tirelessly campaigning to spread the truth about Lukashenko’s regime in the west, but there has been little action against EU-registered companies still operating in Belarus. Austria’s WKO does go so far as to publish an official record of what you aren’t allowed to do commercially in Belarus at the moment due to sanctions.
This is nothing new, but it is also something that doesn’t get enough attention.
Let’s start with the obvious: A1, 28.42 percent owned by the Austrian state, whose stake is managed by ÖBAG, an organization we have all come to learn more about thanks to the Schmid chats. A1 played an active role in the protests in the summer of 2020, in that it manages one of Belarus’ mobile phone networks, and when the government ordered it to turn off mobile internet, it complied. Lately, A1 has been in the news as its press secretary in Belarus was detained for 15 days with little explanation. €400 million in 2020 revenues are not insignificant, particularly when they were earned while turning off the internet on peaceful protestors, and the Austrian state (meaning Austrian taxpayers), are making money off of operating in a regime that uses state-ordered violence against its own population at will and in which there is no freedom of speech or expression. Simply put, Belarus’ human rights record under Lukashenko is abysmal. The Austrian state should not touch it with a ten foot pole.
The next Austrian company that has become synonymous with business in Belarus is Raiffeisen Bank.
Raiffeisen operates Priorbank, the fourth largest bank in Belarus by assets. Anyone who has ever driven through the conservative Austrian countryside knows the only bank you will see in every village is Raiffeisen. It is practically synonymous with ÖVP, the conservative party. It’s therefore no surprise that when EU was calling for more sanctions to be levied against Lukashenko, Austria hesitated. Read this which details everything (“When asked about the case by press in Brussels on Thursday, the Austrian finance minister, Gernot Blümel, claimed he knew nothing about it.”).
The essence of Austria’s official argument was to not “punish” the “people” of Belarus = let Raiffeisen keep making money. Eventually, Austria reluctantly got on board with the rest of EU.
Other, lesser known investors from Austria in Belarus tend to be privately owned companies in labor-intensive and natural resource industries such as timber where they can extract benefit from low wages, an educated workforce, proximity to Europe, and an authoritarian regime — always much easier to cut an investment deal and negotiate tax breaks with. Kronospan made headlines when it invited Lukashenko himself to visit their operations in June 2021, long after he had been hit with EU sanctions (!).
Kapsch is rolling out its TrafficCom in Belarus. VST Building Technologies opened a cement-bonded particle board plant. This list is by no means complete, but gives one a sense of the intent of many Austrian companies in continuing to do business in Belarus no matter how awful the political situation in the country. This is an excellent overview in German about Austrian companies investing in Belarus. Even Vienna Insurance Group maintains Kupala, a JV non-life insurance company in Belarus.
Austria has been courting Belarus for some time. A business forum was held in Vienna in 2019. Lukashenko also visited Vienna later that same year. Recently, Austria has tried to give the appearance of changing its tone, hosting a conference in November 2021 to discuss the situation in Belarus.
The Austrian Foreign Ministry continues to say the right things, but Austrian companies keep on making money in partnership with Lukashenko’s brutal regime. Austria isn’t alone. There are many EU companies keen to keep trading with Belarus. Which, under normal circumstances, would be perfectly understandable. But these are anything but normal circumstances.
Not to be outdone, the newly elected communists from Graz even visited Belarus in 2021 to sing the regime’s praises:
One scenario which probably should be getting more coverage now is the real possibility that Putin’s troops (now reportedly 30,000 in number) never actually leave Belarus. Lukashenko of course calls that nonsense, and is holding a referendum later this month to extend his grip on power to 2035 and beyond. That is to say, if Putin lets him. I wrote about that in a bit more detail here.
None of this is news per se but I think it’s important to highlight hypocrisy, and there is quite a lot of it at the moment when it comes to Austria’s commercial relationship with Europe’s last dictatorship as the press like to call it.
Last night I watched the new Navalny documentary which won two top awards at Sundance. It is incredible. Do watch it. I can only recommend how to view it in Russian or Ukrainian here. If you have a VPN blocker you can, I think, watch it in the US via Sundance.
The film is so powerful, I don’t want to spoil it, but I can say that despite having followed all the events in real time, and knowing the details, I still sat on the edge of my seat as the events unfolded. One thing I had forgotten is Navalny’s parents are originally from an area only 10km away from the Chernobyl plant. In one of the interviews, he explains his own parents began to talk about politics at home after the explosion, when there was nothing in the news and everyone was ordered to go “plant potatoes” just to show the population that everything is fine nothing to see here. Also, listen carefully for the anecdote Moscow4. It’s just everything. And of course, his final message to the world — don’t give up.
Another very interesting read is this piece on Soviet era nuclear testing in the late 1950s in Kazakhstan and the horrific impact it had on the health of the local population in Semipalatinsk, and the brave doctors who fought the Soviet government to be able to go in and report on what was happening. A must read by Togzhan Kassenova:
For listening, I really enjoyed this conversation with Dr Fauci addressing the very timely and very tricky questions of when does pandemic turn to endemic and when can slowly do away with some of the covid measures. It was also interesting to hear on the radio this morning that Denmark has lifted everything, being the first EU country to do so.
Yesterday there was also much talk in the US and UK about sanctioning Putin’s inner circle, whatever that might mean, including families and relatives, should Russia really, eventually, as expected (sarcasm) invade Ukraine. I just hope they get the list right.
Biden also met yesterday with the Emir of Qatar, in his effort to find more gas for Europe in the unlikely (IMHO) event that Europe tells Russia Nord Stream 2 isn’t happening.
I really enjoyed this piece by Kate Aronoff on the gas situation in Europe, because it highlights all the American commercial interests who are just dying to replace Russia to become Europe’s gas suppliers. How the logistics of this should work I have no idea, but they appear ready to lobby DC and push lawmakers to come up with some crazy subsidies and ideas to get Europe to change its gas geopolitics. Makes you wonder what if anything in this whole mess is actually about Ukraine anymore!
This is getting long but very briefly, a Moscow Times report on how young political asylum seekers are travelling from Russia to Mexico as tourists to try and enter the U.S.:
and an update on the tons of cocaine bananas in Montenegro (spoiler: it’s a regular occurrence):
Thanks so much for reading. I just realised it’s now been one month and I am so grateful for this little project and for the interest it has generated so far. Thank you.