Austria has a Russia problem
Former and current Austrian politicians from a range of political parties have close and often commercial ties to Russia. Plus U.S. covid "experts", Die Wannseekonferenz film.
Austria has a Russia problem.
How does it go, the tail wags the dog? One day in October, I was sitting in my car, about to head into Starbucks for some mid-afternoon caffeine. I made a few simple screen shots of company websites, wrote a few simple facts in a tweet, and hit send. It blew up. But none of what I shared was new or non-public information.
At the time the real risk of Russia invading Ukraine was perhaps significantly lower, but the issue of Austrian politicians heading to Russia to enhance their retirement payouts is nothing new. As of this moment, there are currently three former leading Austrian politicians from three different political parties all serving on boards of directors of companies very close to the Kremlin:
Wolfgang Schüssel (ÖVP) on Lukoil supervisory board since 2019
Karin Kneissl (FPÖ nominee although technically independent) on Rosneft board since 2021 — she famously danced with Putin who came to her 2018 wedding (the couple have since divorced).
Christian Kern (SPÖ), on 100% state-owned Russian Railways board since 2019.
A lot is written in the international press about Germany’s Russia problem (shorthand — Gerhard Schröder but not only him — btw check out his wife’s Instagram it is colorful), but for a country of its size, Austria’s Russia problem is even bigger and more pervasive.
Doing business and maintaining relations with Russia is not inherently wrong. Austria and Germany both import nearly half their natural gas from Russia, and at least half of their crude oil, too. The move away from nuclear energy (which Kern argued on Im Zentrum on Sunday was correct) had increased near-term dependence on gas from Russia. The problem is no one built in the calculation of a security situation in which Germany and Austria find themselves on opposite sides from Russia.
It seems not unreasonable to speculate that DACH countries (famously neutral Switzerland, less famously neutral nor trusted Austria, and at the moment all over the place Germany) might sacrifice the sovereignty of a few central and eastern European states in order to keep the gas flowing to the German speakers of Europe. It sounds like a bold statement but I think it is a distinct possibility.
Yesterday, Austria’s foreign minister said gas should not be used as a lever with Russia, which is code language for we can’t afford a gas crisis right now. He reportedly hinted a removal from SWIFT might be on the table should Russia invade Ukraine, but that would also make gas deliveries and payments complicated, so I wonder if he really meant it. Austria will try to walk a fine line of sounding tough while silently praying the gas keeps flowing and wishing the whole Ukraine situation would disappear, just like it wanted covid to disappear a few summers ago. Probably with equal success (or rather lack thereof).
The gas problem is real and I don’t mean to diminish it. I was reading just today in a local Vienna Facebook group posts from people who are moving to new apartments because utility costs have caused their monthly rents to increase by more than they can afford. I don’t want in any way to diminish the economic issue here.
But it’s important to remember it’s not just looking out for ordinary people, but also the high-level economic and other political power relationships that have been built in recent years between Austrian politicians (current and former) and Putin’s Russia, despite Navalny’s poisoning and subsequent imprisonment, seizure of Crimea and the Donbass, police brutality against protestors last year, the ongoing arrest and harassment of journalists, and all the rest of it.
Moscow puts on a great show when you whirl in on a private jet for a long weekend. The greatest show on earth, some would argue. But it is a Potemkin village and Austria’s prominent faces don’t want to see Putin’s regime for what it is, especially as long as they are financially benefitting from their role in legitimising the show with their resumes.
Yesterday, the head of Austria’s parliament, Wolfgang Sobotka, hosted a group of Russian and Ukrainian orphans (yes you read that correctly) brought in by Russia’s ambassador to Austria. The ambassador of Ukraine to Austria smartly declined to participate in the manipulation of poor children for political photo-ops.
If you want to better understand the ties between Russia and Austria, all you have to do is follow the Russian Embassy in Austria’s Facebook page. It is very active and posts photos and updates from nearly every meeting and event they participate in here. Wolfgang Sobotka’s name comes up often. He said yesterday he believes the chance of a Russian invasion of Ukraine is real.
If you do a quick Google of “Sobotka” and “Russland” you come up with all sorts of tidbits. In 2020, the FPÖ (who famously loved to go visit their fascist friends in Russia) accused Sobotka of having travelled to Moscow and visited Jan Marsalek (Wirecard fugitive) while he was there. For more on the Wirecard scandal and Sobotka’s involvement, a long read in German. 2020 wasn’t Sobotka’s first trip. In 2018, Sobotka was warmly welcomed by the Russian Duma during a three day trip to Moscow.
Russia’s ties to Austria are broad and wide. If you click on this thread below, you will find a range of articles, from Kurz being asked to lobby the U.S. on behalf of Deripaska, to scandals involving foreign ministry and defence ministry officials embroiled in the Wirecard scandal, accused of leaking top-secret documents.
I took the time yesterday to watch Kern on Im Zentrum. I was truly surprised by how explicitly he argued the Kremlin’s point of view. I naively thought as a former Austrian chancellor now on a Russian payroll he would try to walk a tightrope. Nope. Kern basically argued Austria is a weak position because it depends on Austrian gas and Ukraine is Russia’s empire historical sphere of influence, even going so far as to remind viewers 24 million Soviet citizens died during WWII (failing to point out how many of them were Ukrainian).
My conclusion:
It’s not clear to anyone right now how things will unfold. Be wary of anyone who says with certainty how the Russia vs Ukraine crisis will play out. But do watch what Austrian politicians say and how they react to events. I think many believe they can play a game which lets Putin grab what he wants to grab as long as it’s not us, and in exchange Austria gets to keep its nice gas and oil contracts and deliveries.
Except, what happens if one day he comes for you? No one is thinking this is a remote possibility, and probably many of Austria’s fearless leaders wouldn’t have a problem working for the Kremlin if the money was right, and it usually is. But understand that when one country is invaded, it doesn’t end there. It never ends there. Appetite comes with eating.
Austria is famously neutral, but all the high-level U.S.-Russia meetings take place in Geneva because the U.S. has long lost trust that Austria can keep any secrets. Whatever happens in Vienna is almost immediately relayed to Moscow. This New Yorker piece brilliantly describes the spy environment at the moment here. The weather is accommodating as long as one understands the inherent risks. This other New Yorker piece brilliantly describes how incompetent Austria’s own security services are.
I can imagine a situation five years from now: the EU is a museum schoolchildren are taken to where they are taught how it once was, and Austria still claims to be an independent state but in reality is Russia’s European outpost, where government officials and elite maintain high ceilinged apartments walking distance to the State Opera and enjoy long weekends skiing in Lech or Kitzbühel. Sardinia it is not, but it will do.
If one really wants to dig, this is only the tip of the iceberg on the commercial and other ties between Russia and Austria. Perhaps a topic to continue on slow news days…
Recommended viewing! This German-Austrian film reenacts the surreal events of the Wannsee Conference during which a group of Nazis wrote a Protocol which outlined the exact plan for the Holocaust. I hope they will add subtitles and it will be broadly distributed.
Covid in America
I also got really upset listening to a covid podcast from the U.S. yesterday. I wrote an emotional thread. It is here. No matter how bad you think things have been in Europe, we have tests, we have vaccines, we have Drosten. The U.S. is a black box and then there are Ivy Leaguers telling you what you think you know isn’t true and then failing to back it up with data. We all know what we know based on our lived experiences which are just as valid as any fancy degree. I get enraged just thinking about it! The podcast is here but I wouldn’t recommend it unless you don’t get easily upset.
Happy Tuesday, everyone and thanks for reading!
Loves your blog, thank you for writing