I spent the first weekend in 2022 anxiously googling cheap flights. I bought tickets to Iceland on a whim, not having checked the weather nor hours of daylight in January. Somehow I found round trip tickets on Wizz Air for less than €200, and decided I needed to take the kids to Iceland. Right then and there. Perhaps sometimes spontaneous decisions are the best ones because you don’t have time to think through all the potential downsides. Before I could second guess myself about the weather, daylight, what would we actually do there, I was busy making binding reservations.
Iceland is beautiful and definitely worth a visit; January perhaps not the best time. As a water-loving person, I was thrilled with two days at the Blue Lagoon, although one morning it was so stormy it was only us and two dozen Russian-speakers braving the wind and the sleet to rub our faces in black, white and green masks and sip on cold beverages while braving the storm in warm thermal waters. The new Sky Lagoon is totally different but equally enjoyable; the view over the ocean is amazing, and it’s built into nature. I refused to risk taking my iPhone into the water, so my memories are fixed only in my head, the old-fashioned way.
We didn’t see the northern lights, nor were we able to hike to the recently erupting volcano, but my girls did enjoy a ride on Icelandic horses, walking nearly down to a beach on the south shore. Iceland is unlike any other place I’ve ever visited. I would love to go back, although I know my own limitations, not being one of those hiking people, the isolation and the wilderness and the WIND my god the wind, that kind of scared the shit out of me. The car rental place explained to us how not to let the doors of the car blow off when you open them, and they were not exaggerating. The car tires had spikes and I still struggled at times to manage it on the highway, as winter temperatures in Iceland hover around zero, and make the perfect conditions for black ice. But we survived and did as much as one can in three days with less than ideal weather. We came home happy and curious to see more one day.
Kazakhstan
Anyone who tells you they saw the events which unfolded this past week in Kazakhstan coming is lying. No one expected it. I am a novice when it comes to Central Asia, and although I read a lot in Russian about what is happening there, I defer to the experts on this one. This is one overview of where things stand now:
My personal focus has been on the oil and gas and mining assets — Kazakhstan is incredibly rich in natural resources. Over the past 30 years, the country has been de facto ruled by the Nazabayev family. This has made them and their close friends incredibly rich. This thread contains many articles on the Nazarbayevs, their wealth and influence, and real estate holdings abroad:
Unlike Russia, Kazakhstan has welcomed foreign companies with open arms to develop these sectors through PSA and other agreements. Chevron, Shell, Exxon, all the big names are there, and have been since the 1990s. I think the biggest risk for 2022 is Russia will insist on payback for having sent in troops to help Tokayev regain control of his streets, and that will come in the form of giving western companies the boot and replacing them with Russian energy and mining companies close to the Kremlin.
China seems to be taking a wait and see approach, understanding that this is still Russia’s backyard and therefore it gets first dibs on influencing outcomes during times like these.
From Russia’s perspective, it probably wasn’t expecting this all to unfold now either, but it has seized the opportunity to assert its influence in the near abroad, to prop up a leader loyal to Moscow (and MGIMO educated). This photo of CIS country leaders from 2006 was circulating yesterday. What a different time it was.
It’s now not impossible to imagine a world by the end of 2022 in which Russia has taken de facto control of Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. I’m not saying it will happen, but I certainly wouldn’t bet against it.
Other topics on my mind this week are U.S.-Russia talks on NATO / Ukraine in Geneva
and nationalistic parades and worrying rhetoric in Republika Srpska, Bosnia.
Perhaps later this week I can dive deeper into each of these topics.
I’m also following the ridiculous Djoković vs Australia situation with amusement, and how China deals with Omicron, as I remain pretty certain even fortress China won’t be able to control it, although whether or not they will tell the world about it is a different matter.
Finally, this podcast episode is a great listen on the insane situation the Democratic Party finds itself in, with serious people actually suggesting nominating a celebrity like Oprah or The Rock to run for president, acknowledging the elephant in the room that any combination of Biden/Harris is dead on arrival, and the “bench is thin”.
It is also an interesting discussion of the new media project by Ben Smith of Buzzfeed/NYT and Justin B. Smith of Bloomberg. I am personally super excited for this product to launch. They talk about targeting English-speaking college graduates, and a lot of American journalists laughed at them, but that’s because they don’t see things from an international perspective.
My entire twitter feed is people who may live and work in languages other than English, but consume international news in English and use it as a working language. Ben Smith broke the sex scandal at Axel Springer in 2021 in his writing for the New York Times, and I think he really understands the potential for such a product.
This podcast discussion also dives into a very relevant topic — how do you best deliver news? How many words are people really prepared to read today? If less is more, why are so many serious media publications still fixated on word count?
Puck is also a new media start-up and if I wasn’t so broke at the moment (see Iceland trip), I would be subscribing for 2022. They have a great team of journalists and provide insights others don’t offer.
Wishing you all as smooth a Monday as possible. It’s not easy getting used to the early morning alarm again. I am looking forward to the days getting longer soon.
I’m off to bake a rainbow layer cake. My middle child turned 14 today. She requested pelmeni for dinner tonight which I made yesterday. The look absolutely terrible, but I hope will taste better than they look. A rainbow layer cake filled with raspberry buttercream and covered in homemade marshmallow frosting should in theory be easier!