Day 13
International Women's Day. Thoughts on "truth" during war. Will Putin's war spread beyond Ukraine? Ukrainian refugee crisis. Some recommended reading.
Today, the 8th of March, is international women’s day, a holiday I had never even heard of until I lived in Russia, where not only was it an actual public holiday, but for a day, one single day of the year, every woman was made to feel a princess. I was only congratulated on the day one other time outside of Russia, in Florence, Italy, where a small hotel left red roses on our pillows more than 20 years ago now. I imagine that was a leftover from the communist traditions in northern Italy. But I digress.
Day 13. Ukraine is still fighting for its existence. A thread from this morning with news and videos. Here are some soldiers near Odessa wishing the women of Ukraine peaceful skies over their heads. And this personal message from governor Kim of Mykolaiv, wishing all the women that their men may safely return home, soon, and for peace. There is great concern that humanitarian evacuation corridors are still not safe, as Russia has repeatedly on purpose attacked these pre-agreed routes. Putin’s war is not just on Ukraine, it is on the Ukrainian people. His army is intentionally targeting civilians. There is more than enough evidence of this now to make this statement.
Russia is still pushing forward on all fronts, but it is important to note today is already day 13 of Putin’s war and Kyiv is still standing. I can’t imagine this was a scenario anyone in the Kremlin would have put in front of Putin before the war started. There are unconfirmed reports (and I really have to stress here unconfirmed) that Russia lost another general near Kharkiv yesterday. I share the whole thread here, with the usual caveats.
Over the past few days, I have observed voices on Twitter with large followings willingly sharing really unconfirmed information to “help” the Ukrainian side. While there should be no doubt as to what side anyone is on, I truly believe truth is the order of the day. Meaning, if you don’t have more than one source, you didn’t see something with your own eyes and ears, you have an obligation to say this is not confirmed. Same for sharing sources so your readers can make up their own minds. I’m not a journalist, I’m not a think tanker, I’m not playing any games other than trying to figure out and share what is actually happening.
Therefore, for example, I did not share the video making the rounds a few days ago supposedly showing Russian POWs having an actual press conference in Ukraine. I saw two highly respected US-based observers share the videos as fact. I watched the video up until I heard one of the POWs say Kyiv instead of Kiev while speaking Russian. I looked at the black eyes and bandages and decided it was all a rather well done fake. Just my two cents but I realised it is also important to tell you what I don’t share and why.
Wars are fought on land, in the sky, on water, over cyberspace, and in the hearts and minds of people. Propaganda is a big part of any war. Just look at these photos taken in the St Petersburg subway yesterday. The fascist Z is spreading across the world in far right circles and frankly I don’t think the western democratic world is worried enough. There were pro-Putin protests as far away as Australia yesterday. The far right is connected around the globe thanks to covid (most are also antivaxx and definitely anti-covid restrictions) and Telegram.
As we talk about Putin’s fascist message spreading beyond Russia’s borders, I think it is also relevant to talk about what parts of our western, democratic world are most vulnerable. There are two kinds of vulnerable. The first are independent sovereign states which Putin does not believe should exist. These include Moldova and Georgia. Small, poor countries formerly under Russian influence during the Soviet Union. Not yet NATO members. Apparently “soft targets” even per CNN analysts who seem to be handing countries over to Russia’s dictator via the TV screen from their cosy Virginia home offices. Here I think it is also important to understand that Putin would not have to be “finished” with Ukraine to launch invasions into either of these two small countries. Hitler also didn’t finish one front before launching a new one (this also ultimately led to his demise, just like this war will only end when Putin is dead, something I’ve been saying since it began and still believe to be true).
Other vulnerable countries are NATO members, but new ones. Many observers (hate that word) have started talking about the Baltics as if they are suddenly up for discussion. The Baltics were annexed by Stalin in 1940. They were the first to declare independence when the USSR fell apart in 1991. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been NATO members since 2004. But what we have now is an unprecedented situation, and NATO’s resolve to defend its new members has not yet been tested in practice. Do read this Politico piece below and keep in mind it was exactly when Putin came out with his huge history paper on Ukraine that the smartest observers said pay attention to this. The troop build-up last spring, history paper last summer, war this winter. Many thought it was too far fetched to happen, yet it happened anyway.
Other NATO nations which must be nervous now include Romania. Also joined the alliance in 2004; more troops were recently sent. Romanians themselves are nervous. Again, NATO is untested here.
Hungary is a NATO country but its mini-dictator, Orban, is a Putin fanboy. So Hungary continually puts out very mixed messages. Yesterday, buried in an announcement of nominal help, Hungary explicitly said no shipments of lethal aid to Ukraine could take place on its territory. While Ukraine is being attacked on all sides by Russia. Makes you genuinely wonder where Hungary really stands in this, aka all fascist minds think alike. Which, by the way, is a good way to think about what is happening now in far right circles as they watch Putin’s war.
Moving westward, then you have Austria. The covid pandemic has created a solid base for the far right. The antivaxx anti-immigrant anti-covid measures Freiheit for our Heimat movement led by neo-Nazis, FPÖ, MFG and other savoury characters is emboldened, having organised mass protests weekend after weekend against the vaccine mandate in cities across Austria. They are mobilised on Telegram and Facebook. They are the perfect base for a bad actor to try and influence Austrian politics from the outside. Putin has long tried to use the European far right to influence politics within the EU, with varying success (not great but not terrible). This jumped out at me yesterday. Austria’s far right protestors will be protesting this Saturday in Vienna against the EU/NATO. Watch out for Zs. I imagine you will see quite a few of them the Saturday in Vienna.
When people say to me “Putin can’t get to Austria, we are neutral! We are surrounded by NATO countries!” my response is simple. He doesn’t have to come with tanks. He doesn’t have to invade at all. He may simply work behind the scenes to ensure a Russia-friendly puppet government here. One thing has become perfectly apparent to any observer of Austrian politics over the past few years: governments here come and go with the seasons. You blow out a candle and they fall over. I imagine not so much Russian tanks in Europe, but little satellite governments working to destabilise the EU from within and support Russia from abroad. Little puppet fascist states. And that is what scares the crap out of me. It is exactly that kind of state that I do not want to live in or raise my kids in.
Last but certainly not least, let’s look briefly at the Balkans. Mini-dictator Vučić in Serbia, like Orban in Hungary, is up for re-election this spring. There have been some anti-war protests by some brave souls, but on the whole, Serbia’s government and media have been pro-Putin and pro-Russia. The fascist protests in support of Russia already started. They will certainly use this opportunity to make some much needed money helping Russia avoid sanctions. Belarus got slapped with sanctions too so now watch Serbia.
I wrote my college thesis on this, but basically, throughout history, little Slavic brother Serbia looked at big Slavic brother Russia when it needed help. Traditionally, Russia only ever helped Serbia when it was in Russia’s interests. In other words, it was an opportunistic relationship. Surely the same will be the case now.
With regards to the Balkans more broadly, watch Dodik the mini mini dictator of Respublka Srpska, the Serb-majority part of Bosnia. Watch Kosovo. My step mother, herself sitting on vacation in Hawaii, but consuming Serbian tabloids, told me the Serbian army is on alert and things might stir up in Kosovo again. Whatever that might mean, it doesn’t sound good. Putin’s strategy, especially if his war drags out, would be helped by more conflict in Europe so NATO/EU/US are distracted by having to fight multiple geopolitical and military fires at once.
Watch new NATO members like Montenegro and Albania. They too will be vulnerable. Russia already made direct attempts in the past to influence local politics in Montenegro, enraged that the little Adriatic country with a deepwater port dared to join NATO.
Putin is all in now. He has no way back. He has destroyed the Russian economy with his war. The smartest minds have all fled the country. He sees destabilisation in the west as a victory for Russia. So in his mind, this war expanding beyond Ukraine’s borders may be to Russia’s advantage. Putin is ultimately going to go down in flames, but not before he does a lot of damage.
Yesterday, Russia published an official list of “unfriendly” countries. You can read it here.
I see the hesitation in the west. The false and naive belief that this war can and will be limited to Ukraine. How can a war that results in millions of women and children fleeing to seek refuge in Europe be limited to Ukraine? The war is already here. It is on our streets and in our cities. People have arrived who desperately need our help.
Phew. I think that’s enough for this morning. There is a couple on a Tinder first date or whatever sitting next to me sitting so loudly and I cannot concentrate. She drinks tons of coffee, he doesn’t because he has “so much energy already”. Amazing that people do these things at 9:30 AM on a Tuesday!
Other links & recommended reading:
Morning thread.
Evening thread from last night.
Beautiful and sad story from Odesa:
A must read from Olga Tokariuk
Thread of mega-informative threads. If you are not following Kamil Galeev you are missing out he is a wealth of knowledge.
Some images from Ukraine
Thank you for reading. I am on my way to volunteer at Hauptbahnhof again. More useful links here if you would like to help Ukrainian refugees arriving in Austria. The Russian-speaking Facebook group for moms here has already organised group posts for everything from housing to helping Ukrainian moms find work here in Austria based on their professional qualifications. I continue to be positively surprised by the speed of our collective response. Help works best when it is quick, direct, person to person.