Day 5
Fair to say the last 24 hours have been the scariest in most of our lifetimes, and we aren't even in Ukraine.
This photo was posted by the telegram “Kharkov Life”. The mother wrote her son drew this while they were sitting in a bomb shelter. “Our children are growing up too quickly" is perhaps the understatement of the past few days.
If you are feeling completely overwhelmed and confused, you are not alone. I’m just going to try and recap what has happened since I last wrote, and if things that in normal times would have been very important are left out, please understand these are not normal times. It all starts to become a blur, as more horrific news rolls in every time you hit refresh. Meanwhile, the real war hasn’t come to us yet, but it has to the people of Ukraine. Civilians are being targeted, homes are being hit with bombs, people are dying. Children are dying. Very young men with little military training are being sent to war for nothing (Russia, Belarus — rumour starting today) and to defend their homeland (Ukraine).
Most importantly: this weekend, the west announced truly punishing sanctions, from cutting Russia off of SWIFT, freezing the assets of the Russian Central Bank, and banning Russian flights from EU airspace, and German chancellor Scholz held an emergency session yesterday during which he announced it was time to arm Germany and the world has fundamentally changed over the past four days. Even BP is selling its 19.75% stake in Rosneft.
Putin turned up the temperature. He threatened nuclear war.
There was later a rumour that he fired the general Gerasimov, head of the Russian army since 2012, you see sitting here in the photo next to defense minister Shoigu (an old Putin friend who himself is not a military man). This proved to be unfounded, thankfully. Why do I say thankfully? Getting rid of experienced military men would be even worse, as they are the most likely to tell Putin what is and isn’t achievable by military means, and would hopefully also be more likely to warn about civilian casualties. Perhaps I naively place more faith in the professionals than in Putin’s freaky inner circle of close “friends” who don’t dare share reality with them.
Regarding the threat of nuclear war — I am trying to remain calm. Blowing the world up would also mean blowing up the history books which Putin wants to go down in. On the other hand, the nutcase on Sunday night state TV actually apparently said what is the point of having a world if Russia doesn’t have a place in it. So that’s…not great. Calmer minds reminded yesterday this is the beginning of the end, no going back now for Putin from this.
People all over the internet are now trying to ask the obvious question in convoluted ways: who is going to be able to kill Putin and end this madness? I don’t know the answer to that, but I have been thinking about novichok and underpants, given the arguments that no one is actually allowed near Putin. I really hope the world’s secret agents have a group chat about this now. Jokes aside, it is really the only way out.
Meanwhile, the war rages. Kyiv was/is by some reports encircled. The AP quoted the mayor himself, this was later corrected by the mayor’s office. There are checkpoints surrounding the city as there is fear of sabotage and terrorists sneaking in using disguise.
Civilians cannot get out. Valentina, who you may remember, whose son is in Austria, cannot get out. We are trying to figure something out, but so far the only way out appears to be by train and as an elderly woman she cannot stand for hours on a packed platform with the hope of getting on a train, if one comes.
Meanwhile, the scariest news I read today (other than the threat of nuclear war) is that 400 Wagner mercenaries are reportedly in Kyiv trying to assassinate Zelensky and his government. Wagner is a ruthless private army set up by the man referred to as Putin’s chef. The combatants will be experienced from battle in places like Syria and will not necessarily be ethnic Russian. Very scary.
Meanwhile, the “peace” talks which cannot be anything more than buying time at this point are supposed to start at noon Moscow time, so in half an hour as I write this, on the Belarus-Ukraine border near Chernobyl. I cannot understand why Ukraine is still sending a delegation. Rockets flew towards Ukraine from Belarus again last night. Missiles were launched from Belarus last night.
Ukraine seems to be still holding its major cities, but Russia is making advances from the south, there is increasing pressure on Kyiv and Kharkiv, and Russia also made gains in the east last night. These are generalisations from what I read in the past 24 hours. For more specific military summaries, do follow people like Rob Lee and Michael Kofman. To be frank, it’s not my area of expertise, and I am far more interested in using my Russian language skills and decent understanding of the Ukrainian language when spoken to share stories from social media about what is happening to real people, civilians, on the ground.
My thread from this morning tries to give you all a better idea of how things look using sources from Telegram, TikTok and Instagram. This thread from last night tries to do the same. You can click through for videos and images. When I think something shouldn’t be shared because it is too graphic or too personal, I try to describe it with words. I don’t know what else to do. This seems at least helpful to the people of Ukraine to spread the word in the English-speaking internet about what is actually happening. Things are moving so fast I often fear newspapers and TV simply cannot keep up. So many stores to share, so many will simply be lost into cyberspace.
No we will watch what happens in the so-called peace talks. I fear they are nothing more than a breather so both sides can buy time.
We will see how the Russian market goes into free fall, provided it even opens at 3pm Moscow time. Interest rates raised to 20%, who knows where the ruble will open, and individuals and companies ordered to sell hard currency revenue. So much for managed authoritarian capitalism. The oligarchs are turning, but what they really should have done is turned years ago. They were too greedy for that.
I don’t dare make any predictions at this point. I think rational analysis goes out the window when you are dealing with a madman. I am very worried about Putin’s mental state, I am worried about Kadyrov gone rogue thinking he can keep Chechnya on the forever money drip if his boys murder everyone in Kyiv.
I am so proud of the US and EU for acting (the EU is even funding lethal aid who would have thought?!), but I am just so scared it is all too little, too late.
If we assume most of the Russian population does not want war with Ukraine, and I believe this still to be a rational assumption, then the problem is one far too powerful and isolated man with nuclear weapons and his entourage.
I’m sorry. I don’t dare make any predictions. I am only hoping that eventually, somehow, the good guys win. Because the good guys are people who believe in the individual right to self determination, to freedom for individuals and sovereign nations, to standing up against fascism and racism and dictators abusing their incredible powers which they stole for themselves.
No surprise that Chinese public opinion is apparently on Putin’s side. It looks like China is happy when someone “fights back” against America.
When Putin is done terrorizing the west and hopefully dead, China will then try and eat the rest of us for breakfast. Provided we survive the threat of nuclear war. I know you aren’t supposed to talk like that. But I really think that to be true. China’s regime today is not a culture that even recognizes individual freedoms as such. For me personally, the right to self determination is the most fundamental one I can think of. Something I thought about a lot yesterday, when I witnessed this scene:
Thank you for reading and for your support. I hope it is helpful. I am thinking about everyone in Ukraine. I don’t have a way to help them financially. I can help here on the ground in Austria, but there are many volunteers already doing that, thankfully. I think I can be most productive when I try to share what is happening with the world. Russian language skills were for the longest time about as useful as Latin. Perhaps now that has changed, for a moment, for very tragic reasons. May there be peace soon, but not at any price.
Update: Zelensky speech just posted this morning. I paraphrase:
Russia has killed 16 Ukrainian children so far. Our soldiers are fighting for all of Europe. Asks for a new special program to accept Ukraine into EU. I think it’s fair. I think we have earned it. Talks about what will now happen to Russian economy, to the Russian people. Why did you all come here? Why are your soldiers here? Why is your military equipment all here? Says 4,500 thousand Russian soldiers have been killed. Put down your arms. Don’t listen to your commanders and propagandists.
Thank you again for another great guide through all this madness.
Again, many thanks.
I do want to comment on the point of sending a delegation to try to talk peace and an end to the conflict. Even if these talks "fail" to stop Putin, Zelensky, a rational and caring individual from all accounts, has to try everything and anything to prevent the killing of innocents.
From Wikipedia the Ukrainian oath of office: "Я, (ім'я та прізвище), волею народу обраний Президентом України, заступаючи на цей високий пост, урочисто присягаю на вірність Україні. Зобов'язуюсь усіма своїми справами боронити суверенітет і незалежність України, дбати про благо Вітчизни і добробут Українського народу, обстоювати права і свободи громадян, додержуватися Конституції України і законів України, виконувати свої обов'язки в інтересах усіх співвітчизників, підносити авторитет України у світі."
The passage (translated, thanks DeepL!) "..."to fight for the good of the Fatherland and for the well-being of the Ukrainian people, and to uphold the rights and freedoms of the people,.." is what I see him believing in with all his soul. This is why I believe he tries.