Day 6
Russia's war = war crimes against Ukrainian civilians. The map. The view from Moscow. The view from telegram and TikTok. What to read. Links to threads.
I took this photo on Saturday afternoon in a Georgian cafe in Vienna. Looking at it now, I see the headlines and they are asking the same questions we are all still asking. Why? Putin’s War. Putin wants a putsch in Kyiv. What if Putin wins? A shadow over Europe. As I was working in that cafe (working is the wrong word because I do this for free — writing! I was writing), there was a table next to me of three young women all speaking Russian. They were not talking about the war. I put on my headphones and tried to ignore them. I could not understand how you could be talking about anything but the war right now.
There is a flood of information and it is nearly impossible to track all of it. I know nothing of “military strategy” or things of that nature. I cannot understand why war even exists as a concept in the first place. What I am trying to do is use my Russian language skills and basic understanding of Ukrainian from those skills to share information directly from sources in Ukraine. I follow local Telegram channels run by people in each major Ukrainian city. I follow many people on TikTok from around Ukraine. I scan Russian social media, mostly Facebook groups and Instagram, for the view from Moscow. I try to present a picture both of what is happening on the ground in Ukraine (because this war is most definitely being captured nearly in its entirety by smartphone cameras, dash cams in cars, and CCTV), and also to share what I am hearing from Russian circles both in Moscow and abroad. My emphasis has always been on the human element. I care about how this is impacting ordinary people and their lives. For the news about geopolitics and military analysis, plenty of experts out there to follow. Likewise, I am not really reporting on the growing refugee crisis in Europe because I feel my language skills are better used to track what is happening in Ukraine and Russia.
So, with that preamble, what happened in the past 24 hours? Peace talks did take place in Belarus, not really clear what if anything they achieved, other than buying both sides time. They are reportedly going to start up again in a few days, but they haven’t led to a reduction in fighting or reduced severity of attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine.
What happened yesterday in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, is a war crime. It is still happening. They dropped an enormous bomb on Freedom Square just a few hours ago. The people of Khariv will never forgive Russia for this. Ukraine’s defense minister called this morning for a war crimes tribunal.
This appears to be a decent map reflecting the current military situation. From what I read, many fear Russia will intensify its attacks in order to speed things up.
Austrian evening news and others also reported yesterday the presence of a convoy of Russian equipment nearly 30 kilometers long outside of Kyiv.
In other words, simply put, there is a huge risk the next 48 hours or so are about to get much worse, as Russia tries to encircle the Ukrainian army in the east, pushing down from north and south (again please take military details from the experts, I am just trying to put my understanding in layman’s terms).
I keep thinking about something else. I cannot understand how Russia is doing this. I cannot understand the reaction of many Russian people who instinctively blame the west rather than their president for the wave of sanctions which for most of them probably came out of nowhere yesterday:
Last night I looked a bit at how Moscow was reacting, at least online, in mommy Facebook groups. First I should say in general politics are banned, and certain admins, whose husbands for example work in government or near-government structures, are continuing to say they will ban anyone who starts to talk politics. Other groups allow such talk, but more in the context of how the sanctions will impact their lives: how to get visas, how to fly abroad, what will happen with payments, how this will impact their nice comfortable lives until now:
I think there is a real risk (and I am not saying these sanctions shouldn’t have happened I see no other option if NATO isn’t prepared to enter into a hot war with Russia and take out that 30km long convoy) that Russians will become increasingly isolated, their kids will be teased in school for speaking Russian — those who live abroad, and they will blame the US and the west and Hollywood and everyone else except for their Putin because he is theirs. That is my fear. There are for sure brave souls who are ready to protest, but not many. Navalny called for “civil disobedience” yesterday via his YouTube channel, arguing there is strength in numbers.
Ultimately, I really do believe Ukraine emerges victorious, but I don’t dare to estimate the cost, how long it will take, how many lives will be lost, what kind of interim phony government may be set up by the invading Russians should they really succeed in taking Kyiv and the west not manage to stop them before they get there.
I see the apathy in Moscow as part of a larger problem. The CIS republics, when the USSR fell apart, all had to reinvent themselves as independent countries. They had to build institutions, learn to govern, establish new norms, whether democratic as in the Baltics or authoritarian as in Central Asia (I generalize). However, Moscow inherited Russia — what was the heart of the Soviet Union. Moscow never went through the process of de-communization, which ironically Putin spoke of in his crazy speech last Monday. In Moscow, you don’t get very far by protesting.
Russia’s capital is a magnet for ambitions and or wealthy young people from across the country. To make it in Moscow, you need connections and a bit of luck. Imagine New York, DC and LA all in one. That is Moscow in the Russian context. Where power, money and Hollywood come together. The one thing they all have in common? Don’t question those “above”. Keep your head down, don’t talk politics, take the money. This was perhaps not always the case, certainly not in the 1990s, and less so in the early 2000s when I lived there, but now? Since the crushing of the 2011 Bolotnaya protests, this has been the new norm.
This is not to say it’s impossible. Surely if everyone were to stand up, the Russian police would be overwhelmed, and Putin’s administration scared. But no one dares go first. Those who have dared so far, and there have been several thousand, have all been arrested.
There is so much information, linking here to a few threads I put together yesterday and today with videos and photos and information directly from Ukraine and Russia:
This morning telegram videos from around Ukraine
Last night tiktoks from around Ukraine
Yesterday afternoon scroll through for images from grocery stores, inspirational videos from local mayors
There is so much to read and I find myself not able to consume half of it due to lack of subscriptions (I cannot at the moment afford to subscribe to NYT, WP, Puck, all together — why doesn’t someone come up with a universal subscription app?!) and lack of time. I was recommended this article yesterday by one of my followers and I found it very moving: Why Vladimir Putin has already lost this war. This Substack is also a good overview of the news with a view from Russia and focus on financial market implications etc. Finally, if you read Russian, you absolutely must read this account from Kharkiv about what happened yesterday by Zerkalo. If you understand Russian, listen to this.
One uplifting news item — Elon Musk really did deliver Starlink to Ukraine and they are up and running in Kyiv! Just in time as there have been reports the next thing Russia plans to do in Ukraine is cut mobile and internet communications.
Thank you so much for reading. I hope this is useful, if it is, please share and tell your friends.
For now, I feel my language skills plus ability to google and post quickly on a mobile phone lend themselves best to this kind of journalism if you can call it that. I am of course not on the ground in Ukraine, but I feel like getting the word out is the best thing I can do right no to try and help. With the internet, you can really be somehow in multiple places at once.
A drop in the bucket, but it’s something. I can’t just sit and watch. Sometimes it’s too much and I need a little break. The images are horrific. The violence is horrific. The human cost is beyond comprehension. Young men, boys, dying on both sides, except the Russia’s soldiers have been sent on one old man’s insane personal crusade, while Ukraine’s soldiers are defending their homeland, their homes, their families.