I remember from the early days of the pandemic there are stages of grief: shock, sadness…and at some point you get to anger. I’m at the anger stage in all of this. So today’s post will be less about what happened last 24 hours (if you subscribe to my newsletter you are probably the kind of person glued to your screens refreshing the news anyway) and more about the future. The big question is, who is going to stop Putin, and how?
At the moment, Russia’s army continues its total attack on Ukraine, bombing indiscriminately, hitting civilian targets, apartment buildings, schools, hospitals, supermarkets. This newsletter from Moscow explains Russia has changed tactics. Not able to seize Kyiv in a few days as some perhaps naively expected, it has now turned to the Chechen wars destroy everything in its path type of warfare. A horror. Read this firsthand account from Kharkiv:
What many thought would never happen again in Europe (and frankly ignored when it happened in Syria) is happening, again. I can’t escape the feeling that everyone outside of Ukraine, aside from the many volunteers helping refugees at the border and in EU countries, is simply watching this all unfold on screens while politicians and celebrities say empty things like “I stand with Ukraine” and post photos of themselves with of Ukrainian flags. I mean, what the hell is this? Ukraine needs fighter jets, not sunflower jewellery on First Ladies.
Russia’s war on Ukraine (stop calling it the Ukraine war, Ukraine didn’t attack anyone!) isn’t a movie. It is real life, and death. Death has come to a country of 40 million people. Ukraine is fighting back with all of its might but by all expert analysis, that alone isn’t going to be enough against the Russian army.
So what are we going to do?
It’s great that many groups around the world have spring into action to provide humanitarian aid. The only problem is, by the time it gets there, all of Ukraine may already be occupied by Russia and Belarus. My children’s school is collection donations tomorrow and Friday. If you are in Austria and want to help, follow this organization and you can bring donations. One of the medicines they are in need of which stops excess bleeding I happen to have a few open prescriptions for, so I will go and do that today. But it feels like a tiny microscopic drop in an enormous ocean of pain and injustice. What will we do when there are millions of refugees? Where should people in Kharkiv flee to, Russia, the country that just invaded?
There are inspirational stories out of Ukraine, of how ordinary people are coming together to help each other through this tragedy.
I am haunted by words I read yesterday and now cannot remember where: Russia will never be forgiven for this in our lifetimes. You cannot forgive this. It is unforgivable. Yet the actual men from Russia on the ground sent to do the killing, on foot, in tanks, by plane, ship, armoured vehicles — many of them are just babies themselves. They don’t want this war, they don’t have a way out that lets them stay alive, so they follow orders and try not to think about what might happen. Ukraine is cleverly offering cash payments to them for desertion, but that will only work if they are certain Russia will lose this war. That is a bet I don’t think many people would make right now.
I keep thinking about what is happening inside Russia. Normal people are of course freaking out — everyone from Amex to Apple to Nike to Boeing have pulled out of the Russian market entirely effective immediately. Biden promised to go after oligarchs. Fine. But more importantly is the question, why is the apparatus still supporting Putin? Why has not a single brave soul come forward to say I quit, even if that might mean risking his/her own life? If you read Russian, read this piece about what is happening right now inside the Russian government. This in the FT talks about the oligarchs; doesn’t sound like we can count on any of them to initiate a palace coup.
With every day that goes by: more Ukrainian civilians are going to die, the humanitarian crisis of food, water, cold, no electricity, lost housing in the middle of what is still winter is going to escalate, more soldiers are going to die on all sides, more of Ukraine’s infrastructure will be destroyed, more of Russia’s economy will spin into an entirely man-made crisis as a result of near total isolation except for our purchases of oil and gas, Russia’s people will become even more isolated in their Russian state media bubble (last night Russia took Ekho Moskva radio and TV Rain off the air — this surprised and shocked many, I was not one of them), and most importantly, Russian armed forces will continue their all out attack on Ukraine’s entire territory and population with the goal of assassinating the current government and installing a puppet regime loyal to Moscow unless they are stopped.
So who is going to stop them, and how? Can NATO use air power without putting us on the brink of nuclear war? Does having nukes now mean that Russia can do whatever it wants to non-NATO countries and NATO will just stand by and watch and send weapons and post selfies with Ukrainian flags? War crimes are happening, there are loud calls for a tribunal to be set up, and Russia could give a fuck.
It is a shame America has a 78 year old president. He warned us, yes. He talked tough, yes. But ultimately, killing Russia economically will not stop the bombs from flying in Ukraine. Why? Because Putin is a man on an irrational mission to annex an entire country of 40 million people and “Russify” it. The man who speaks of fascism and genocide is carrying exactly that out himself.
For the first few days, I really thought one brave soul could knock off Putin, and that would be that. Now I am very worried. Because we haven’t seen any real signs of dissent within the Russian government elite. The population will suffer now the shock of all these sanctions hitting at once, but they are just as likely to blame the evil west for that than their own president, who they didn’t elect anyway. The overwhelming feeling in Russia is still that an individual is entirely powerless to do anything about the government. The idea that one should not talk about politics nor the war which isn’t being called a war but rather a special operation is prevalent.
I think it’s a leftover from the Soviet times, a memory of relatives sent to the gulag. I spoke with a Russian friend yesterday. She is in her 70s. I said, well, they can’t arrest millions of people if they all take to the streets at once. She replied, quickly, without a moments hesitation, “they will simply shoot them all”. I nodded in silence.
I didn’t study nuclear strategy. I don’t know game theory. I just know that we all have a huge collective Russia problem that is not going to away with the defeat of Ukraine and will not stop with Ukraine. What happens in Ukraine will come to us all next.
Some links to threads with videos and images I put together yesterday and today:
This morning update on situation on the ground in Ukraine and images of damage from attacks overnight
TikToks for a little glimpse into life in Ukraine from last night
Evening thread on Kyiv going dark, preparing for a hard night ahead
Every video you find online with a fireball left by a Russian missile always has a voice swearing in Russian and adding so much for the Russian “world” which in the Russian language also means “peace”:
For more on Cold War history, strategy in such situations, how this might end, I will refer you to the experts. In no particular order, some thought-provoking threads. They are not easy reading. I find myself getting very angry when I read them. It just all feels so incredibly unfair and wrong.
The issue I cannot get my head around are the limitations in dealing with a nuclear power and why this always seem to lead to a ridiculous dead end. What if Putin is just bluffing about the nukes because a narcissist wants to live forever and not blow up the history books he wants to go down in? What if the threat of nuclear war would lead to a palace coup within Russia? Surely the generals cannot all be thrilled with this senseless war killing Russian speakers making Russians international pariahs for the coming decades, and certainly not heroes if they destroy Ukraine in order to occupy it. What then?
The end game for Russia under any scenario appears to be a shitshow of total isolation and shame. The Ukrainian people will fight back until the last man standing. Of that I have no doubt. I am scared we are about to see a monumental loss of human life and tragedy on the scale Europe has not seen in decades, including the potential exodus of millions of people. Where will they go?
I hope more than anything I am totally wrong and someone out there has a plan.
Thank you for reading.