Day 8
The war continues, death and destruction of Ukraine continue. Russian Billionaire dominos. I look to Moscow, impact economic collapse, unravelling of 20 years of Putinism, control, panic, fascism.
It is day 8 of Putin’s war on Ukraine. The old man himself hasn’t addressed the Russian people yet since this “special operation” started. Yes, that’s what they are calling it. It is now illegal in Russia to call the war a war. Russians now face up to 15 years in prison for treason if you call it a war or share information about Russia’s actions in Ukraine online.
Children in schools across Russia are receiving emergency “history” lessons to “educate” them.
If someone wrote any of this as a Hollywood script, no one would have ever bought the movie. Too far fetched. Too over the top. Too unbelievable.
On the actual war on the ground — this is a useful update this morning of where things stand militarily, including a map. Fighting has been very intense, Mariupol is surrounded and as of last night was without water, electricity, mobile phones or heat. The Russians appear to be making advances from the south and the east. Air raids continue throughout the night across most the country. The devastation in Kharkiv this morning continues to be unprecedented in its scale and destruction of civilian targets.
The toll on Ukrainian civilians is horrendous. This map published yesterday showed which train stations are still functioning. A large part of the east of the country has no way out. If roads are bombed, bridges destroyed, the only way away from the war is to Russia, which isn’t going to happen. A humanitarian disaster looming. In winter without heat, electricity, water. One million Ukrainians have already fled their country since Russia’s invasion. That’s 1 in 40.
Meanwhile, in Moscow. There is a non-stop stream of disastrous news for the Russian government. Putin himself has not yet addressed the nation. People keep referring online to his bunker in the Urals. I have no idea if it’s true or not. Does it matter?
I’ve been thinking about something else. A week ago, I thought if just one person could be brave enough to take out Putin, there could be peace. But in this past week, we have seen the worst economic and political crisis Russia has experienced in decades and not a single minister or governor or general has resigned. What does that mean? That means they too are complicit in this criminal, insane war, they too are cowards, they too have blood on their hands. What does that in turn mean? It means there can be no peaceful transition of power in Russia. And what Russians fear more than anything else is a violent revolution.
Just listen to this video, for example, by Russia’s central banker, highly respected until very recently for years by westerners and Russians alike. She removes herself from any complicity in the horrific situation Russia finds itself in, and simply asks ordinary people to come together and not “fight over politics”. They are not fighting over politics. They are fighting over whether or not the Russian military should be murdering Ukrainian citizens on Ukrainian soil. And yet, this longtime head of the central bank, she represents perfectly the mentality of Russia’s elite, who built lives of creature comforts and luxury travel and glamorous Moscow in exchange for total loyalty to a regime that has now lost its mind and they act like they are powerless to do anything about it. Wrong. It is in their hands. More so then in the hands of the millions of Russians living in poverty who can barely afford to buy food at the end of each month.
Then I look at Moscow social media. Which, as I always say, is only a snapshot, should not be interpreted as a complete picture. It cannot be. But I do see emerging signs of real panic and exasperation by the upper middle class. There are rumours the Russian government might declare martial law on Friday. What if instead of revolting against their government, millions of Russians try and leave? They surely won’t all be allowed to leave, but what then? What if this horrific war in Ukraine spills into violence in Russia? Not entirely unimaginable scenario, one I doubt anyone in the west is really prepared for.
Some brave souls, especially the young, will stay and protest. They do so at great personal risk.
The Russian billionaires are falling into place like dominos. First, Abramovich announced he is selling Chelsea. Next, Usmanov’s $600 million yacht was seized in Germany. Third, Potanin resigned from the board of the Guggenheim. Finally, last night at 2am Deripaska wrote on his telegram about his fears of what happens when the fighting in Ukraine gets close to the country’s 15 (!) nuclear power generating reactors and 3 nuclear waste facilities.
The big questions now are how long can Ukraine hold back the Russian army and what is going to happen inside Russia as a result of this way, now already in day 8 and having caused immense economic and political pain within Russia, not to mention loss of life. Russia admitted for the first time yesterday casualties. They cited a figure of around 500 soldiers lost. Ukraine says nearly 9,000 Russian soldiers have died. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. A horrific loss of life, as is the toll on the Ukrainian side, on innocent civilians and soldiers bravely defending their homeland.
I don’t have any good answers, but I do see a fundamental shift inside Russia. People have woken up from their slumber. What they do with that newfound knowledge and anger is unclear.
I would like to recommend some journalism from Ukraine that I have found particularly useful, in no particular order
From Kyiv, on the bombing of Babyn Yar:
From Kharkiv, on the unfathomable destruction of Ukraine’s second largest, and predominantly Russian speaking city:
On the war’s secrets, the wounded Russian soldiers taking over Belarus hospitals:
Last, I would like to talk about symbolism. Russia marked its tanks, trucks and military equipment with letters like Z and V. These were meant to both mark which forces and also represent some patriotic messaging. What is scary is something else. Just like after Crimea was annexed, bumper stickers appeared in Russia saying hastag Crimea is ours (Krymnash), and orange and black flags symbolized support for Russia’s actions in 2014, the white Z symbol is appearing in Russia and some are already likening it to a new Swastika. I saw photos yesterday of cars in Russia with white Zs on them made out of tape. This newspaper article explains that drivers in Russia are putting Zs on their cars to “show their support for the special operation in the Donbass”. The ex-spa now Russian Duma deputy, Maria Butina, not only promoted Russia’s alternative to the iPhone yesterday, but also showed her viewers how to draw a white Z onto the lapel of your jackets. Yes, really.
Fascism is about symbols, and this stuff scares the crap out of me. Putin has nothing to sell to people: western products gone, internet slowed, soldiers dying, economy collapsing, murdering Ukrainian civilians, destroying Ukraine’s cities. He has nothing to say. Nothing. So what happens next is really a giant black box. In Russian, below, it says “In Russia they suggested to ban everything”. It’s not far from the truth.
I will continue to report what I see directly from Ukrainian online sources about what is happening there now. It is so painful but it is so important that the world does not look away, does not lose interest, maintains pressure on the international community so that peace may be achieved sooner rather than later. Not at any cost, however. What isn’t stopped in Ukraine goes beyond Ukraine. Moldova look vulnerable, for example. If Putin isn’t stopped soon, we should all be very worried.
Thank you for reading.