Day 9
Nuclear terrorism, humanitarian corridors, fleeing Russia vs hooked on propaganda, Putin/Macron talk, Europe's looming refugee crisis.
I took this photo on February 8, 2022, in Pripyat, Ukraine, inside the Chernobyl exclusion zone. What I didn’t know then is our tour was probably one of the last ones to make it inside before the war broke out. At the time, no one was even talking about Russia’s military build up. I was on a tour with seven others, all from different parts of Ukraine / Ukrainians visiting home from abroad, and no one even mentioned the threat. Not once. This particular building in Pripyat was used after the nuclear accident as a command center. The entire city was once a Soviet utopia, home to 50,000 people who lived privileged lives compared to other cities at the time. It was evacuated over the next few days (but not immediately! six couples even got married that Saturday after the accident happened at 1am), and the residents never returned home again.
Last night, at 2am Vienna time, Ukraine’s president Zelensky posted an urgent video appeal, and the Russian army was firing directly on the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant (now turned off, but still home to nuclear fuel) in Enerhodar. A thread with background here. A fire had broken out, was reportedly extinguished, and now there are unconfirmed reports the plant is already under the control of Russian troops.
Part of the problem is we are not dealing with a rational actor. We are dealing with a dictator hell bent on destroying Ukraine and “getting back at the west” in the process.
The experts have to tell us what you do in such situations, but the feedback from Macron is not great, namely that Putin is firmly in his bunker mindset. Do watch this video from Kyiv this morning by John Sweeney (below) in its entirety. John summarizes: Kyiv has held but is at risk of being encircled, Russian army making advances from the south, east.
I would add that Mariupol is surrounded and is asking for a humanitarian corridor and a temporary ceasefire, as was promised last night in Belarus. Kherson is under Russian control; they already managed to install Russian state TV.
John also talks about Macron’s call with Putin yesterday — the madman is still mad and it seems reading between the lines the west doesn’t really have a plan for this other than to kill Russia’s economy and sanction oligarchs, which it is doing in full force. Also have a look at this eerie video from Kyiv yesterday, and this drone video shot by the BBC over Borodyanka, Kyiv region.
Yesterday was an unprecedented day in Moscow, the likes of which the city has not experienced since the 1990s. I read in the morning on mommy groups about people asking where there will still flights to, how much cash per person was allowed ($10,000 but they will count the value of your iPhone towards the total), if you could still drive to Baku (?!). Reports authorities were even checking Russians’ mobile phones to see what was on their social media accounts as they left the country.
I called a Russian friend who lives abroad in the early afternoon. She told me she had spent the entire morning calling every man of draft age she is friends with in Moscow telling him to get the hell out of dodge if at all possible. Strong rumours the Russian government would not only pass martial law on Friday (today), but also soon ban draft-aged men from leaving the country, reading between the lines of proposals like this.
Some didn’t have Schengen visas, some have terminally ill parents they don’t want to leave behind, some didn’t know how they would finance a long stay abroad if Sberbank cards stopped working, others couldn’t leave behind children they shared custody of with ex-wives. A mess. The lucky ones made it across the borders of Baltic states yesterday by car. Others spend thousands of dollars on some of the last available flight tickets out of Russia. Destination? Anywhere but here.
Putin’s war (I am calling it that because I think it is the best name, although perhaps Putin’s ongoing acts of criminal terrorism would be better) is also a tale of two presidents. One old madman in a bunker, making crazy statements a la “I am all of you”, and one, sane, level-headed, 44 year old with a huge heart and enormous charisma, working 24/7, speaking to the world using every possible channel: social media, phone calls with foreign leaders, meeting in person with journalists.
I am your neighbour, you don’t have to keep me at a 30 meter distance. I don’t bite. I am a normal man. Sit with me. Who are you afraid of? We aren’t threatening anyone. We aren’t threatening anyone, we aren’t terrorists, we aren’t robbing banks. And we also aren’t grabbing foreign lands. (my translation, listen below)
On Putin, this thread is a good explainer:
This is also a good explanation of Putin’s current mental state (TL;DR very worrying not great).
The grip is tightening in Russia around everything. They are slowing if not outright banning social media platforms, what is left of independent journalism, and the Russian Duma this morning passed in second and third readings new criminal punishments for “spreading fake information about Russia’s army”: up to 15 years in prison. More details in Russian here.
Some Russians are clearly not bothered, they were too busy queuing for IKEA which is closing its doors in Russia. You can imagine how residents of Kharkiv which has been brutally bombed for days felt when they saw this. Read this here.
While tuned-in Muscovites with money and means are trying to get out of Russia, it is important to remember just how much of the Russian population has consumed a steady died of Russian TV and is deathly afraid of saying anything that might upset the authorities. Therefore take all those “I’m 100% for Putin no matter what he does” street interviews with an enormous spoonful of salt.
Today I would also like to share with you what I have been reading to better understand the situation in Ukraine on the ground. In no particular order:
Beautifully written. I don’t want to spoil it for you. Must read:
On spending a night in the subway with one of Ukraine’s leading journalists:
On what happens with the Russians take over a city (TL;DR the chickens at the chicken factory have nothing to eat and may soon starve — public health disaster)
I don’t always agree with Anne, but the parallels to what Stalin did to “make communists out of Ukrainian peasants” (intentionally starve millions of them to death), and what Putin wants to do to Ukraine’s people, are thought-provoking. Putin seems not only to want to enlarge Russia’s map, but also to control minds. He is madly delusional. Anyone who has been to Ukraine in the last ten years would know that is impossible.
A few more links with updates from Ukrainian social media:
Yesterday afternoon thread from Ukraine.
Last night’s TikToks
Morning thread from Ukraine.
I can’t make any predictions for you today. I am very worried about the deliberate attacks on nuclear power plants. I am very worried about what will happen to Kyiv in the coming days. I am very worried about the humanitarian corridors which desperately need to be set up so that transport may be arranged for the millions of Ukrainians who will want to flee to the west, to Europe. There are entire cities in Ukraine now without water, electricity, mobile communications, heat. Food and medicines will be running low. There are an uncounted number of civilian casualties. I am worried Europe and the world are not prepared, not yet.
I wrote this thread early yesterday afternoon, and I still hold it to be true. Putin’s war in Ukraine will eventually spill into Russia and he will see his end because of it. But how long that takes, how much pain, how it gets there, I do not know.
I will share later today on my Twitter some information from Russian-speaking sources here in Vienna on what we can do to help: addresses for donations, what they need most.
If you enjoy reading this Substack, please share it with your friends. I would love to grow my audience. Maybe one day even a real publication will ask me to write something! You never know. I feel quite powerless at the moment, so I decided the least I can do is use my Russian language skills and quick fingers on my iPhone to share the news with you all as it emerges, to share what I am hearing in both Ukraine and Russia. Thank you for reading.
Hello! I created from official sources a list of organizations that are currently needing donations to help civilians in Ukraine. I'd really appreciate if you could share it within your community so we can improve the help we're giving. Thank you!
https://tosdata.substack.com/p/list-of-organizations-needing-your?s=w
Hello! I created from official sources a list of organizations that are currently needing donations to help civilians in Ukraine. I'd really appreciate if you could share it within your community so we can improve the help we're giving. Thank you!
https://tosdata.substack.com/p/list-of-organizations-needing-your?s=w