Day 9

Nuclear terrorism, humanitarian corridors, fleeing Russia vs hooked on propaganda, Putin/Macron talk, Europe's looming refugee crisis.

I took this photo on February 8, 2022, in Pripyat, Ukraine, inside the Chernobyl exclusion zone. What I didn’t know then is our tour was probably one of the last ones to make it inside before the war broke out. At the time, no one was even talking about Russia’s military build up. I was on a tour with seven others, all from different parts of Ukraine / Ukrainians visiting home from abroad, and no one even mentioned the threat. Not once. This particular building in Pripyat was used after the nuclear accident as a command center. The entire city was once a Soviet utopia, home to 50,000 people who lived privileged lives compared to other cities at the time. It was evacuated over the next few days (but not immediately! six couples even got married that Saturday after the accident happened at 1am), and the residents never returned home again.

Last night, at 2am Vienna time, Ukraine’s president Zelensky posted an urgent video appeal, and the Russian army was firing directly on the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant (now turned off, but still home to nuclear fuel) in Enerhodar. A thread with background here. A fire had broken out, was reportedly extinguished, and now there are unconfirmed reports the plant is already under the control of Russian troops.

Volodymyr Yermolenko @yermolenko_v

Nuclear terrorism: we have to learn this word. Russians are now in Chornobyl, and try to seize Energodar, which hosts the biggest nuclear power plant in Europe, Zaporizka NPP. Tactics: hold NPPs as hostages, threatening to create nuclear disaster without even using nuclear bomb

Part of the problem is we are not dealing with a rational actor. We are dealing with a dictator hell bent on destroying Ukraine and “getting back at the west” in the process.

Elke Schüßler @ElkeSchuessler

@tanjamaier17 Exactly. He is a dictator, not a president. And this is terror, not a war. I think we should change our language.

The experts have to tell us what you do in such situations, but the feedback from Macron is not great, namely that Putin is firmly in his bunker mindset. Do watch this video from Kyiv this morning by John Sweeney (below) in its entirety. John summarizes: Kyiv has held but is at risk of being encircled, Russian army making advances from the south, east.

I would add that Mariupol is surrounded and is asking for a humanitarian corridor and a temporary ceasefire, as was promised last night in Belarus. Kherson is under Russian control; they already managed to install Russian state TV.

John also talks about Macron’s call with Putin yesterday — the madman is still mad and it seems reading between the lines the west doesn’t really have a plan for this other than to kill Russia’s economy and sanction oligarchs, which it is doing in full force. Also have a look at this eerie video from Kyiv yesterday, and this drone video shot by the BBC over Borodyanka, Kyiv region.

John Sweeney @johnsweeneyroar

#KyivDiary Vladimir Putin's war, Day9 The worst is yet to come.

Yesterday was an unprecedented day in Moscow, the likes of which the city has not experienced since the 1990s. I read in the morning on mommy groups about people asking where there will still flights to, how much cash per person was allowed ($10,000 but they will count the value of your iPhone towards the total), if you could still drive to Baku (?!). Reports authorities were even checking Russians’ mobile phones to see what was on their social media accounts as they left the country.

I called a Russian friend who lives abroad in the early afternoon. She told me she had spent the entire morning calling every man of draft age she is friends with in Moscow telling him to get the hell out of dodge if at all possible. Strong rumours the Russian government would not only pass martial law on Friday (today), but also soon ban draft-aged men from leaving the country, reading between the lines of proposals like this.

Tanja Maier @tanjamaier17

Update: Russian men of draft age who are able to leave the Moscow and have some money are trying to get out. Now. Today. A friend says they are stopping people at airports checking your phones, how much money, there are no flight tix left, some try by car, if have visa.

Some didn’t have Schengen visas, some have terminally ill parents they don’t want to leave behind, some didn’t know how they would finance a long stay abroad if Sberbank cards stopped working, others couldn’t leave behind children they shared custody of with ex-wives. A mess. The lucky ones made it across the borders of Baltic states yesterday by car. Others spend thousands of dollars on some of the last available flight tickets out of Russia. Destination? Anywhere but here.

Julia Ioffe @juliaioffe

A friend from Moscow is racing toward the border with the Baltics, has been driving all night—no plane tickets left. "We're trying to get there before the president's address to the nation," friend says, referring to widespread rumors that Putin is about to declare martial law.

Julia Ioffe @juliaioffe

"Stop texting me," friend asks, "I'm trying to clean out my phone. They're searching everyone's phone at the border. I'll write to you once I'm on the other side."

Putin’s war (I am calling it that because I think it is the best name, although perhaps Putin’s ongoing acts of criminal terrorism would be better) is also a tale of two presidents. One old madman in a bunker, making crazy statements a la “I am all of you”, and one, sane, level-headed, 44 year old with a huge heart and enormous charisma, working 24/7, speaking to the world using every possible channel: social media, phone calls with foreign leaders, meeting in person with journalists.

I am your neighbour, you don’t have to keep me at a 30 meter distance. I don’t bite. I am a normal man. Sit with me. Who are you afraid of? We aren’t threatening anyone. We aren’t threatening anyone, we aren’t terrorists, we aren’t robbing banks. And we also aren’t grabbing foreign lands. (my translation, listen below)

max seddon @maxseddon

Zelensky to Putin: "Good Lord, what do you want? Leave our land. If you don't want to leave now, sit down with me at the negotiating table. But not from 30 meters away, like with Macron and Scholz. Sit down with me and talk. What are you afraid of? We're no threat to anyone."

On Putin, this thread is a good explainer:

Oxana Shevel @OxanaShevel

How do I say it clearly. Putin already believes the west is out to get him and always was. This was the thrust of his crazy pre-invasion speech. Many ppl in 🇷🇺 believe this too - that they are not fighting war against 🇺🇦 but war to defend Russia. Crazy but true. 1/

This is also a good explanation of Putin’s current mental state (TL;DR very worrying not great).

The grip is tightening in Russia around everything. They are slowing if not outright banning social media platforms, what is left of independent journalism, and the Russian Duma this morning passed in second and third readings new criminal punishments for “spreading fake information about Russia’s army”: up to 15 years in prison. More details in Russian here.

Лентач @oldLentach

Госдума единогласно приняла во втором и третьем чтениях поправки о наказании до 15 лет колонии за фейки о российской армии

Some Russians are clearly not bothered, they were too busy queuing for IKEA which is closing its doors in Russia. You can imagine how residents of Kharkiv which has been brutally bombed for days felt when they saw this. Read this here.

While tuned-in Muscovites with money and means are trying to get out of Russia, it is important to remember just how much of the Russian population has consumed a steady died of Russian TV and is deathly afraid of saying anything that might upset the authorities. Therefore take all those “I’m 100% for Putin no matter what he does” street interviews with an enormous spoonful of salt.

Michael Idov 🌻 @michaelidov

I've watched a few of these now and I am seeing next to no fascistic fervor. What I'm seeing is abject terror — of being stopped on the street, of being asked a question, of accidentally saying something wrong, of facing the flimsiness of one's own barely memorized excuses

olexander scherba🇺🇦 @olex_scherba

Some Russians don’t believe it’s war. Others believe, but thinks it’s alright. The others are outraged about sanctions. But not a single one in this video feels Ukraine’s pain. So much for “two brotherly peoples”. Is it propaganda or have they always been this numb? https://t.co/ZyYCM2dCVR

Today I would also like to share with you what I have been reading to better understand the situation in Ukraine on the ground. In no particular order:

Beautifully written. I don’t want to spoil it for you. Must read:

The New Statesman @NewStatesman

The Ukrainians have enough fire-power to destroy the column and most of the Russian soldiers in it, but I suspect they fear that if they do that then Putin will rocket Kyiv to pieces, writes @johnsweeneyroar.

newstatesman.comDispatch from Kyiv: the madness of Putin’s warIn Ukraine’s capital, the absurdity and tragedy of the conflict is everywhere.

On spending a night in the subway with one of Ukraine’s leading journalists:

Joshua Yaffa @yaffaesque

With missiles raining down on Kyiv nightly, the city’s metro stations have become improvised bomb shelters. I spent the night in one with my friend @berdynskykh_k and her family. A tragic snapshot of a city at war.

newyorker.comInside Kyiv’s Metro, a Citywide Bomb ShelterAcross Ukraine, especially in the cities where Russia’s onslaught has been particularly intense, underground spaces have become precious.

On what happens with the Russians take over a city (TL;DR the chickens at the chicken factory have nothing to eat and may soon starve — public health disaster)

Polina Ivanova @polinaivanovva

What happens when Russian troops roll in and take control — a report on Ukrainian towns living through their first days of Russian occupation. And fighting back. With @JohnReedwrites

on.ft.comSubscribe to read | Financial TimesNews, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

I don’t always agree with Anne, but the parallels to what Stalin did to “make communists out of Ukrainian peasants” (intentionally starve millions of them to death), and what Putin wants to do to Ukraine’s people, are thought-provoking. Putin seems not only to want to enlarge Russia’s map, but also to control minds. He is madly delusional. Anyone who has been to Ukraine in the last ten years would know that is impossible.

Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum

This is now genocidal thinking. The "bad" Ukrainians have to be eliminated to make way for "good" Russified Ukrainians. Exactly what Stalin was thinking at the time of the Holodomor

max seddon @maxseddon

Putin speaking to his security council. "I will never abandon my conviction that Russians and Ukrainians are one people [...] but the way the battle is going shows we are fighting neo-Nazis." He claims Ukraine is using civilians and foreigners as "human shields." https://t.co/spgZV9U1MC

A few more links with updates from Ukrainian social media:

Yesterday afternoon thread from Ukraine.

Last night’s TikToks

Morning thread from Ukraine.

I can’t make any predictions for you today. I am very worried about the deliberate attacks on nuclear power plants. I am very worried about what will happen to Kyiv in the coming days. I am very worried about the humanitarian corridors which desperately need to be set up so that transport may be arranged for the millions of Ukrainians who will want to flee to the west, to Europe. There are entire cities in Ukraine now without water, electricity, mobile communications, heat. Food and medicines will be running low. There are an uncounted number of civilian casualties. I am worried Europe and the world are not prepared, not yet.

I wrote this thread early yesterday afternoon, and I still hold it to be true. Putin’s war in Ukraine will eventually spill into Russia and he will see his end because of it. But how long that takes, how much pain, how it gets there, I do not know.

Tanja Maier @tanjamaier17

Russia intensifies its criminal attacks on civilian targets in Ukrainian cities, cuts off supplies to cities already encircled. Russia’s military purposely takes out electricity, water, heat, communications seeking to silence, scare, starve Ukraine into submission. It won’t work.

I will share later today on my Twitter some information from Russian-speaking sources here in Vienna on what we can do to help: addresses for donations, what they need most.

If you enjoy reading this Substack, please share it with your friends. I would love to grow my audience. Maybe one day even a real publication will ask me to write something! You never know. I feel quite powerless at the moment, so I decided the least I can do is use my Russian language skills and quick fingers on my iPhone to share the news with you all as it emerges, to share what I am hearing in both Ukraine and Russia. Thank you for reading.

Christiaan Triebert @trbrtc

Hanna Hrabarska, a longtime friend of mine, is fleeing her country with her mother. Being a photographer, she's documenting her journey from Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih to Uzhhorod. Anyone interested in her work, or reaching out to her for media inquiries, see: instagram.com/hanna.hrabarska