Disconnected
1 May is still "Labor Day" in Austria. Finally getting a moment to sit down and share a LOT of recommended reading with you all.
I woke up this morning (we have a day off on a Wednesday, thanks to the historical labor movement in these parts) and scrolled through X, trying to figure out which scenes were from Tbilisi and which were from Columbia University. I don’t really have any commentary to add other than some people in some parts of the world have to wage real struggle for democracy and freedom, and take on real risks, and others obviously enjoy cosplay in front of the world’s media. I keep thinking about the price tag of an Ivy League education, having just gone through the process of applying for financial aid, and cannot imagine how selfish one has to be to put at risk something you are paying so much for. I do not understand any of it, I cannot get my head around it, it seems like totally self-created drama for the sake of a performance, and so I will leave it at that.
My thoughts have been firmly on the ground, thinking about Ukraine, and Russia, speaking with people here, worrying about what will happen in the elections here in Austria later this year. And I must preface all of this by saying that my days have been now comprised of everything I was doing before (distributing Hofer cards, managing my Telegram group, helping with some in-person translation, writing this when I find the time to concentrate, and managing three teenagers), with the added activity of going nearly every day to the hospital by train to visit my dear friend Mama Olya, a stroke patient. I wrote this yesterday:
It has been hard to concentrate on anything more than putting out the daily fires in front of you. Having said that, I have read and seen so much this week, I would like to share all of that with you here, in case you too have not had the time or energy to keep up.
First, western journalists have finally begun to report on the outrage at the Ukrainian government for its announcement that it will no longer provide ANY consular services to Ukrainian men abroad, and that in order to receive such services, all said men between the ages of 18 and 60 must report first to a military registration office in Ukraine. I can say with real confidence that this new law will not result in anyone actually going back to Ukraine. In the conversations I have with Ukrainian men here, the overwhelming feeling is that for many, this is a nail in the coffin. This is a message that their families’ futures are elsewhere, not in Ukraine. As one man told me, who is trying very hard to feed his two kids and wife on a manual labor salary (he is officially employed as a painter in Austria despite having run his own business in Ukraine), he feels like he served his time, he did his mandatory army duty after finishing school, he says when you are in Ukraine you see everywhere the wounded, you see what the war does, you cannot expect men to turn their backs on their families for this. It does come down to a choice between serving one’s country or one’s immediate family.
Ukraine’s draft dodgers are living in fear: The Economist from Odesa.
“Vladyslav, who is 24, also began the war as a committed patriot. In the early months, he watched the reports of Russian atrocities, and felt a strong urge to fight. Then the males in his life started to leave— they went east, to the front line. Friends, relatives, his father and step-father all became soldiers. And Vladyslav started receiving chilling updates about the reality of war with too little ammunition. Many of his friends died. A colleague was killed just three days after being sent to Bakhmut. Another was assumed dead after being captured in Mariupol, only to be later returned in a prisoner exchange, saying he had been tortured. Vladyslav’s family now urge him to stay clear of the conscription officers who prowl Odessa’s streets. He is heeding their advice and hiding. ‘It’s not that I’m scared to fight, but I’m scared because I know what’s happening out there.’”
Roland Oliphant writes for The Telegraph, “Wasn't difficult to find Ukrainian men abroad who resent being pressured to go back - was surprised to find that some serving soldiers agree new rule is unfair, won't fix recruitment crisis, and ignores the recruiting reforms they really want:”
‘Why should I return to fight?’ Ukrainian men living abroad say
Yesterday I also came across this thread written by a Ukrainian man explaining the myriad of issues with this new law. I would add that after one hears about the horrors of the battlefield, under-armed, and outnumbered, one is immediately thereafter reminded of corruption across all levels of Ukrainian officials. This too did not disappear when the war started, and only a fool would believe that influential people are sending their sons to serve. Their sons are likely long-gone in Monaco or Dubai. This is also common knowledge. All I can say on this topic is I hope the Ukrainian government will eventually come to its senses and also that “host” countries in the EU and elsewhere will make a plan to recognise “expired” Ukrainian passports because this issue will not go away so quickly, and as a foreigner in a new country, a valid home country passport is your primary form of ID.
Next, I would like to pivot to Russia. An interesting report on the war economy by an economist who herself once worked for the Central Bank.
"The Russian economy resembles a marathon runner battling the flu yet bolstered by steroids, propelling them forward [...] The runner faces slim odds of winning but persists, sustained by the performance-enhancing effects of the steroids…"
How Might the Kremlin Respond to Aid Package for Ukraine?
This report makes it sound like despite battling “the flu”, Russia is pretty economically unstoppable at the moment. Which matches with this advert spotted in St. Petersburg yesterday, offering compensation which would be tempting even in many Western European countries to young men who volunteer to fight in Ukraine:
What you hear from inside Russia is those making money from the state, who are sanctioned etc. and cannot spend it really outside of Russia, are buying up real estate, collecting what they can now. Sanctions in a way have a reverse effect in that they keep the money in Russia, recirculating, reinvigorating that sheltered economy. In the good old days much of that money would have been spent on yachts and villas in the south of France. Anyone on the war money drip is now much more likely to have to spend that money at home. Russians who have left Russia for good are selling their assets, like expensive apartments and dachas, and the buyers are, ironically, those who have worked to create this situation in the first place, those who have not wavered from the Kremlin’s side in all this.
Meanwhile, the FT released a big report this week about the European banks who have paid a whopping $800 million in taxes in Russia into Putin’s war coffers, the top of that list being none other than Austria’s infamous Raiffeisen.
Western banks in Russia paid €800mn in taxes to Kremlin last year
“More than half of the European banks’ €800mn tax payments correspond to Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International, which has the largest presence in Russia of the foreign lenders. RBI’s Russian profits more than tripled to €1.8bn between 2021 and 2023, accounting for half of the Austrian group’s total profit, compared with about a third before the war.”
The worst part? No one bats an eyelash. Not here, not anywhere. That Raiffeisen is ok with its role as Dr. Evil of the European banks, and all of Europe turns a blind eye, has become the new normal. This part is very upsetting. That at the end of the day, morals have nothing to do with anything, the only thing anyone cares about is returns to shareholders, and no matter how much flag waving politicians do, nothing chances this equation. It is barely a topic in Austria despite a few intellectuals outraged on X.
I think that is what is so hard about living in the modern era. No one feels anything anymore, certainly not enough to want to do something about it. I often wonder what it would take to wake Austrians up, for example. There have been (and I don’t want to get into all the details here because I have not been following them closely enough — do read this thread by Marcus How for insights) recent scandals involving the far right party FPÖ and its ties to Russia, so much so that several former and active politicians may be called into testify before a government inquiry body, and yet…will it matter at all to voters in September, many of whom fell into the party’s arms over its strong anti-immigrant, anti-EU, pro-covid conspiracy theory populist talking points? I don’t think they will care about Russian influence either. Just like Trump’s voters, many of them, think Putin isn’t such a bad guy, at least he rules with an iron fist, etc.
The news from the war in Ukraine itself is not good. Everyone I speak with is talking “years” more, although I cannot imagine how the country can sustain this for years more. There seems to be consensus from recent reporting that Russia is poised to take more territory and Ukraine may have not choice but to retreat.
A detailed report from the BBC:
Situation on frontline has worsened, Ukraine army chief says
Although I tend to stay away from all the military details due to both lack of knowledge and serious discomfort with the entire business of war, I would recommend reading this detailed thread by Dara Masicot about Russia and its summer plans, militarily. She concludes:
I would only add that all of these analyses, whether from DC or Brussels, do not fully capture the entire picture if they also do not calculate in what moral is like right now inside Ukraine’s armed forces. I also cannot of course measure this, but anecdotally, it must be surely at one of the lowest points since the war began, despite the U.S. finally passing the aid package.
I would also recommend reading Christopher Miller’s reporting for FT on the military situation going into summer, in full here.
”The US aid does not address what Ukrainian and western officials say is Kyiv’s most glaring problem — an inability to match the enormous numbers of men Russia has called up to fight.”
In this context, Russia is turning to e-mobilization come next fall, when its next round of a draft will take place. Per BBC Russia reporting, as of November 1, all Russian men issued an electronic summons will be banned from leaving the country. Statistically, Russia has a vast supply of men it can force to enlist. The same cannot be said for Ukraine. This was the case on day one and it is still the case.
For more on the military situation, I would recommend this English translation of a recent thread by analyst Konrad Muzyka. He concludes:
“We have reached the point where the situation on the frontline is the worst since March 2022. The Russians' numerical superiority continues to grow, and so does the number of attacks. Ukraine has not survived the darkest hour. It is yet to begin."
I would unfortunately have to agree. I am receiving more messages asking about resources in Austria from families in Kharkiv or having recently left Kharkiv. I see no visible signs that the EU is preparing additional housing for a potential wave of new civilian arrivals from Ukraine. But this is par for the course. They always react as opposed to acting pro-actively, not wanting to make it look like Europe is waiting with open arms. And it is true, the social system here is stretched. The inflow of non-German speaking refugees (starting in 2015, and not from Ukraine) has put a huge strain on the medical and educational systems in major cities like Vienna. This has exacerbated pre-existing structural problems, and there are no easy solutions. You meet teachers who are happy to go the extra mile, and you meet teachers, burnt out and frustrated, who don’t have the patience to help a traumatised child who is struggling so much to learn a new language. The social network was built here by social democrats for social democrats of their own culture, and is now being tested by new arrivals from a variety of cultures and family compositions. This will surely be reflected in the voting patterns next September, and I see little reason for hope, particularly with some on both political left and right still calling for “neutrality” whatever the hell that means (other than paying $400 million in taxes to Putin).
In other, totally unrelated (well, not completely) reading, I would recommend two additional stories. The first about Trump’s family trying to build luxury condos in downtown Belgrade on the site of the 1999 NATO bombing, and the second, a wild story by Christo Grozev and team about a real-life “The Americans” couple originally from Russia via Czech Republic and Greece.
A Trump-style tower in Belgrade? Serbs say it reopens war wounds.
The Czech illegals: Husband and wife outed as GRU spies aiding bombings and poisonings across Europe
Finally, a HUGE thank you for the recent generous donations of Hofer cards. I was able to send out a total of 72 (!!!) €50 gift certificates over this past week, and just received another 25 more. Thank you. I am still receiving messages every day asking for help for a myriad of reasons, and geographically we are supporting families and pensioners across Austria. This really warms my heart to know that we at Cards for Ukraine are still able to help in this small but meaningful way.
I received this lovely photo over Telegram with the text in German at 11pm last night:
To all of you enjoying a well-deserved day off today, enjoy. To all of you living in countries where the malls are working today, I envy you. I actually even called Bratislava and was disappointed to learn they too are closed.
Apologies that I have not been able to write as frequently as I would like. These hospital visits have been taking a toll, both in terms of time and emotionally. (As you can see, I am always reading, and I try to save articles to compile recommendations all in one place for you.)