Gloves off
The "surprising" capture of Venezuela's leader by U.S. special forces today. Plus several big (gift) reads for you: U.S. turning on Ukraine, Russian army killing its own, Trump Inc.
“Mama, the U.S. has Maduro. They attacked Venezuela”
“Already?!”
Our conversation over breakfast this morning with my eldest. America was still sleeping when the news broke. We now even have the graphic visual description, straight out of a movie. I feel like we have even seen this scene before, I just cannot remember when.
For Trump personally, it is one hell of a victory. His fans do not care about petty things like international law and the right way of doing things. Like an action hero in a Hollywood movie, he managed to send in American good guys to get out a bad guy who happened to be running a very poor country sitting on the world’s largest oil reserves. If you pitched it, producers would have told the writer’s room to go back to the drawing board and come up with something more original, a plot twist?
I think Ian Bremmer summed it up pretty well:
Some have commented online they are surprised Russia didn’t lift a finger to protect Maduro who supposedly had some kind of security guarantees from them. First, of course Russia didn’t interfere in America’s backyard, precisely because it wants to be able to do whatever the hell it pleases in its own backyard (e.g. Ukraine and beyond). Second, I really think given the current state of Russia-U.S. talks (meaning there is ongoing dialog between both sides amongst various interlocators and agencies), Russia had to have been given a heads up. Ditto for China. Probably the only ones left in the dark were the EU, who are “closely monitoring” (not kidding, unfortunately).
All of the above.
A Chinese representative reportedly met with Maduro hours before his capture. Coincidence or not I certainly have no idea, but I do not think Trump, despite his love of big, bold moves which catch everyone by surprise, would have done this without at least whispering to China and Russia first. Naturally, I also immediately thought about Taiwan.
What is also very interesting is the reactions within the U.S. Republican Senator Mike Lee (Utah) first tweeted asking the obvious question: how did Trump do this without asking Congress for a declaration of war? Two hours later, he tweets again, this time explaining he just got off the phone with Secretetary of State Rubio, who clarified everything.
Ducks falling in orderly lines just like they do in Russia.
In fact, you don’t have to know anything about Latin America to have seen what the U.S. was about to do. These days, knowing a lot about Russia is helping me to see Trump’s America in the cynical light it deserves to be viewed through. On October 26, I wrote, on Venezuela, a topic I don’t know much about:
It was obvious to anyone reading between the lines what the U.S. was getting up to with the attacks on fishing boats and drug traffickers and whatever they want to call them in the seas near Venezuela. The end game was clear. I was genuinely surprised today to read some obserbers with far larger audiences than mine say they did not have this on their predictions list for 2026. How could you not? It would be the same as saying China will never do anything about Taiwan. Granted, the U.S. focus on Venezuela developed over a much shorter period of time and Trump has zero other arguments to make for what he just did. In fact, it is hard to make any arguments at all. He just did it because he could and because he knew he would get away with it.
I read somewhere today that Ukraine can now forget about bringing Putin or anyone else to trial for war crimes. I think that is a fair statement. I am no lawyer, but I think the concept of international law has now been debunked, unenforceable. What will the UN say on Monday? Does it matter? Did a bicycle fall over in China? I am old enough to remember the announcement of Operation Desert Storm. It took them years and countless American lives to get Saddam Hussein. It was also about oil. It was a shitshow. Trump has learned from the mistakes of past Republican leaders. I am curious what oil stocks will do on Monday. How I would love to be a fly on the wall inside the offices of Chevron right now.
This. This is so embarrassing I nearly spat out my iced coffee.
And then there is poor Greenland, as some remembered today:
All of this makes me think back to Putin’s obsession with history and maps. Trump too isn’t getting any younger. While kidnapping the leader of Venezuela and his wife in their sleep and furrying them by helicopter “it was a nice ride” and ship to New York to stand trial isn’t adding a 51st state (not yet at least), it certainly will put Trump in the history books for 2026 for more than just building a new ballroom in the White House. “Never seen anything like it” were Trump’s words as he watched the whole operation live on a TV screen, “describing the raid as ‘like a television show’ and signalling that Washington now plans to be ‘strongly involved’ in Venezuela’s oil industry.”
So there is that. The map of the Americas may change yet. The ownership of oil reserves certainly will. I keep thinking about, ironically given the ‘war on drugs’ cocaine being snorted in the excitement. Read the U.S.-Ukraine article below for some clever little references to powder entering officials’ noses before talking tough in public.
In other news, I wanted to share three excellent long reads from the New York Times I read over the past week. The first is a play-by-play account of essentially how the U.S. turned on Ukraine, and cuddled up to Russia. Who did what, how it played out. The details are really illustrative, even if you have been following along closely. The second is a terribly graphic description of how the Russian army treats its own, only possible thanks to thousands of letters written to the Russian government by concerned relatives which were posted online by mistake: they wrote of officers ordering wounded soldiers back into battle, officers collecting bribes from their conscripts to not be sent to the zero line, and then killing those who dare speak up. One woman is interviewed who lost her husband in the Russian wars in Chechnya in the 1990s and now her son is MIA (assumed killed by his commanders who were extorting money from him), and she is shocked that this could happen in the Russian army. I personally do not understand the shock. Anyone who has lived in Russia knows there are no limits to the cruelty humans are capable of inflicting upon each other, and every possible power imbalance can be used to make money. The third article is a well-researched look into all of Trump Inc.’s business interests and who they are doing deals with, including foreign nations, during his presidency. Useful that someone is at least trying to keep score. A tangled web, indeed (wrote this before being reminded of the title, lol).
The Separation: Inside the Unraveling U.S.-Ukraine Partnership (gift article)
How Russia’s War Machine Brutalizes and Exploits Its Own Soldiers (gift article)
Trump’s Tangled Web of Deal-Making, Policy and Riches (gift article)
I am told Trump’s press conference is starting. My cue to sign off. Happy new year! Thank you to all of you who continue to support my writing with a paid subscription.