Love conquers all
Thinking about Ukraine this Valentine's Day
Scrolling through my camera roll I found this photo, taken last week at a Lviv Croissants cafe in Kyiv. The blue cursive next to the red heart says “love conquers all” in Russian. Let’s hope. We must hope. It’s all we have.
As German chancellor Scholz makes his way to Kyiv today, a quick update on what’s happened since yesterday. Scholz is, interestingly, flying back to Berlin tonight rather than spending the night in Kyiv before heading to Moscow. I suppose his team decided there is no need to fly over all that military equipment in southern Belarus?
Some commercial flights to Ukraine have been cancelled, while others are still flying. There was a bit of alarm when a Bratislava - Kyiv flight took off yesterday and returned to Bratislava one hour later, but it eventually took off again and landed in Kyiv late last night. Meanwhile, there are reports of a number of private jets leaving Kyiv this weekend, no surprise given the circumstances. It is important to stress that foreign journalists are still very much on the ground and the panic is, at the moment, still mostly in DC rather than Kyiv, which continues to try to speak to everyone.
Ukrainian president Zelensky spoke with US president Biden yesterday afternoon. Zelensky invited Biden to visit Kyiv as soon as possible. I very much doubt that will happen. If the Americans have managed not to infect our 78 year old president with covid, they certainly aren’t going to risk sending him to Ukraine right now when Russia might invade at “any minute” per their own forecasts. Speaking of forecasts, important to remember this doomsday posturing which occurred on Friday and is certainly a screenshot for the ages. Completely reckless behaviour by an Atlantic Council “expert” who should know better.
Zelensky continues to remain calm and talk about the need for dialogue and diplomacy. Israel may be about to play a rather interesting role, with Ukrainian president Zelensky (who is Jewish) asking Israel to host a summit between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents. A smart move by Ukraine and one that Russia will surely turn down. It is becoming increasingly more apparent that Russia only seeks negotiations as a way to buy time, but has no real interest in diplomatic solutions. Putin has captivated the world’s attention, and is surely simply enjoying the moment.
As we look to Germany’s visit to Ukraine today, it is important to remember that although Germany received a lot of criticism for its refusal to send military or “lethal” aid to Ukraine, it may make up for that in an economic package. Ukraine’s economy is being hit extremely hard now, with all this panic (thanks, Washington) basically freezing economic activity and foreign investment, and Germany is an important source of economic aid for Ukraine. Ukraine wasn’t in a great spot before this happened, it will be economically crippled now. If Germany doesn’t want to send guns, the least it can do is send money.
This long read by Peter Pomerantsev is excellent on Germany’s fundamental Russia problem and how this is playing out at the moment. Austria is already getting predictably wobbly, as I wrote yesterday.
While the world waits to see what if anything Germany is going to do today and tomorrow to try and calm the situation down and support Ukraine, Ukraine’s own ambassador to the UK said on a talk show yesterday that it would consider walking away from its announced goal to one day join NATO if that would help turn down the temperature. Interesting and logical, and yet I doubt Moscow cares because this whole thing isn’t about any one particular issue, it is a single bully holding the world hostage and waiting for us all to blink.
Some interesting, much more credible analysis from Kyiv (compared to western media tabloid maps which are incidentally ripping their way through Russian language TikTok right now all with the dreaded Feb 16 date) on what a potential Russian invasion might look like and its strengths and weaknesses. This is a very interesting read now translated into English by Ukrainian experts.
One other topic which no one wants to discuss because it is messy, but I think is important to bring up as I saw today how western media ignore it and its symbols completely, in their efforts to paint this entire conflict as a battle between good and evil. Life, as we know, is far more complicated. Ukraine has far right neo-Nazi movement(s) that still wear Nazi insignia on their uniforms. They are fringe groups and do not represent the views of the majority of the population. Nevertheless, they are armed and ready to fight for Ukraine. Russian propaganda of course likes to continue the Soviet postwar tradition of referring to anyone from western Ukraine as a Nazi.
These photos and videos (and here even local US news)were shared by western media without any kind of explanation.
This Reuters article from 2018 provides a good overview of what is clearly a complicated situation with a complicated history, but as the Ukraine conflict is complicated, we should not ignore such things just because they don’t fit the media’s simplistic narrative. Another piece here from 2019 about Ukraine’s far right problem.
Even here in Austria, where any kind of Nazi propaganda or symbols are banned by law, we still have neo-Nazis, we still have them marching alongside antivaxxers, and we talk about it in the media even if it might paint the entire country in a negative light vis a vis not having dealt with its own history thoroughly enough.
Of course, Ukraine is a large multiethnic, multilingual state with a population of over 40 million. It elected a Russian-speaking Jewish president. All true. But it is also true that these groups still exist and would take part in any armed conflict. I don’t think it’s Kremlin propaganda to talk about it.
Finally, with all this attention on the crisis Russia has created around Ukraine (because, as journalists have pointed out, words matter), let’s not forget about the Balkans. There is a much larger than zero chance that certain parts of the region might blow up when Putin makes a phone call or two, just as things heat up even more in Ukraine (let’s hope not but no one knows yet how this is all going to end). The EU and NATO are barely handling one crisis; Russia knows exactly what two or three might mean for European unity and ability to respond swiftly and intelligently. Meanwhile national governments are still talking about covid and fighting amongst themselves. Good for Putin, bad for the rest of us.
On that happy note, I wish you all a lovely Valentine’s Day! The sun is shining, all the kids went back to school, husband went back to work, and things feel almost normal if just for a few days. I will try to enjoy it.
p.s. I don’t know how many of you are bakers but I am DYING to try and make these today (video here) although I don’t know where to find coloured sugar (may try to color with fresh beetroot which I do have) or red gel food colouring. Aren’t they gorgeous?