Allergy season is in full swing here in Vienna, as you can see from this quick snap out the car window yesterday. This spring feels as false as the hope for peace after announcements emerged out of the Russia-Ukraine talks in Turkey yesterday. This is a good summary in English of the Ukrainian side’s proposal. And this is a good round-up from a Russian perspective.
Markets and certain western observers seemed to take the initial news coming out of Turkey seriously. My feeling all yesterday afternoon was one of bewilderment, because I couldn’t see Russia and Ukraine finding a real, lasting agreement for a real peace, and I still don’t understand how you make peace with a pathological liar who hasn’t yet been decisively defeated on the battleground. By evening, many observers, particularly in Ukraine, but not only, were warning not to trust anything Russia says. Judge Russia on actions, not words. Artillery has been filmed recently moving west from Irkutsk by train. Claims by Russia it was pulling back from Kyiv and Chernihiv look more like a calculated, temporary retreat to regroup.
The goal was always Ukraine. Kyiv was always part of the plan. Except plan A, encircle and take out Zelensky & co didn’t work. So now Russia will try plan B. What could that be? I hesitate to guess, really, but a Russian friend did say to me yesterday, what if they are pulling back troops because they plan on using a chemical weapon? Still need to watch what Belarus does. It is interesting Lukashenko has managed until now to hold off on sending in troops. But Putin has leverage over him, $2 billion annual leverage. So this too many change, and quickly.
Ukraine has held Mykolaiv, and therefore the road to Odesa, which Russia wanted to take in order to quickly reach Transnistria in Moldova. That too hasn’t happened yet. But that doesn’t mean Putin forgot about what he wanted to do there. Yes, Russia needs something tangible to announce for May 9 (Victory Day in Russia referring back to WWII), hence the announcements of Donbas now being the actual goal. But again, this is a Potemkin victory. DNR and LNR have been in Russia’s pocket for years now. Yes, over the past 35 days, Russia has extended its territorial gains in both regions. However, would the Russian public really believe a declaration of “victory” that did nothing more than cause endless destruction and “win back” a few villages in Donestk and Luhansk oblasts? With thousands of dead soldiers? I’m not so sure.
A Russian friend sent me yesterday a text via WhatsApp. The text was this article below. It was sent to her by another grandmother, living in a central Russian mid-sized city. The woman who sent the text is pro-Putin and cheering on Russian “victories”. My friend was naturally horrified anyone could be cheering on Chechen atrocities. I share this because I think it is really important to understand the messaging inside Russia. The last sentence of this parallel universe propaganda piece reads “When I am dying, I will remember how we took Mariupol”.
I don’t see any indication that sanctions have truly bitten Russia. The Russian ruble is holding on thanks to a Potemkin village of new rules that keep it artificially afloat. The Russian public, those who didn’t leave the country, have turned out to be an incredibly apathetic bunch. As if in removing themselves from politics they have also removed themselves from any notion of self-determination or power to change the circumstances of their own lives. Disinformation works to provide a counter narrative and confuse everyone into shrugging their shoulders.
In that context, well, Putin can keep going for some time without any real fear of a threat to his power. Elites, you say? What elites? Financial elites left the country long ago; political elites owe all their power and wealth to Putin’s system. They too will remain loyal. I would be curious to see if the military turns at some point, as Ukraine appears to be exceptionally talented at knocking off Russian generals and high-ranking commanders, but then again, did the military turn against Stalin in the 1930s? Mothers of fallen soldiers? Well, yes, in theory, but the soldiers dying now are from the poorest regions of Russia where most people are just struggling to get by from one month to the next. I doubt many families will risk the payouts from the army to speak up in the name of a war Russia has no place fighting.
I don’t see any reason to believe Putin has had a change of heart. His initial tactics failed, therefore his advisors will have to put new strategies in front of him. I see what is happening now as a pause. I understand Ukraine must stay at the table and try to talk peace because every sane person wants to stop the bloodshed. But Ukraine’s leadership also cannot sign a peace deal that gives away territory Ukraine controlled on Feb 24. And Russia cannot sell anything as a win which does not include territorial gains (imho). Therefore, I don’t see peace until there is a decisive victory on the battlefield. And I still believe this war only truly ends with Putin leaving office. And I don’t think he leaves office alive. Ultimately, I do think this ends with violence within Russia, but we aren’t there yet. Not even close.
Most of Russia is still asleep, despite boys of 19 dying on the fields of Ukraine. Yesterday, I saw a passport photo of one Russian soldier killed in action. 19 years old. In his photos he is a boy of 14, the age Russians receive their first internal passports (ID). His surname translates into “of few years” in English. This boy from a village in Tatarstan will always be of few years. He, and many others, did not make it to his 20th birthday. And for what? For nothing. For absolutely nothing other than the sick fantasies of an old man high on unlimited power. But in order for Putin to sell it as something, he has to achieve more than the territorial gains Russia has at the moment.
A short thread on why peace doesn’t feel realistic right now here:
Meanwhile, as if in a parallel universe, Chechen leader Kadyrov was busy posting fakes on Insta of him supposedly in Mariupol (he is of course not anywhere near).
Last night in Kyiv wasn’t very peaceful:
This about sums up where we are at the moment:
I would also like to recommend more great reporting, again in no particular order.
English translation of Elena Kostyuchenko’s reporting from Mykolaiv:
New York Times interviews survivors who escaped Mariupol and puts their stories in the context of what sieges do to trapped civilians:
Keith Gessen’s beautifully written essay from Lviv interviewing Ukrainians headed west.
Shaun Walker asks the question I have also been thinking about, was Abramovich really poisoned? What exactly is going on and why is this oligarch still in the thick of it? Does Ukraine really trust him? Does he care about peace or only about clearing his own name / removing potential sanctions against him?
Thank you for reading.