Putting the cart before the horse
A few thoughts on the grand conferences taking place in European cities under safe skies.
I often have this image in my head of two worlds existing in parallel yet rarely, if ever, overlapping. There is the real world, where terrible things happen, and responses are carried out in real time by those closest to whatever terrible thing just happened, without time or need to consult an impressively designed power point presentation, because, as was in the case of Kherson, recently, the boat needs to get to that house over there where the family sitting on the roof need to be rescued. Multiply times a million. Millions. Then there is the other world, the world of dark suits, Italian-made loafers and crisp white shirts, of air conditioned hotel ballrooms and corporate auditoriums, where a future is described and debated, although the present is anything but a forgone conclusion.
There is a whole lot of talk right now, everywhere you look, about “rebuilding Ukraine”. My question is how can you talk about rebuilding Ukraine when the war is not over? And the outcome is anything but clear? I understand the human desire to say we are now at point A and we want to get to point C, so let’s draw a map, but it feels like skipping, rather recklessly, over point B. The war. The war has to end for there to be any real talk of “rebuilding” Ukraine. No company responsible to public (or even private) shareholders is going to invest massively in a war zone. That is an un-insurable investment. The Marshall Plan was not announced until 1947. I understand the huge desire to talk about this glorious future for Ukraine and Europe, but at the moment, the future of both Ukraine and Europe is being threatened in real time by the Russian army.
Is anyone saying the quiet part out loud? Well, sort of. This Economist piece does reference the not-so-small problem of the Russian president, and the fact that as long as he is alive and in charge, there cannot really be a real peace agreement, essentially, because you cannot trust a pathological liar (my words, not theirs).
The conferences themselves remind me a bit of the constant flag-waving instead of actual help on the ground. A very important point was brought up yesterday by Timofiy Mylovanov, President of the Kyiv School of Economics.
While the west is busying lecturing war-time Ukraine on “corruption”, there has been barely any spotlight on the corruption which exists inside western institutions (and I would include major NGOs in this category). And when we use the word corruption, we are referring to not just simple, old-fashioned soliciting of bribes, but I am referring to the western kind of institutional corruption — huge budgets at the disposal of a handful of individuals with little of no oversight as to how they are spent, via whom, overpaying for people and equipment, kick-backs, the list goes on and on. And all under the umbrella of “aid”. Although statistics have shown time and again that during the war in Ukraine, the effective on-the-ground aid is being carried out nearly entirely by micro, local, grassroots organizations. It is no wonder that memes have circulated of inactive UN jeeps parked in Ukraine with choice words spray painted onto them.
Read this, for example.
It is not just the conference in London this week, either. Next Monday in Vienna there will be a forum in Vienna, “Building a Modern European Ukraine”. Which is so strange because first, we are jumping from A to C without addressing B. Second, Ukraine is already in Europe and is more modern than much of Europe when it comes to both technology and digitalisation, and its military. So yes, it is a poor country with a large population, but just like many eastern European nations were faster to adopt mobile phones when the Berlin Wall collapsed (they skipped updating landline networks and moved to mobile faster than many western European countries), it is not right for the collective west to lecture Ukraine constantly on what a modern nation looks like, particularly while the EU doesn’t even have its own house in order. It has rogue Hungary doing whatever the heck it likes, Putin’s family using a villa in Austria for ski holidays until very recently, and there is corruption in Europe too, except it isn’t as straightforward as asking for a brown envelope. It is the I’ll scratch your back and you scratch mine kind. It is better disguised, but less available to all players.
That’s the thing about the kind of corruption you experience in (many) post-Soviet countries: it works everywhere and is available to anyone and can be used by the ordinary man to make something work faster. In the collective west, the ordinary man is fucked and corruption is reserved for those with several degrees after their names and a certain amount of corporate and political pedigree. How democratic.
I really don’t think Europe truly understands that Russia will not stop with Ukraine. Another interesting observation is this below — the U.S. intends for Europe to be in the driving seat of Ukraine’s eventual recovery, and that isn’t great news for Ukraine, because it sure feels like things only actually move when the U.S. gets involved directly. It is worrying with a U.S. election next year, if the U.S. turns away from Ukraine more broadly, will Europe be able to see this through on its own? I have my doubts, especially when you pay closer attention to the domestic political dialogues inside EU countries — they are inward focused, domestic issues like inflation and jobs and cost of living, and in this context Ukraine is a problem to be dealt with, the war is a problem, almost as if everyone has already nearly forgotten who invaded who nearly one and a half years ago. With the added sensation that it is all happening miles away, somewhere off there, in our phone and TV screens, not a day’s drive from many European capitals.
As the western Balkans how many strong statements they have heard from EU leaders over the past several years and how much progress they have actually made to towards EU membership for their citizens. The collective west is very good at thoughts and prayers and strong statements. I just hope they are providing the military support and strategic advice to help Ukraine free itself of Russia, and not just enough to make it look like they are doing the right thing. You would think a decisive victory would be in everyone’s interests. You are going to have a destabilised Russia no matter what. Russia is going to go through internal turmoil however Putin goes — whether he dies in office now or later (I personally don’t see him getting pushed aside and left amongst the living). Drawing out the pain, letting the war go on for years, a frozen conflict, letting Russia wait until the old man rots in office until the age of 95, is that really in any country’s best interests, other than China? It feels to me like the choice of ripping off a band-aid quickly vs slowly. Eventually, it has to come off.
Mixed messaging coming out now about the war effort itself. CNN came out with a fairly provocative story yesterday claiming western governments were basically annoyed with Ukraine’s slower-than-expected progress in its counteroffensive, while they are now reporting Ukraine asked for “patience”:
"We must all understand that every life is important to us. We will not lead our people under fire, as the Russian army does, which has not counted and does not count people's lives. We are working according to NATO standards; we are taking care of each of our soldiers, and we are taking steps forward. It will take time, but we intend to advance, and we are advancing with a counteroffensive. We all have to be patient and we will see the results," he said.
You get the feeling the west wants some made-for-TV miniseries, while Ukraine is out there fighting for its life, literally. It seems really unfair for western governments with no boots on the ground to be demanding any kind of timelines from generals who have been bravely fighting an actual war for the past year and a half. But this is why I do not like to comment on the military stuff — I have no expertise and defer to those who do.
The impatience of the collective west is palpable and annoying.
Several NGOs in Austria held a press conference recently to talk about the refugee crisis more broadly and one quote caught my attention:
"Without civil society, the care of the people displaced from Ukraine would have been much less successful."
Yes, civil society, both in Europe and within Ukraine continues to do what it can even while the big budgets are handed to huge NGOs whose personnel and operating budgets eat up so much of what could be directly handed to people in need. And we, the micro folks, keep doing what we can. I hit pause, received 10 more cards, distributed them all within 24 hours, and hit pause again. I was contacted by a very kind journalist who has tech devices to donate after he reviews them for a newspaper. A tablet and a phone when to Ukrainian kids within seconds. Another social worker contacted me about a laptop — no laptop but I sent a grocery card. And on it goes. Step by step. It is only when you stop to take a breath, as I am now, and pause to see the bigger picture, that you end up shaking your head in some kind of disbelief. Two parallel worlds, co-existing yet not really changing paths. I wish we could parachute into each other and vice versa. Every time I hear a “panel discussion” (which is not often, I don’t have the patience for academic posturing while real life is happening somewhere out there, beyond the windows), I wish so much that it could include ordinary people, the kind who write me every day, and tell me what is happening to them. I wish policy makers, on any issue, would actually interact with those they claim to be designing policy for.
I suppose they call them ivory towers for a reason. I never felt it so acutely as I do now. I suppose that is both age and lived experience.
Then I think about people like Ivan in Kyiv, who together with a team of volunteers he organized are delivering groceries to grannies and grandpas in Kyiv and Zaporozhiye. They wake up in the morning, see how much they have raised, go shopping, and make deliveries. Imagine this millions of times over. That is what is keeping Ukraine going right now. People like Ivan.
And in closing, I would also remember this, which just popped into my screen and feels very timely. I really do not understand why they should have to ask for patience in the first place. It seems awfully revealing about the relationship between collective west and Ukraine, and pretty disturbing.
Our men are not out there dying.
Thank you for these powerful words, Tanja, and for what you do every day My friends at Future Crunch in Australia say hope is a verb, not a noun, and that is what you are doing every day - delivering hope, even when it must seem extremely hard. In my experience, it is the grassroots work of ordinary people, aided by their diaspora, that rebuild peace after conflict, as you say here. Keep saying it, please. Blessings to you and all those you work with and help.