Russian roulette
Thoughts on "mobilization" and what comes next. A local update from Austria: it's tense.
Four days ago, Russia announced a partial mobilization which is by no means partial. The initial figure of 300,000 is more likely to rise to over 1 million (Russia’s estimated population is 144 million). And just like that, things changed overnight. Panic about what options draft-eligible men inside Russia have. When the news broke, some took to the streets in major cities, there were nearly 1,500 arrests, and several regional draft offices across Russia were set alight with Molotov cocktails. The government didn’t wait long to react:
Draft notices in Russian must be received by hand, much like a subpoena in the U.S. There were reports from the Russian Far East of men being woken up in the night in villages in Yakutiya and dragged from their beds to serve.
Mobilization in Russia’s poorest regions is leaving no men behind. This will lead to deeper economic collapse in already impoverished areas after years of economic decline. The first tweet says in Russian “Rebublic of Kalmykia, the village of Ukydyuchini, there are 300 houses in total. At first 20 draft notices, now more than 100.” And you can imagine what those houses look like. Wooden, heated with wood or coal oven, wooden outhouse in the corner of the yard. Remember, something like 20% of Russia lives without indoor plumbing.
Putin has now reportedly retreated to his estate in Valdai for a week-long holiday (as one does), and a big speech is planned for September 30, which will follow a special session of the Duma on September 29.
This is of course the next step after the sham referendums held at gunpoint in Donestk, Luhansk, Mariupol, Kherson, Zaporozhye regions. Another video from Mariupol of what looks like anything but a normal democratic election.
The Russian internet is filled with photos and videos of totally drunk new recruits and fistfights and screaming matches breaking out amongst the newly drafted men, many of whom look poor, middle aged, and not in any shape to be a part of a modern army. A modern army, it would seem, is not what Putin is going for. He is after all leading the country into battle with his head in the clouds of the biased history books he has spent the past two decades consuming, thinking he is the next Stalin/Peter the Great/Catherine the Great in one. The draft has been fast and furious.
Young Russian men don’t all want to die for their country, they do not all want to be sent to kill Ukrainians, and yet many simply have no good options if they do not have enough money to flee the country. It’s really only privileged urban populations who can monitor Telegram channels such as this one which provides real time feedback about border crossings (both airport and by car) and how men are being let out of Russia and which questions they are asked by border guards in the process. Many are photoshopping their air tickets to show they were purchased weeks ago, and are flying to classic holiday destinations like Egypt or Turkey. But this assumes of course one has enough money to leave, which of course will only be an upper middle class story. It’s not only about leaving. It’s about being able to sustain yourself financially (and your family) for months at a time without work, assuming you cannot work remotely.
Speaking of work — many Russian companies such as banks and IT firms have already sounded the alarm saying if all the men are drafted they risk having critical infrastructure simply fall apart. The Kremlin responded with an oops we hear you.
I wrote this here about the view from Moscow. Another Telegram channel popped up, this one reporting where police are randomly stopping young men in Moscow and handing out draft papers. They also provide info about who is draft eligible.
There is an overwhelming sense of panic. Yes, Russian men had seven months to figure out that their country is at war with Ukraine and if one knows the history of Russia and the history of Putin it wasn’t a stretch to imagine a draft. Having said that, when you sit in the comfort of your apartment and go to work and try to ignore the news (because, many did exactly that), it is a shock when you wake up one morning and learn your whole life could be changed in an instant.
So I see in my Facebook feed many many posts from my Russian friends already living abroad and in Europe trying to give advice, trying to help others leave (“what you need to know about moving to Montenegro or Turkey 101”), but this will be like the 1%, the 5% who have options, and enough money to get on a plane. Provided the planes are still flying. I said this last week and I still say it: a full border closure, at least for men, would not surprise me. I saw some rumor (there are millions) yesterday in Russian about September 28 as being the day they might stop letting men out, which would align with the September 29 Duma session and Putin’s speech on Sept 30.
There has been much debate online about whether EU should accept Russian deserters. I personally think the announcements by some EU states not to accept Russian tourists after the mobilization news is wrong. It goes against everything the EU claims to stand for. Those men will not make any change at home. Everyone who knows anything about the history of Russia (especially as the inheritor of the Soviet state) knows how practically impossible change is on an individual level. Every Russian man who refuses to fight is one less solider Russia can send to kill Ukrainians. Forcing Russians to stay in Russia will not help end the war any sooner. The haven’t revolted in decades, why would they do so now? Russia will imprison the deserters just like it imprisoned Navalny. Russian history has no shortage of death by imprisonment at the hands of the state.
Personally, I think this is the wrong approach and plays right into the Kremlin argument that the west is fundamentally anti-Russian in nature. The same people cheering these moves by some EU countries would have no problem with U.S. draft-age men fleeing into Canada during the Vietnam war, because they didn’t want to kill people in a far away country for nothing. The pro-war Russians will not flee to the west anyway, why would they? The men who want to leave have no desire to be a part of Putin’s killing machine, and yes, you can fault them for not doing more to stop Russia’s brutal and senseless war on the Ukrainian people, but it seems strange to single these men out for punishment when they are the ones saying we don’t want to take up arms.
So let’s see what this week brings. One thing is clear: it is all moving very quickly.
Just saw these tweets as I was writing. The poorer the region of Russia, the more men they will simply grab, just like they have done in DNR & LNR:
I have been overwhelmed this week by a feeling of deep sadness. It feels like you are watching a bad movie unfold in real time and you already know exactly how it ends.
I think most Russians trying to leave will not end up in the EU, simply because life is expensive here, housing is already very tight, and they won’t be allowed to work on tourist visas, provided they have one.
Meanwhile, the emotional temperature is also rising amongst the Ukrainians I am trying to help (with all of your help) in Austria. My group turned into a big fight last night, a huge discussion about whether or not they should all switch to speaking Ukrainian (or not), arguments between those from predominantly Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine and those who associate the Russian language with Russia’s war of aggression and therefore expect us all to switch to Ukrainian. In short, I woke up this morning, warned I would delete any further arguments, and had to block one woman who insisted on continuing to yell in all caps. It’s tense.
I continue to deliver supermarket gift cards (thank you that this is still possible). Handed out 3 more in person yesterday, including to a mom and daughter living in that dorm in Vienna’s 11th district where they cannot register. But mom has cancer and is being seen at AKH. So it’s like she exists, but not really. I tell them I don’t know what will happen but don’t hold your collective breath waiting for the Austrian government to do something. Be proactive. Look for options. I remind them there are hospitals in other parts of the country too. Not everyone has to be in Vienna.
Mario and his team sent out an incredible more than €7,000 in supermarket gift cards yesterday to Ukrainians in Austria. I can’t wait until all the happy shopping cart photos start arriving early next week! Thank you all for continuing to support us. We can only continue as long as we have funding. To help us, please donate here or here. The waiting list is still unfortunately very long. Some Ukrainians have already complained to me and I have to set the record straight — we are not the state nor a real NGO with actual funding we are literally two people and a bunch of generous individuals from around the world and across Austria who donate their own money they already paid taxes on.
I got a message yesterday from an Oksana in Lower Austria. I didn’t know what to do with it.
It made me really frustrated because I thought this cannot ALL be our problem. So I pushed back a bit and said please ask local people for help. And the Ukrainian woman answers the locals do not help and they are in a village and there are no resources and she starts to send me sizes of jackets and shoes and I was like stop: I am not Amazon. I cannot do this. We can maybe order some diapers and formula but I cannot be outfitting an entire family. We are not offering that kind of help. You must find a place with donated clothes and shoes. I can only send you a grocery card now.
I felt awful but at the same time I was like this is madness. This should be a request for a local church or the mayor’s office or whoever is in charge of the Ukrainians now a part of their community. Instead, they write me because they have my phone number. And I in turn get pretty stressed out because I have to disappoint them and say I cannot help in this case. I don’t have winter jackets or shoes for all of you and I don’t know where to get them.
And yes, it is almost the end of September and nothing has been announced yet regarding the cost of public transportation in Austria for Ukrainian refugees after September 30. Everyone is asking a thousand times a day and we have no answers.
The good news is the very first Ukrainian I know personally received her Klimabonus. She got a yellow slip at her Vienna address (she has been here since March 9), went to the post office, collected her €500. She was thrilled, obviously. Now a million others (I exaggerate) are hoping their little yellow slips will come to. We explain over and over you don’t need to do anything; you must just wait and hope it comes automatically.
Turning back to Ukraine, this article is a reality check. My biggest fear which I’m willing to put on paper is this war drags on much, much longer.
Thank you for reading and for your understanding there are often days in a row recently when I simply don’t find the time to write. I try to make up for it when I do find time, like today.
When you write, you write (and I know that you find it helpful to get things out of your head and onto "paper"). But when you don't write... don't beat yourself up, your readers will wait - you don't owe us anything. Thank you for all that you do and share.
I read this very slowly and ... it made me think. Life/politics always is very complicated, complex. Thank you for making me rethinking again and again. :-)