I started writing this on Friday afternoon, and pulled out this photo from my camera roll. I wrote down a list of topics, and then walked away from my laptop, feeling lazy, promising to myself to write on the weekend.
It was a hot Sunday this past August. We had spent the day in Jerusalem, arriving back in time to enjoy the sun setting over the ocean in Tel Aviv so warm it felt like swimming in a bathtub with waves, with little fish occasionally nibbling at your ankles. We had shared the train to Jerusalem that Sunday morning with dozens of Israeli soldiers, both men and women. I had been taken aback by so many uniforms, and so many guns. Our tour guide told us this was part of mandatory military service, a special day in Jerusalem, a history lesson of sorts. He had also shown us a text message he received as a former soldier, reminding him he could carry a weapon should he wish. This was the government’s way of making sure the civilian population was prepared to handle any potential terrorist situations, he explained. At the time I made a comment about even countries like Serbia taking back guns from the population, while here was Israel, encouraging more of its citizens to carry guns.
Today, with hindsight, I better understand why. I will not write further about today’s events because I have no expertise nor educated opinion to share. I can only say, as an ordinary person reading the news, that it has becoming increasingly obvious to both autocrats and terrorists that the world is now left without a policeman. The fear that once held such actors back, or at least caused them to think twice, is gone. If it is true what they write that Hamas is funded by Iran, and we know Russia has been funnelling plenty of money into Iranian drones, then it is easy to draw a line back to the axis of autocrats who have no respect for human life. The retaliation will be on those who carried out the heinous crimes we have seen across our phone screens today, but I think the real question is who empowered them to act now, and why.
I’ve been mulling over several really big questions this week, even before this morning’s horrific news from Israel. It feels very much like a turning point in many regards: in western politics, in Russia’s war against Ukraine, within the EU, regarding conditions for Ukrainians trying to build new lives here in Europe and/or return home. This fall feels like a reality check across so many fronts, with so many of the previously-assumed norms or rules of the game being questioned or brazenly broken.
First, big picture. Big picture, a lot of Ukraine aid is being called into question. A lot of people are starting to ask the very uncomfortable question of can Ukraine actually win, and if it cannot, then what is to be done now. Scholz gave this absolute non-excuse excuse for not delivering Taurus missiles to Ukraine. This messaging from Germany sounds so much like the the neutrality many in Austrian cling to like a safety blanket of false promises. Ukraine may struggle to defeat Russia, but it will struggle even more without the weapons it needs for a fair fight. Holding back such weapons will only speed up Russia’s victory, and a victorious Russia will not stop with Ukraine, but there are clearly European leaders who truly believe it would. Who truly believe they could then live in peace with Russia as a neighbour instead of Ukraine.
This is a very interesting, informative discussion from the U.S. about how Ukraine aid is technically allocated and what hiccups could come down the road: Security Assistance to Ukraine Under Threat. I do not understand all the nuances, but what I took away from it is even in America, even in the country you think is ready to write blank checks to Ukraine (with the notable and increasingly vocal exceptions of the far right and the far left), there are procedures, and they have to be either followed or worked around. Biden making a speech and promising weapons and ammunition does not make them appear instantaneously.
The FT wrote this week about the election in Slovakia: How Slovak Voters Turned Against Ukraine “Threat”. They interviewed voters in the east of the country who voted for a pro-Russia candidate. They asked them why. Their response was so telling. The cars. The expensive SUVs with bulletproof, super-tinted windows, the variations on luxury German automobiles many in European capitals have never seen. This too will be a huge problem in the Austrian elections next year. Those cars driving around give (the not incorrect) impression of a country in which massive amounts of wealth could be concentrated in the hands of a few. I keep thinking about those cars and how they will influence voting patterns in European democracies as they elect far right populists likely to take very anti-democratic turns once they get into office.
The news from Ukraine this week has been horrific. Deadly attacks on Kherson, Kharkiv city center, and 51 people killed attending a wake for a fallen solider in a small village west of Kupiansk.
If casual conversations with Ukrainians and others this summer all came to the conclusion that the war would be long, but the rest was murky, the mood now is palpably questioning the things you aren’t supposed to say out loud. I too have hesitated to write such thoughts, because what is the point. The question now is not the validity of Ukraine’s cause, but rather, what are its chances and how does it achieve its goals while protecting the lives of its citizens. At some point the nation will have to have that conversation about how many lives lost is too many. The cost of every square meter won back.
Please read all of this. It is such an important call to look rationally at the situation. Ukraine faces a long and difficult road ahead, and at some point the country’s population will grow louder in demanding to have those incredibly difficult conversations with their elected leadership. Leadership which is also technically due for re-election next year. Leadership which has been next to flawless in executing its role during this war, but in which you start to see mistakes. The population in Ukraine are upset about wartime corruption. They are upset about men being pulled off the streets and sent to the front with not nearly enough military training. They are upset about the state of the economy.
As for those in occupied territories, it depends how long they have been occupied. If you speak with a pensioner in Donetsk, they have likely already received a Russian passport, in order to receive a Russian pension (significantly higher than Ukraine’s pension). Local cars are now being issued Russian license plates affiliating Donetsk with Rostov region. All real estate ownership documents are being re-classified under the Russian system. You can only imagine what a bonanza this is for those who uncover which property owners abandoned their assets for good. A new road is being built to Mariupol. For those who chose to stay, in many cases because they had nowhere else to go and it is where they have lived their entire lives, they have now come to turns with living in Russia. The war has been fought around them since 2014, and yet, they are still there.
I overheard a conversation this week. A family originally from Donetsk now in Europe. Property left behind both in Crimea and a dacha built in Russia. So those are both gone. They managed to go back before 2022 and sell the apartment. You had to go back via Russia. The person sharing the story joked, “too bad my parents didn’t realise the future was in Europe earlier” in reference to the property now lost.
Ukrainians originally from territories now occupied by Russia, now in Europe, have to come to terms with the fact that if they want to see their loved ones, and their loved ones have only Russian passports, this means now a trip to Russia. I think for most people it is hard to imagine your parent dies and you cannot go home and bury them. It is hard to imagine never being able to return to your hometown and attend a high school reunion. But that is the reality for so many. Someone said to me recently, when I get a new phone, I’ll make a new iCloud, just start over, you know, from scratch. That is the sentiment. You cannot look back. You have to live in the present.
Those Ukrainians in Europe who look forwards rather than backwards are having an easier time of it. We have very little real information from those Ukrainian territories now occupied by Russia. We have little reporting from the actual front lines because even on the Ukrainian side, the flow of information is controlled. The country is at war, and that is certainly their right to control media activity, but I think it is important to remember we do have a lack of real information about what the mood truly is on the ground in those areas Russia took over by force.
A few months ago, I heard a story about a couple waiting the war out in a large-ish Ukrainian city, hoping to eventually return to their mid-sized hometown which found itself on the front lines. The fighting has now moved on, but half the town’s homes were destroyed in the process. Even if you home is still standing, it was explained to me, you aren’t going to go back and build a life from the ruins. I think about all those towns of ruins, what will become of them. I fully understand the psychology of wanting a fresh start somewhere where you do not pass rubble as you walk down the road to the shop. If the shop is even open. If the people do not return, there will not be any shop to walk to.
Back here in Europe, more precisely, in tiny little Austria, many Ukrainians in my Telegram group have become professionals at the art of (and it is an art, or rather a sport?) negotiating the labyrinth that is Austria’s government bureaucracy in which money sometimes falls from the sky, but not to everyone. Only if you are in the lucky half. Seemingly without rhyme or reason. You can only imagine how this drives everyone bonkers in the process.
I have always personally despised the idea of a nanny state. I have always instinctively believed you should give people the opportunity to make a fair living and not burden them with too high taxes and let the rest fall into place. I may sound like a libertarian. I am not. I truly want those in need to receive cash aid. But too often more money is spent operating these so-called aid programs than actually reaches those in need. And I don’t like what it does to the human psyche. I do not like to see people chasing after money from the sky. It really bothers me. It seems so counter-intuitive.
The Austrian government this past July passed legislation approving an additional €60 per child payment for low-income families. They only started to pay it out at the end of last week. You cannot imagine the email writing and back and forth between Ukrainian moms who did not receive the money (but their friends did! and they have the same financial situations!) and the authorities being paid actual real money to allocate such payments and answer emails. All over €60. You cannot make it up. It is, in short, a mess, with each of the nine states doing its own thing and moms trying to figure out if they do or don’t qualify. At first they were told Ukrainians would not qualify, then some received the money, much to everyone’s surprise. It appears the criteria were 2022 recipient of child benefit for at least seven months plus you received a tax rebate for 2022 as a single parent. Yes, some Ukrainians received tax rebates even though they did not work. I know, I do not understand it either.
The problem with the nanny state is managing it becomes a full-time job and yet it only pays like a very, very, very part-time job. These moms would be much better served figuring out how to earn those €60 in a day with a side-hustle, as legally they are punished when they earn more. The incentives are all wrong.
I was told this week of a grandmother, mother and child who live in Germany, originally from Ukraine. They receive €1500 per month from the state, plus housing. Which is great, in the short term. In the long-term, this is a not great, because they have no incentive to change. No incentive to get a job. No incentive to build a new life. As the story teller told me, one and a half years, and what do you have to show for it?
Those who are learning German, took jobs, got off of benefits, they have the feeling of real tangible progress. But it is not so easy for everyone, especially for the elderly or sick or mothers of small children. But I personally see the mentality which takes over when you are fully dependent on the state and the authorities for your financial well-being, and it is disturbing in the long-run. Money may occasionally fall from the sky, but in the long-term, it is detrimental.
A tireless volunteer wrote me this week. She has had enough. She has been answering hundreds of requests about “how much can I earn without losing my state housing and/or my benefits” because the said state refuses (yes, actually) to publish those rules publicly so that all Ukrainians could make an informed decision when they take on paid work. I had to remind her: you can say no. We are volunteers. We do not have to be doing this. We are not responsible that the state does not make the rules clear. We have tried to fill in gaps, but ultimately we are no replacement for a functional system. We cannot be.
A shame they don’t just time limit benefits for those who can work and stop punishing financially/housing those who have already sought legal work. Yes, it is complicated, but throwing €60 from the sky for cheap newspaper headlines isn’t a solution.
I don’t know where this is all going. I wish I saw grounds for optimism. At the moment, I do not.
I only can say on an individual level, those most happy are those who are living in the present and facing it head on, rather than those holding onto a past which has slipped away, or a future which may realistically never be. One mom wrote today, “I cannot take those jobs they are offering me, I have a university degree!” and I thought, oh no, what you mean to say is I don’t want to take those jobs, because you have figured out how to pinch every penny of the meagre aid you receive from the state, rather than go out and earn some, because you think you do not have to do manual labor which many are doing and taking pride in providing for their families. This is learned helplessness. It worries me. It is not prevalent, such comments are a very small minority, but when I hear it, I do worry. Because I know back home in Ukraine money did not fall from the sky. And it will not fall here forever, either.
But you are not at home. You were uprooted. Your whole world changed overnight. It can happen to any of us, at any moment. I think about that a lot.
I think about what Israel woke up to this morning, also, without warning.