Sunday not always funday
So much has happened this weekend, both in the news and in waiting for Omicron. A summary of what happened, what to read, what to watch.
Took this shot this morning on a very rainy and unpleasant walk through Schloss Schönbrunn. We had just dropped off my youngest to see her German tutor, FFP2-masked and freshly negative PCR tested, and had just learned three of her classmates have Omicron (and counting, I assume). The first positive test was unvaccinated, the next two are fully vaccinated, as much as kids of that age can be right now (two shots). The class has been ordered into “Distance Learning” until Thursday, but all their books and folders are locked in the classroom, along with their Fassmann laptops. It’s a never-ending dark comedy. I accepted already back in December that Omicron will be unavoidable, so I am at peace with whatever comes next.
Russia is now experiencing a full-blown Omicron wave, which has surprised me a bit because it’s pretty hard to find anyone in Russia who hasn’t had covid yet. Which made me think when Putin said at his recent annual Q&A with journalists that everyone was going to build immunity whether through vaccination (recommended) or infection (the alternative you should avoid), he didn’t mention the part about everyone can get covid multiples times, or so it seems. And we don’t know yet how long immunity post-Omicron infection will last. What if it’s only three or four months and the cycle repeats itself, indefinitely? Ugh.
This got me thinking about the whole “will Russian invade Ukraine any minute now or not” mess. I call it a mess because it’s really unbearable at this point, the thousand and one different hot takes from people who probably don’t speak any Russian nor Ukrainian and until one month ago didn’t pay attention to that area of the world. But I digress. What if Omicron holds Putin and his army back? Seriously. It’s a real possibility. And if we are going to use frozen mud as an actual argument, we could also cite highly infections virus spreading that bypasses existing vaccines.
So what happened this weekend? First, a German navy admiral was caught on video during an official visit to India saying Putin deserved to be treated with more respect and Crimea was already long gone. A fury of shock and disgust followed in the German media, and Germany’s naval chief handed in his resignation on Saturday evening.
But that wasn’t the only German drama this weekend. Germany is also apparently trying to block weapons shipments to Ukraine from the Baltic countries. It is, however, sending field hospitals to Ukraine. So no to guns but yes to medical aid. It is a very hard position for the world to comprehend when you look at the map and think Germany must have an interest in sending Russia a message that you can’t just invade whoever you feel like whenever you feel so inspired.
However, we mustn’t forget about Germany’s past and general aversion to military anything and its dependence on Russian gas. Things simply look different from Berlin compared to Washington DC. And most importantly, German politics at the moment seem to be in some kind of free fall, with rival factions sounding each other out and politicians trying as they go to figure out what a post-Merkel German order looks like. It doesn’t seem like anyone knows the answer to that question yet.
Bavaria’s powerful conservative governor Söder gave an interview arguing we must maintain dialogue with Russia, which caused frustration but probably will be read with some sympathy within conservative German circles.
Germany, too, has a Russia problem, in the same way Austria has a Russia problem. Austria doesn’t like to acknowledge its problem, and I suspect the situation may be similar in Germany, albeit with far more important consequences, as the U.S. and UK would love to show a united front in support of Ukraine’s territorial integrity vis a vis Mr Putin and his potential war games and actual posturing, but that simply is not where things stand at the moment.
The Germans will have to figure out for themselves what they want to do about Russia and Ukraine before there can be any certainty of how things will play out within EU and NATO.
The good news is talks will continue this week on Tatiana Day, January 25, in Paris, under the Normandy format on the topic of eastern Ukraine (occupied Donbas territories). France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine will all be on the table.
The bad news is it seems the UK is also playing the disinformation game. The British government put out a statement claiming it had intercepted Russian plans to install a pro-Russian government in Ukraine should the Russians invade. People familiar with Ukrainian politics rolled their eyes and questioned the names on the list. This made me wonder if this wasn’t the U.S./UK alliance playing Russia at its own game, throwing things out there that don’t have legs to stand on just to make the other side look bad. Russia put out a statement saying it is disinformation, and I have to say, this time, I think I agree with Moscow. It is all noise but noise that a lot of people spin themselves in circles discussing. Perhaps that’s the intention.
One final thought. Question your sources. Question who is spreading information and for what purpose. There is a lot of noise at the moment. There are many people with fancy academic degrees who are paid a lot of money to spread certain messaging online. It isn’t always easy to differentiate who is well intentioned and who is playing a propaganda game.
A must watch! I don’t want to spoil it for you, but the timing couldn’t be more relevant. Make time for this one. It’s almost half in English and half in German and very well done.
After watching the film, I then saw this on my Twitter feed:
For some weekend reading, I would really recommend this Peter Pomerantsev essay, What the West Will Never Understand About Putin’s Ukraine Obsession. I read carefully, nodding in agreement with nearly every word. Worth taking the time to read in full.
If you read Russian, this is a very moving anonymous first person essay about what it is like now to travel from Kyiv back to your former home city of Donetsk, and what life is like these days in Donetsk, the capital of the self-proclaimed DNR, in eastern Ukraine. If the BBC does not translate this, I will try to find time to translate it myself (have not managed yet!).
Moving away from Russia, this is a very important report on the Bosnian covid crisis that no one is reporting on which is unfolding right now in Bosnia.
I also listened to a really interesting podcast about China’s approach to covid. Basically, they accomplished the amazing feat of vaccinating 80% of their 1.4 billion population with Chinese-made vaccines, but they don’t have enough doses yet to offer people a third shot (booster), so they are sticking, for now at least, and especially with the Olympics around the corner, with their zero-covid policy. Time will tell if it works. Initial signs seem to indicate it’s much harder if not downright impossible with Omicron. Personally, I think this will lead to huge supply chain issues in 2022, and therefore inflation may become an even bigger global economic challenge as the year progresses.
To end on a light note, one of my favourite vloggers, a young American who has visited every single country on Earth, is now spending three weeks travelling around Russia. He is now in Yakutsk in -41C. You can follow his adventures on TikTok or his Instagram Stories.
Enjoy what’s left of your weekends, and thanks for reading!
“And we don’t know yet how long immunity post-Omicron infection will last. What if it’s only three or four months and the cycle repeats itself, indefinitely? Ugh.”
Just like a cold. We are slipping into a police state because of a cold.
Insanity.