TGIF
Transition of power from father to son in Turkmenistan, more fighting in eastern Ukraine, what Russia really wants, new podcast on Maulwurfakt aka dodgy Austrian things.
Turkemenistan, like North Korea, is one of those hermit countries we have all heard about, never been to, and watch with a strange voyeurism, a mixture of curiosity and horror. You probably remember the crazy vides of its fearless leader, President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, with his dogs or riding a bicycle (well, actually, walking a bike) with 500 of his closest pals all in matching track suits.
I started thinking about Turkmenistan earlier this year when I listened to this podcast (don’t let the cheesy name be a turn off — its actually really well done) about the first dictator of Turkmenistan, “Turkmenbashy” Niyazov, after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Niyazov’s story TL:DR — mother and siblings die in an earthquake after WWII, raised in a Soviet orphanage, move through Soviet system, take power in 90s transition, use Turkmenistan lore to make himself a dictator, send his ethnic Jewish Russian wife and half-Russian kids to Moscow so they are never seen, dies in 2006.
After Niyazov’s death, Berdymukhamedov takes over, and a cult of personality continues. The Central Asian nation is more isolated today than ever. For two years since the pandemic started, its citizens have not been able to leave the country, not even for short trips to Uzbekistan which used to be possible. Food inflation is high, covid officially doesn’t exist but unofficially is of course there, birth rates are falling, and China buys nearly all the country’s most important export: natural gas. There is no freedom of the press or freedom of anything. It is in this context that Berdymukhamedov wants to hand power over to his son, Serdar, next month.
Why? Father is rumoured to be quite ill, having suffered from diabetes for years (they say he even had one of his toes amputated), and as son, educated in the west but as yet an unproven leader, father wants to hover the background during a transition phase. “A horse-obsessed personality cult becomes a dynasty”:
If you understand Russia, this interview with Ruslan Myatiev of Turkmen.news (reporting from abroad as there is no free press within Turkmenistan), is extremely insightful.
Moving closer to home, fighting intensified yesterday in eastern Ukraine. A shell fired from the pro-Russian separatist side hit the wall of a kindergarten on the Ukrainian side. It was pure luck that the children were in the neighbouring room having breakfast at the time. The more violence escalates, the more the likelihood of a pretext being created for a broader Russian invasion.
Ukrainian president Zelensky toured the front lines yesterday, with a Bild journalist in tow:
Experts are still spilt: some fully expect a war to break out, only a matter of time, while others think this is all part of a long game Russia is prepared to play using cyber attacks and other non-military tactics to keep the west on its toes and negotiating. I really don’t know, as I say every day, but if I was a betting woman (which I am not), at the moment I am leaning towards them doing something militarily, simply because they can and Putin needs something for his domestic public to focus on (he and Biden actually share that problem in common). February 23 is Defender of the Fatherland Day, or men’s day in Russia, so keep your eye on that date in addition to February 20, the end of the Olympics, Russia-Belarus military exercises, and Munich conference, which Russia will not be attending.
If you read German, both of these pieces do a good job of asking the question, beyond Ukraine, what else does Putin want?
I do think there are arguments to be made that Putin’s appetite would stretch as far as the west will let him. He spent the last twenty years amassing wealth. The west thought economic ties would prevent war. Europe in particular massively miscalculated on this. And now Putin’s position vis a vis the west, militarily at least, because of his willingness to use it, is perhaps stronger than it’s ever been.
Whatever the west promises Putin (rumor is Scholz is prepared to say Ukraine will never join NATO), it won’t be enough. He will always want more.
Scholz, therefore, in my mind, annoyed he has to deal with this at all and preferring to go back to 2022 mainstream German topics like climate change, covid and inflation, would probably happily put any piece of paper in front of Putin just to make the problem disappear. But it won’t.
This is an excellent summary of where we are today in the Russia-Ukraine situation, with many very astute observations:
Putin and Lukashenko will meet, again, today.
So, where does Austria fit in all of this? Listening to chancellor Nehammer on the radio from Brussels this morning, on the one hand he repeated news that is questionable and two weeks old, on the other hand he did say the Austrian government’s respective ministries are making plans for various scenarios should the conflict in Ukraine escalate. Nehammer is actually one of the few senior politicians in Austria who does not give the impression of having been bought by the Russians. Yes, I really mean that, particularly with respect to all the others that have spent decades cosying up to Kremlin-adjacent money.
Finally, a podcast recommendation, this time in German. From Die Presse on the Maulwurfakt, all the drama behind the former BVT guys now being investigated for supposedly having helped Jan Marsalek of Wirecard flee the country. In eight parts, the first episode is available here:
New reports have now emerged that the accused stayed in touch with him for weeks after he fled.
Interesting this all came out this week after I wrote a few days about about the lawyer who was defending Martin W. in Feb 2021 and by July 2021 had been nominated to the ÖBAG supervisory board. Maybe I’m alone, but I find that career trajectory really weird.
Wish you all a calm Friday as you ride it out into the weekend! Thanks for reading, and if you like, send me feedback. Let me know what you like and don’t like, what topics you would like to hear more and less about. It would be really helpful! Thanks!