Thank you
Thank you for making it possible to keep helping Ukrainian refugees in Austria. A few philosophical thoughts on recent events and the practice of reading Kremlin (and Elon Musk's) tea leaves.
Thank you all for your generous response to my last post. I have been able distribute several €50 Hofer cards every day this week as a result. It makes a huge difference. And I receive colourful, hopeful photos like this which popped into my inbox yesterday. I continue to receive messages everyday, many from Ukrainians who arrived recently.
“Hi, my acquaintance told me about you. She said you are giving out supermarket vouchers. I arrived from Kremenchuk about a month ago, I would be really grateful for the help. Please tell me what I should do to apply.”
I am happy to keep doing this work as long as there is funding for it. This morning, I was buying 15 cards at Hofer, and the cashier asked me what they were for. When I told her, she reacted so nicely, told me what a great idea it is, and even came over and asked if I needed help as I was stuffing my stamped envelopes in the area of the shop where customers usually pack up their groceries after they have paid. Ordinary people understand in a second what we are trying to do and the value of direct aid.
Same with requests like this one yesterday for winter clothing. It will get cold soon, and many refugees, especially those who arrived in summer, are going to need our help. Unfortunately, there is still not enough second hand clothing to meet demand, and accessing it is tricky, particularly for those living in rural locations. Children grow. Many will not fit in their clothes from last winter.
This morning in my group chat (now 1,700 Ukrainians all over Austria), they were giving each other advice how to line up at 5am at Gasometer (yes, really) for a €10 payment made once per month and possibly a bag of free groceries. Of course, this is not everyone, but the fact that many Ukrainians are prepared to stand in line for hours just to receive €10 and some donated food tells you a lot about the current situation for many refugees. Those who had money in Ukraine may be doing just fine here. They are also perhaps more likely to have already found employment. Those who were living near poverty in Ukraine are not feeling any more comfortable in Austria, particularly as our prices are simply much higher, and there is no more grandmother’s vegetable garden to supplement from.
Austria’s government seems to be working on raising the limit on how much a Ukrainian can legally earn while still being in the “Grundversorgung” system (state subsidised housing and social payments). But this hasn’t been passed into law yet, and therefore has not yet taken effect. Everything here takes so much time. I bought a public transport ticket for a Ukrainian for October that was then not necessary after free travel was extended. I emailed a week ago asking for a refund. Still no response. And so on. At every step of the way, refugees are expected to pre-fund an existence in Europe. Which is crazy, if you stop and think about it.
If less than 10,000 Ukrainians are employed, and 80,000 are living in Austria, that is all you need to know about how economic “integration” is going.
The infamous dorm in Vienna’s 11th district is supposed to be handing out Meldezettel (registration) this week, only there is again a problem. First, they are not giving out everyone registration, but rather only to those who have resided there for two months or more. What will happen to the others? Who knows. Second, at the same time as they are handing out registration, they are asking residents to sign a second form, which is essentially a de-registration form without a date. Meaning, as one resident said to me, “they can kick us out at any time.” I had to gently remind her that is already the situation now, and with a registration, she will at least have a track record. These residents haven’t received a penny from the Austrian state, no cash in hand. They have a roof over their heads and are “fed” three times a day, but that’t it. I asked a resident today, did you receive any pocket money yet? No. Still none.
So it feels a bit like cautious, baby steps forward, for most if not everyone. But we do not know how long everything will take, and at the same time, if you look at the news from Ukraine, it is clear the odds are very high there will be more waves of refugees this winter, especially if power and water cuts in Ukraine become an ongoing problem. Ukraine’s ambassador to Austria this morning made a plea online for help with generators and water purifiers. This is the first such appeal I remember seeing, and shows just how seriously Ukraine’s government is taking preparations for what might be a very challenging winter.
You’ve seen the photos and the news of the airstrikes across Ukraine on Monday and to a lesser extent yesterday. Right in the heart of Kyiv. Right in the park I had a coffee in while I was visiting in early February. Right across from university buildings. Right across from the art museum that houses great works of art by Ukrainian and Russian painters alike. You don’t look for logic where there is none. There is only cruelty and sadism. Then you look at Ukraine’s response — cleaning up in lightening speed, and it becomes entirely clear how this all ends. Not the path to get there, that no one can predict, but the end. The end we know already.
Vladimir called me yesterday. He served in the Soviet army. He promised to visit me with his wife Galina on their way home. To a free and Ukraine at peace.
Which brings me to a subject I have been trying to get my thoughts together on for days. The business of analysing what Putin said or did or thinks, and same for his billionaire puppet, Elon Musk.
It is irrelevant. Both of them, both of their opinions, are irrelevant to our decision-making processes and the steps the west must take.
This war only ends when Putin and his murderers for hire are gone. Like gone gone.
There can be no negotiations with them. There can be no lasting peace with them. They are not looking for “off ramps”.
Putin has since February 24 destroyed everything that he built over the two decades leading up to that. His historical reputation is already in tatters. He has nothing to lose. So the sooner the world can bring him to his knees (and then some), the better. At the moment, that means helping Ukraine defend herself with whatever possible means.
And no, Putin is not Russia, but I am hearing whispers about a post-Putin Russia I never heard before, from people who did very well for themselves under two decades of Putin’s rule, and are now seeing it all go up in flames. Putin stole Russia’s future. A new one will have to be built without him.
And yes, the little semi-autonomous princes like Prigozhin and Kadyrov are a really big problem. Even if the king falls, they too must meet their fate. And yes, it is hard to imagine a scenario for a peaceful transition of power.
I continue to believe this only all ends when Russia itself breaks into violence and there is finally a reckoning with everything that happened since 2000. Russia has to deal with its own post-Soviet history in order to be reborn a modern country. Otherwise, it gets kicked out of Ukraine and lives in permanent exile like Iran. I don’t see that being sustainable for decades. I see Russia imploding from within first.
Putin has stolen Russian children’s futures from them. Parents see it. Many had to flee. Many are trying to start from zero all the way from Kazakhstan to Spain, Morocco to Georgia. No one wants to live in exile. No one wants to have their futures stripped from them by one madman and his genocidal exploits. Do not make the mistake of interpreting the sick propaganda aired on Russian TV as Russian popular opinion. Sure, some have drunk the Kool-Aid, but the buzz will wear off very, very fast as their sons are drafted and come back maimed or dead.
Moscow was supposed to be untouchable. I am seeing posts in Moscow mommy groups about lawyers who can help you try to wiggle your son or husband out of the draft. There are endless posts about visas and real estate abroad. A friend is selling a Moscow apartment. I ask, how is it going? It’s not going. Half the city is for sale. Sarcasm, but not really.
Putin’s government has no future. It has stolen Russians’ futures from them. At some point, ordinary Russians will demand them back. Moscow’s best and brightest brains have all left. Those left are scrambling to create some kind of existence while ignoring all the news, all the negativity around them. My former diet guru pitches Chinese medicine. An art promoter offers a new Telegram channel. But it’s all just sad, sad noise. They have kids. They know their kids will not be a part of the western world if this continues. They know what they are missing out on. They are just cowards. For now, they are cowards, but one day, there will be strength in numbers. And it is not just Putin. The whole rotten apparatus, the ex-Soviet thugs, those who see violence as a way of life, they have to go. And yes, the Chechen question, like a bad marriage never dealt with, will have to be addressed with something more than a limitless credit card, which was basically Putin’s solution for Kadyrov and now even that doesn’t lead to control nor obedience.
I cannot predict any of what might happen. I do not like the rhetoric on both sides — both the west and in Russia — which serves to normalise the threat of a nuclear strike. I find it deeply disturbing. Once you talk about something long enough, it almost becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Belarus is gone. As close to being annexed as a nation can without changing its flag. To call it still an independent actor is to give Lukashenko way too much credit. Austrian companies still operate there. One might ask what the hell are their shareholders and boards thinking.
“In the end, this brazen behaviour will only accelerate Putin’s own demise.”
I wrote that on February 22 and I still believe it. I don’t need anyone to explain his logic to me. There is no logic when you are a madman obsessed. When you have dug a hole you cannot dig your way out of. And sure, every time there is a power vacuum, sinister people smell blood, and there are for sure those, like the new general (who I will not refer to by his ridiculous nickname which makes him sound like some kind of Hollywood thriller villain), who will be happy to partake in the senseless killing as long as they get away with it.
It is our collective job, in the civilised western world, as we like to think of ourselves, to make sure Putin’s Russia does not get away with it. The sooner we start calling it just Russia, the better. Because the country has seen dark days before and it is not destined for eternal darkness. But sometimes things have to get much worse before they can get better. That is what I think will happen now. I keep calling the one friend I have still on the ground in Moscow, and asking, when are you leaving? I know and she knows it may be a final goodbye. She is lucky to have the option. Others don’t.
And no, none of what I wrote says a word about Ukraine, but you all know what I think about Ukraine and its people, and what I have spend the last eight months and counting working on. A labor of love as it is entirely unpaid. I hope for a day in the not so distant future when all the talk is of rebuilding a free and independent Ukraine as well as a free and independent Russia.
If we stop dreaming, what point is there to wake up in the morning?
Honored to be on this journey with you. Have the utmost respect for your resilience, problem-solving abilities, empathy and heart.