The disruptors
This week I am thinking about how much uncertainty there is at this time, and how we as humans are responding to it.
This week I haven’t had a lot to say, namely because the events taking place are beyond my area of expertise. What astounds me is how many online commentators, many of them (but not all) male, continue to blast their thoughts into the internet without having any real knowledge about what is unfolding.
There are massive anti-Russia protests taking place in Georgia. They seem to be gaining momentum. That is all I can say on the matter. To understand what is happening in more detail, I recommend following accounts written by actual Georgians (for example). Here is a BBC report from on the ground in Tbilisi.
In Syria, rebels fighting against Assad and Russia seem to have with remarkable speed retaken territory. We hear so little about Syria that this seems to have taken the world by surprise. Again, I have zero knowledge about this conflict, and would recommend reading updates written by journalists who have long covered the region. Here is one such article although it is behind a WSJ paywall.
This, by journalist Oz Katerji, is spot on:
Today I asked yet another Ukrainian when the war will end, and they answered, “not anytime soon”. Most ordinary people remain convinced there are higher powers who want the war to continue, I assume for economic reasons. I have a hard time getting my head around this, because looking at the picture in both Russia and Ukraine, the war isn’t helping anyone economically. However, if the argument is that those in power currently in both countries don’t want the war to end because that would mean a threat to their own power, I would agree with that. A recent poll in Ukraine showed Zelensky to have little popular support, and new elections are not taking place anytime soon in Ukraine precisely because of the war.
I would not hold by breath for Trump to get both sides to the table, despite his claims, because I think his first 100 days in office will be focused on his motto: America first. There does seem to be cautious optimism about Trump’s pick for Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, a retired general who has been to Ukraine and visited the front lines.
"There will be no (outright) pro-Ukrainian appointments (under Trump)," Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko told the Kyiv Independent. "But it's good if an appointee is not anti-Ukrainian."
I cannot speculate what 2025 will bring, but Ukrainians here in Austria are asking me if the EU will continue to extend their status as “temporarily protected” here, and I sure hope the answer is yes. The bigger fear at the moment is likely that even more Ukrainians will seek shelter here this winter, as Russia continues to attack both cities and electricity infrastructure. Electricity outages in major Ukrainian cities are now a fact of life, again. Even Austrian authorities warned recently they have seen a recent increase in the number of Ukrainians coming to Austria for the first time, with now more than 2000 new arrivals each month. Of course, the welcome infrastructure is long gone. The “arrival center” is operating at full capacity, access to a basic payment of €260 per adult and €145 per child is possible once one registers with the police and applies for health insurance, but of course everyone understands an independent life on this money is next to impossible. Social housing options are still extremely limited. In short, coming to Europe is still a choice only for those with some financial safety cushion to rely on.
The FT recently reported more Ukrainian soldiers deserted this year than during the first two years of the war, which is completely understandable.
In this context, the Biden administration’s recent remarks suggesting Ukraine should lower its draft age to 18 in order to fill the manpower gap come off as remarkably tone deaf nearly three years into this war. Every young man and mother in Ukraine knows exactly what conditions soldiers face (lack of ammunition and equipment) and that every person with enough money to pay a bribe or enough influence to avoid scrutiny has gotten their young man out of the country. That is all any mother of any 17 year old thinks about. In short: I do not believe changing the draft age will have any effect as the problem is the vast majority of Ukraine’s citizens already realise those terrorises lost are gone forever (“Donetsk has been gone since 2014”) and are not willing to sacrifice their loved ones anymore. The government is deeply unpopular, and the future is very uncertain. This combination means most Ukrainian citizens have turned to focusing on their own lives and what they can do to improve their own individual situation. The initial feelings of patriotism and working together for a common cause are, to my observation, mostly long gone. Which is, frankly, totally understandable.
The good news is, at least publicly, Zelensky has changed his tone, stressing he believes the war will end sooner with Trump as president. My concern is Trump will have so many moving parts on his plate during those first 100 days; I just don’t see how Ukraine will be on the top of priorities, as it isn’t a priority for U.S. voters, which is completely understandable.
Reading the news about Trump’s administration picks from afar, I thought of the word “disruptor” because these seem to be the people he is choosing: he seems to intrinsically be against any kind of insiders, choosing instead folks who might be keen to blow up the entire organization they have been picked by the president-elect to run. His choice of Kash Patel to run the FBI is a prime example. Sometimes, in business, such picks work. The McKinseys of the world make bazillions telling companies to blow themselves up from the inside, and sometimes cutting the fat and restructuring works. Government, however is a different beast, because government is not a for-profit operation (although a balanced budget is certainly a lofty goal). There are certain things in a society which have to work and cannot be cut. What we are about to see in the next four years, I think, is how much can be cut before the lack of such institutions will be felt at the local, i.e. average voter, level. It will be interesting to see if some of it actually works, or if the slicing and dicing will massively backfire. There is of course, a huge likelihood of pushback from within, as government bodies are not just their leaders, but also all the people who go to work every day to make the federal bureaucracy function. There is certainly fat to cut, the question is how much and how fast and with what consequences.
Trump also seems to have a very short attention span. His recent BFF-like relationship with Elon Musk is an example of this. For Elon, it has been a great return on investment, as many have pointed out.
I actually disagree with her last point. I don’t think for Elon it is about making money at now. At a certain point, the money is just a symbol. It is about power, and the proximity to it. You all saw the Thanksgiving video from Mar-a-Lago. I believe when you are already the richest person on earth in financial terms, you get high from the idea of being able to pull all the strings behind the scenes as well. The question is will Trump let Elon think he is pulling the strings, and for how long. I don’t know, but it sure looks like a bromance which might be short lived, and what Elon might do once this initial phase I over is anyone’s guess. What a strange time to be alive.
That’s all I’ve got today. I saw a film over the weekend which was good, not great, but good, “Lee”. On Netflix, I’ve been watching The Helicopter Heist, which I had no idea is actually based on a true story. I’m really enjoying it so far.
I cannot believe it is December 1. The city is bursting with Christmas markets and tourists. I think many of us have taken on the attitude that the world may be a dumpster fire at the moment but we can enjoy little moments of hedonism. Which is frankly, probably, quite a sane approach. Doesn’t feel like an era for long-term planning. Just ask any Ukrainian or Syrian how that turned out for them.
Giving Tuesday is not really a thing here in Europe, but just in case, a gentle reminder we are still sending out supermarket gift cards when and if we have funding. They do reach Ukrainian elderly and families in need. €50 doesn’t buy that much anymore, unfortunately, but it does help. And we are a zero-overhead charity. It’s just Mario and me volunteering our time (and stamps!).
Thank you! Wishing you all a good start to the official winter season.