The flood
Austria, along with several other parts of central Europe, has been quite literally under water these past few days. Plus, some reading recommendations.
My youngest sent me a video her classmate took on Sunday morning from his apartment window overlooking one of the normally empty canals which were built years ago in Vienna specifically for the purpose of preventing flooding. These, along with the “Danube Island”, built in the 1960s, saved the city from flooding this weekend. Over the past several days, we had wind and rain storms worse than any of us can remember, and they were relentless. We went from overheated classrooms which felt like a summer that refused to end, to almost overnight, single digits and just so much rain and wind. It was unlike anything I have ever experienced before. You could barely leave your apartment. An umbrella was useless — the wind was too strong, so anytime you walked even 100 meters you were soaked. The poor tourists — they too were everywhere, seeking refuge in cafes and Starbucks, draped in those plastic bag capes, as if still determined to see the museums and other sights. And to be fair, a mid-September visit is not a bad time to come to Austria. Normally. But there was nothing normal about the weather this weekend.
Vienna’s normally always-functioning public transport network is halfway closed down, at least until tomorrow, authorities say. Half of the subway stations are closed due to their proximity to still-very-high water levels. Schools announced that if you had trouble coming to school, you would be excused. The situation in Lower Austria, the federal state which surrounds Vienna, is much, much worse. Entire towns are flooded, people had to be rescued from their homes, and some have died in the process. The government is scrambling to help rescue efforts, and this will surely have an effect on the elections which are only two weeks away. What I find so frustrating about these “climate change” events is we here in Europe have actually been trying. We recycle. Many of us gave up our cars. And yet North America has done little if anything to change, still driving gas-guzzling SUVs, and it’s golden summer over there without a cloud in sight. Seems, unfair?
In this context, I don’t have a lot of local news to report, other than reports I am hearing from Tirol where authorities have started to issue debts (yes, you read that correctly) to Ukrainian refugees in the amount of their Ukrainian pensions (usually under €100 per month) which they received since they arrived in Austria. So imagine an elderly person has been receiving €260 per month for the past, say, two years. Now the local government is saying, aha, you had “income” in Ukraine, you now owe us €100 x 24 months = €2400. What the actual …. you might say, and not be wrong. Unfortunately when I hear such news there is not much I can do other than explain that anyone living on a handout is at the mercy of the state, and yes, they can basically do whatever they want within this gray zone of “basic aid”. To make it even more complicated, these rules are not universally enforced. In Vienna, a blind eye is turned, but not always, while other states like Salzburg have reportedly been pretty ruthless in executing this too. It is bitter because these pensioners usually are using their Ukrainian pensions, as tiny as they are, to pay their utility bills on their apartments back home, provided they are still standing. I think the big difference between now and a few years ago is these stories no longer shock me, nor do I have any hope of anyone changing things. Unfortunately. I am now as jaded as those NGO workers I encountered when the war first began, and I couldn’t believe what they were telling me was “normal”.
Some recommended reading and viewing in no particular order:
Do watch this six-minute clip from Fareed Zakaria, from Kyiv, in which he discusses the very real possibility of a “fresh exodus of people out of the country” as winter approaches and Russia continues to attack cities and electricity infrastructure:
Fareed: What Ukraine fears most
This op-ed in the Washington Post by David Ignatius. It says many of the quiet parts out loud. That Ukraine is not winning. That Russia winning will have consequences for all of us. And that what the collective west is doing now is like a drip, unclear how long it can keep the patient alive for on life support. Ukraine does not have an endless supply of men, and if you speak with any of them, you will hear loud and clear what they think about the state of their army and the war right now. Many are coming to terms with never going back to Ukraine in their lifetimes, the way they see things right now.
“But I came away from the conference thinking the United States should take more risks to help Ukraine. It matters how this war ends. If Putin prevails, it will harm the interests of America and Europe for decades.”
Ukraine is bleeding out. It cannot fight forever.
A very in-depth look at Russia’s ability to expand its military going forward by Dara Massicot of the Carnegie Foundation. She writes:
“Today, Putin increased the military’s size for the 3rd time since 2022. Can they sustain 1.5M postwar, at a time when the budget will be under pressure to procure equipment? Not without tradeoffs…
…Look for signs that this is a real initiative to recruit and expand, and not a kind of show to intimidate others. The current volunteer method is working but has strains. This means more expense/strain (best case for the Kremlin), they quietly ignore, or mobilize (worst case).”
Russian Military Reconstitution: 2030 Pathways and Prospects
It certainly seems as if, at least in the medium term, Russia can fight forever, while Ukraine most certainly cannot. And this has implications for all of us. Ok, yes, America can theoretically look away, and can re-define a new era of foreign policy in which it ignores its allies’ problems. But for those of us in Europe, I don’t really see how we can continue to ignore the war happening in our backyard as it creeps nearer and nearer to us. There will be yet another wave of Ukrainian civilians arriving in Europe this fall (it has already started, despite authorities making no visible efforts to prepare for it). Geography is a fact, and all of this is happening much closer to those in European capitals than our politicians would like to accept.
Changing gears — I highly recommend this Joshua Yaffe long read on a fascinating story which already received a lot of local press in Austria. Joshua does a great job about explaining wealth inequality in this little alpine nation, basically, that if you have tons of money it is 99% of the time inherited wealth, often stretching back generations. This raises some interesting questions about how one can best give away inherited wealth if you choose to do so. The idea of giving it away rather than building something new is so very Austrian, if you think about it. A Ukrainian businessman recently jokingly referred to modern Austrian capitalism as “communism” and he wasn’t entirely wrong. I would personally think how to take €25 million and build something which would create jobs and be useful for society and build another €100 million over time. This, described in the article, is an entirely different approach going so far as to not only give the money away, but let ordinary fellow citizens from all walks of life decide how to allocate the donations. Bonkers. Totally bonkers. But fascinating: