The future of Ukraine (Day 108)
Today a big picture look at where things stand, what is happening on the ground in Ukraine, and the future consequences for Europe and the world. Plus a micro update from Vienna.
I was scrolling through my photos as I don’t have any photos myself of war-torn Ukraine. I observe everything from the news like all of you and through the voices and stories I hear from Ukrainians already in Austria. I chose this borsch photo we received a few weeks ago from a Hofer card recipient as the flavour of any soup, but especially a thick, rich soup like borsch, changes over time. When I consume the news about Ukraine, what happened yesterday, today, this week, I always think about it in the context of what does this mean for six months from now? What consequences will this have for the rest of the world? What action needs to be taken now?
I cannot comment nor do I want to comment on military strategy, nor politics — much of which of late makes me just sick to my stomach, with the notable exception of this interview by Poland’s president. I don’t agree with him on zero abortion access, but I appreciate Duda calling a spade a spade.
And no, Putin has not yet murdered 6 million Jews, as I know people get upset about the Hitler comparisons, but he is operating camps, he is committing genocide, his troops are murdering civilians, abducting Ukrainian children to Russia: I’m ok with the Hitler comparison. They were/are both delusional mass murderous psychopaths and there was only peace when the former was dead. That much is fact. I wrote at the beginning of this war and stand by it: there will not be peace until Putin is gone.
And yes, that process will lead to a very unstable Russia for a period of time — strange Macron and Scholz still seem to think they can stabilise Russia by preserving Putin like Lenin in a tomb embalming him so as to prevent iNsTaBiLiTY. Instability, temporary chaos in Russia, is the only way out. Russia has no future under Putin. Ukraine has no future under Putin. One thing both countries still have in common.
This week, Putin revealed his true colors. IMHO they have been clear for sometime for anyone who wanted to see them. But nonetheless, for the sake of a complete analysis, exhibit A, wannabe imperial ambitions revealed by FT headline:
Or exhibit B, how do you say delusional visions of Lebensraum in Russian:
Today, I am sharing a lot of news, highlighting both the gravity of the military situation and the dreadful fact (I think we can already call it a fact) that this war is going to go on for a long time with much more pain to come and serious consequences for all of us, even those, and there are many in Austria, who prefer to pretend that Ukraine is on Mars rather than a mere 800km, a day’s drive, to the east.
Joshua Yaffa on the the reality on the ground for the Ukrainian soldiers facing a non-stop barrage of Russian heavy weaponry (I heard on the radio this morning about 1960s era bombs the Russians are dropping — massively inaccurate, massively dangerous) in the Donbas.
It is no wonder there have been growing reports about morale among Ukrainian troops. They are also suffering extraordinary losses. A chilling report from Severodonestsk:
On why evacuations are harder than ever now:
It is frustrating so many smart minds must keep repeating the same arguments over and over about why appeasement doesn’t work, and yet the history of the world is a in large part built around a fear of tyrants. Don’t stand up to the tyrant, he grows more brazen. But nuclear weapons, they say. Yes. Are you going to give him the whole world because he has nuclear weapons? Or you think you are special Germany and he therefore won’t attack? So Ukraine is expendable but other countries are not?
And, gravely, most importantly, looking towards the future of Ukraine as the war drags on and what this means for all of us.
How will Europe respond? And it cannot do this alone — UK, US and Canada are going to have to help — you cannot only send weapons but not help with the humanitarian response within Europe. What will happen to Ukraine’s economy as it population drains and normal life is halted by war? What about all the brave young Ukrainian men dying every single day? What about their mothers and wives and kids? I don’t know the answers to any of these questions, and I worry about them. If we aren’t coping well, as Europe, with the refugees here now, what happens when that number doubles? What then?
Meanwhile, Meduza reported this week on Russia’s plans for bogus referendums and annexation of occupied Ukrainian territories. Territories it might technically control but it has not won over the local population. Not for a second. If you open TikTok you see plenty of very freely spoken videos from occupied territories. One woman posted last night of random checks on public transport in Kherson — the Russian occupiers are now even checking women for tattoos, symbols of Ukrainian nationalism, etc. She says, fearlessly, “what do they think they are going to accomplish, stopping women and checking us?”
There are also TikToks from Mariupol, absolutely dystopian showing scenes of utter and complete destruction, but surreal — the black, charred Soviet-era apartment buildings in the heat of the summer sun and a make-shift market with 3 cars parked in the sun with trunks open displaying a few sad items for sale. What an economy. And the TikToker, a paid Russian propagandist, adds captions like “Russia will make it all better” and you are like what the actual … Russia did THIS. Russia did all of this. Russia cannot ever make anything better here.
If you would like more color on the view from official Moscow, I don’t have the stomach for it these days, but this by Leonid Bershidsky, who apparently still does have a stomach to read and analyse what is being said, is good: Hard Lessons From the War in Ukraine.
Every time I see posts on Facebook or Instagram from former acquaintances in Moscow still living normal lives I am triggered. I am triggered by the silence in most part of an entire nation. Yes, many Russians who could afford to, voted with their feet, and left, at great personal sacrifice. But think of all those who didn’t. All those who close their eyes to the death and destruction (on both sides, because a phenomenal number of young Russian soldiers are dying for nothing, too). I would love to know how that conversation in your head goes.
I suppose it goes the same way I know instinctively one day I will grab the passports and the documents and get on a plane to North America when Austria becomes a puppet state as long as the airport is still open. I need to be faster than everyone else in seeing that becoming a reality. Sometimes it’s hardest to see what you are standing right next to. Perhaps that’s why I am trying so hard to accomplish as much as I can to help the Ukrainians in Austria now. Because I fear next, I will have to put my own family first. You brush the thoughts aside, don’t want to think about it. But I digress.
Now to the micro. Yesterday was totally nuts. This whole week was totally nuts even though it only really started on Wednesday when we finally got a flight home from our mini-break. I thought to give a flavour I would just share little tidbits. Together, they make a collage.
Upper Austria — 7 Ukrainian women and kids I met in April when they lived in a shelter in Vienna, ran out of money, state money hasn’t arrived yet — two hours later a local resident brings them cash, the Ukrainians call me (twice!) in tears of gratitude, by the afternoon a local MP from Greens called me, promised bureaucratic wheels are spinning, help is on the way
Vienna — a Ukrainian mom of two young kids with fluent German and several university degrees sends me a desperate message asking for help finding a job nothing is working out — over the next few days she receives several leads from Austrians and calls me yesterday thrilled she has interview next week and then mentions oh by the way I was in the emergency room for six hours today after my kid hurt himself in kindergarten
Vienna
Carinthia — a Ukrainian mom of six whom several local residents have helped writes me in excitement to tell me she has written an article which will be published soon in German in a local church paper and would I like to read it?
Lower Austria — a middle-aged woman writes me she finally escaped “that” hotel but she has no money and her documents got lost and have to start the registration process again and could I help because no one wants to help when you don’t have small kids and her son is already grown up
Vienna
Innsbruck: “Hi I came from Kharkiv to Innsburck with my mom and adult daughter and 4 cats and a dog. Red Cross only gives food for one pet. We don’t have enough money for all the tails! Cat litter costs €10. Could you please help us with a card?” Within a few hours a local resident reached out and promised to send a card today. The cat mom sent me a photo of all the “tails”:
Yesterday I was back at the train station and it was ridiculously intense. My phone kept ringing and buzzing, I couldn’t answer, Ukrainians kept arriving late or getting lost, and then I had unannounced visitors. One woman went to Westbahnhof instead of Hauptbahnhof. Twice she tried to find me. Twice she didn’t manage. I gave a card for her and her sister to my pensioner friend, who also showed up unannounced. In short, there is a reason we try to send most of the supermarket cards by post. But I try to meet with residents of Vienna dorms and hotels in person, both because I don’t trust their mail delivery and also because they are usually in the most vulnerable situations. Yesterday was like a whirlwind. By the end of three or four hours I could barely drive home my migraine was pounding.
An expert car mechanic whose wife is a cosmetologist but neither have work yet. In order to get jobs, they need to find new housing. A former small businessman whose wife is doing cosmetic treatments here for Ukrainian clients but he wants to go to Canada. She wants a divorce. It’s complicated. A young woman who spoke excellent English and will soon go to Norway because she has a Persian cat and it couldn’t go across the Atlantic in cargo and it was all very, very complicated with the cat and the airlines and customs and it’s good she will be in Norway soon.
A woman I met last week who arrived with a whole group of women and then yelled at me why her daughter hasn’t received a card yet. It is strange when you do something on a voluntary basis out of good will and then people complain about the process but then, one thing I really felt yesterday: everyone’s emotions, Ukrainians, volunteers, everyone somehow involved, are hanging on by a thread. The tiniest thing sets many people off.
Just when I thought I could leave, my pensioner friend showed up. Asked me to help get a ticket to Krakow. The ticket situation is now all changed. Now Ukrainians can get free tickets either in the machines in the lobby (for short distances or within Austria), but you need a 10 cent coin and staff from ÖBB are on hand to help. For longer distances, Ukrainians can no longer go to the main ticket office, but rather should go to the Lounge, where they are served by 1-2 employees, and stand in a line, upstairs, out of sight, out of… You get the idea.
So we walk over to the Lounge, and get in line. It is only Ukrainians. A woman in her late 50s was in front of us. She was wearing all black but I didn’t pay attention to that at first. As soon as the women in line figured out I am a volunteer (I have a badge with my name written in Russian over the colors of a Ukrainian flag), they all started asking me at the same time about their train routes. 99% of them were heading back to Ukraine. Including this woman in black. Who then began sobbing uncontrollably and told us all she was going home to bury her son who just died in hospital in Kyiv.
I told her it would be ok. We would help her get there. I tried to get her to calm down before we go to the ticket counter. In between, I consulted other families including one in which the old father was in such bad shape I said to the daughter, you cannot put him on a train today, like this, but she insisted. He must go home. I helped my pensioner friend get a ticket to see his daughter in Krakow. He cannot live with her and the grandkids because his ex-wife is with them. They are set up well in Poland. Better than he in Austria. I help the mourning mom get her ticket to the Hungary-Ukraine border for later that afternoon. When it is all done, I say goodbye to the whole group, and she pulls me aside. She shows me a photo of her late son. She begs me to take €10. I explain I am a volunteer, I cannot take money. She begs me, says she was working in Italy, she wants me to buy chocolates for my kids. I agree, and do just that. I also start crying. And give her a hug. And wish her strength. Basically every day I start crying. That is the new normal.
Then I drive home and answer a few missed calls and a thousand texts and I received some heat yesterday for this post because it apparently upset some of the folks who have been helping Natasha and Pasha since they arrived in Austria. Some of them wanted to give me the full picture, their perspectives, and for that I thanked them (do you see how diplomatically I wrote that?). It was explained to me the Ukrainian psychologist is being compensated for her time and was hired to work with the family. That monetary arrangement was never told to me directly during my visit. The various special arrangements made along the way since the family arrived in Austria also had a certain logic behind them, but I was not privy to that information, and those steps were not described to me by the Ukrainians, therefore they are not part of my story, how could they know what happened behind the scenes?
In short: my story reflects what I saw, what I was told, my impressions. I stand 100% behind it.
My goal in writing — because I was asked that too yesterday — which I found to be an odd question since I literally highlighted the goal in bold print in the middle of the piece I wrote on Thursday after I met Natasha and Pasha was simple. I tried to outline it as clearly as possible. I saw their circumstances, saw how they are living, and thought it could be better, considering both what Austria/EU has to offer and everything they have been through. My lived experience, especially during this current crisis in Austria, has been when you draw attention to things, sometimes they improve for the better because the global village helps. Because when you wait for the system to work, you wait. The system often does not work. If you’ve been reading me for more than two days, you know that already.
Today, for example, I picked up a laptop for Pasha from PCs für Alle which one of my readers made arrangement for. I will take it to him tomorrow. I have already received several expressions of interest in helping to make a plan for Pasha’s education and sports and new geographic locations for the family, and I will share all the options with them. It is entirely up to Natasha and Pasha to decide what is best for them. I see my role as simply putting options on the table they didn’t have before.
I am not part of any establishment here in Austria. I do not wear any hat nor bat for any team. I speak with everyone and have one goal: to make life better for the Ukrainians seeking refuge in Austria. Why? Because I speak Russian and can communicate with them and care about what happens to them. Hence, the Hofer card project, hence, my volunteering at the train station, hence, the many “one off” solutions we have solved together over Twitter simply by connecting people, those in need of help, and those able to help. I am just a middleman. A connector-communicator.
I do the media work not because I enjoy it (I do not enjoy it) but to draw attention to the issues and raise awareness and funding for the Hofer card project. Likewise, when I received media inquiries yesterday for Natasha, I pushed back on those. First a better solution, a perspective for her and her son, then interviews. She has already told her story to the world’s press. I don’t see why she should have to tell it again until she feels more settled and if she chooses to do that.
I was a bit offended yesterday because it felt like my motivations were being questioned while I feel I have always been more than transparent about that. I have never thought about am I hurting someone’s feelings or not. I don’t write with an agenda. I have only ever thought about how can I improve the life for this Ukrainian family asking me for help, either in front of me or via my phone. That’s it. And I am lucky to have a large audience of readers with the means to help and generous hearts and sympathy for what the people of Ukraine are going through right now.
In short — I’ll bring Pasha his new laptop tomorrow, and will continue to share with the family the options I hear about, so that they may make the decision they believe is best for their future. Perhaps that means staying where they are, perhaps it means choosing a new city, town or even country. Just like the grocery card project offers choice and gives people their dignity back, putting options on a table also allows people to empower themselves to choose what is best for them. Of course, this isn’t always possible from day one. But day one is now long behind us.
One final thing. Sorry. This must be the longest post ever! We have very exciting news. You can now donate in two clicks for Hofer cards using a credit card, Apple Pay, or Google Pay.
We are distributing €50 supermarket gift cards to Ukrainian families in Austria. One card per family, one time. We have a huge waiting list and can only distribute cards when we receive funding for them. I managed to hand out 28 cards in person yesterday; those donations came from two generous individuals. We need more donations in order to provide cards to the families who requested them. Mario built this ticker where you can see his bulk card distribution in real time, and the length of the waiting list. It is, unfortunately, enormous.
I am also running my own smaller waiting list, which I send both my mail and meet in person. These are families who contact me directly and/or live in Vienna. If you would like to help me with those, I can accept PayPal or €50 supermarket gift cards by post (DM me please for my address!).
DANKE! Thank you for reading. Thank you for your continued support.
p.s. this wonderful op-ed came out in German earlier this week by an Austrian journalist who has been covering the refugee response here for 20 years, and I don’t think I linked to it yet here. She also mentioned our Hofer card project. Do read it:
Its incredible what one person, you, can accomplish. Im just amazed. You are a blessing to us all 😘