Thinking a lot about Russia
Will Russia invade Ukraine or is it all hype? Baerbock in Moscow, Putin's niece exposed as a coal magnate, simple pensioner taken hostage in Kazakhstan, Austria's vaccine mandate on shaky legs.
I’ve spent most of the past 24 hours thinking about what Russia will do, and I suppose a lot of the world is thinking about what Russia will do, except perhaps people in Russia, who seem for the moment at least to be going about their daily lives without a real expectation of war with Ukraine. I suppose this is exactly what the Kremlin wants. The world’s attention and calm at home.
I listened yesterday to the speech Germany’s foreign minister Baerbock gave in Moscow after her talks with Russia’s foreign minister Lavrov. I must admit, I underestimated her. She arrived well prepared, with well-chosen words, which clearly illustrated Germany is not the aggressor here, and acknowledged the historical past. Lavrov, on the other hand, just rambled on and on during the Q&A about the non-issue of RT Deutschland getting kicked out of Germany. He gave the impression of a man who has been trying for years to quit his job but no one is accepting his resignation.
I live tweeted Baerbock’s remarks and the Q&A, you’ll find them here:
It will be a busy week for western diplomacy. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken is in Kyiv, then heading to Berlin, and will end the week by meeting Lavrov in Geneva on Friday. I have the distinct impression all this diplomacy is just buying time, the Russians are treading water until one man decides what he is going to do.
The U.S. and UK can afford to be agressive, arm Ukraine, etc. while Germany, to be fair, has to play a different role by definition. It is a major trading partner of Russia, is dependent to a certain extent on Russian gas, as we all are, and if war comes, it is going to come to us here, in the middle of Europe, as some observers are finally realising. If it comes, British and American experts will continue to analyse what is happening from their computer screens and iPhones in London and Washington DC, while the rest of us might have to simply wait and see if our governments will turn pro- or anti-Russia. You can imagine which way the wind would blow in Austria. But I digress.
Today is the Epiphany in Russia. I am sure we will see later today videos of Putin taking an icy dip. I watched the intro to Russian state news last night, something I almost never do of course, but I wanted to see how the whole Ukraine situation was being explained at home to Russians. The answer? It isn’t. It was item 6 of 7 on the list of headlines for the 9pm national news.
The message is President Zelensky is a loose cannon, he is spinning out of control, and western media such as the horrible New York Times (whose name has come up a lot recently, NYT was also mentioned by foreign ministry spokeswoman Zakharova who reportedly questioned why it needs so many Moscow correspondents after NYT published an article implying the Russian embassy in Kyiv had sent most of its staff and their families back to Russia on buses) are to blame for all the drama.
With all the focus on RT Deutschland in the Lavrov-Baerbock press conference yesterday, I wouldn’t put it past the Kremlin to do something crazy like kick out the entire NYT desk just because, just for fun.
Meanwhile, in Belarus, Russian soldiers and equipment are arriving for military drills next month, with reports the soldiers will stay for 6-9 months (!). I was even reading about pontoon bridges, and staring at a map of the Dnieper River and Kyiv. This is causing all sorts of speculation from the Belarusian arms will help the Russians invade Ukraine, to maybe this is Russia’s way of occupying Belarus, to perhaps — and this may sound totally crazy — but perhaps even both are true.
This is an excellent piece by an expert on Russia’s military moves on why an invasion might still happen even if it would appear, to the normal observer, not to be in Russia’s interests:
The markets are also reading the news and reacting. The Russian index was down 8% yesterday. It will be interesting to see if investors come in to “buy the dip” or if the looming risk of war is going to weight down Russian stocks for the time being. Keep in mind oil prices are through the roof.
Putin’s secret niece + husband: coal magnate and governor of Kemerovo
This investigation broke this morning by brave journalists who have already been labeled “foreign agents” by the Russian government for their earlier work. TL:DR: Russia’s coal-rich area is Kemerovo. In the mid 2000s, a company was formed called Kolmar. It has grown to be a top 5 Russian coal producer. It was run by Sergei Tsivelev. In 2018, after the horrible fire in a Kemerovo shopping mall (Winter Cherry) when many people including many children died, Putin fired the governor of Kemerovo and appointed Sergei Tsivelev as governor. Tsivelev’s wife, Anna, took over as CEO of Kolmar.
It turns out, Anna is actually Putin’s niece, the daughter of Putin’s cousin Evgeny, who was a simple doctor in Ivanovo. His son and Anna’s brother, Mikhail, was miraculously appointed to a leading role in Gazprom, which, as Putin’s spokesman explained, was purely a coincidence as he is only a very distant relative and the two barely speak. Aha.
The 20 minute video in Russian is a fascinating look into how wealth is held by relatives on behalf of Russia’s president, and how entire regions are therefore under the control of trusted appointees. It even shows embarrassing charity work done by Anna, such as a video showing the charity fund purchasing three pairs of glasses (yes, really) for a father who is raising his triplets on his own after their mother died when they were babies.
I hope a version of the video with English subtitles will come out soon; if you understand Russian it is worth 20 minutes of your time.
Simple pensioner taken hostage in Kazakhstan
A truly remarkable video emerged yesterday of 81 year old Nursultan Nazarbayev sitting at a table surrounded by four Kazakh flags and a gold clock, explaining he is an ordinary pensioner, there is no trouble nor conflict, and everything is fine nothing to see here.
Not sure if ordinary Kazakhs will feel any relief in seeing this. Meanwhile, the removal of Nazarbayev family and friends from key posts in Kazakh companies appears to continue unabated. It is a big and very wealthy family, with many assets located abroad, so I imagine this may take some time.
A Russian friend who lives in London near Royal Albert Hall told me this week, “Kazakhstan? Yeah, they own half the neighbourhood here.” Sounds about right.
Austria vaccine mandate on shaky legs
Last but not least, I did what I do not advise you to do, and watched some ORF Austrian television last night. It is always a mistake, I remembered, about ten minutes in, but I was curious how the country’s health minister would walk through the mess of a vaccine mandate law which is scheduled to be passed by parliament tomorrow.
In short, even he doesn’t believe it. The mandate is complicated, will only be enforced in steps, they expect the police to do the enforcing and the police do not want to do the enforcing, and the mandate doesn’t even apply in the workplace.
I live tweeted my viewing here:
Well, we’ve made it to Wednesday. I promise tomorrow I will try for a Russia-free newsletter. I’d like to take a look at new data emerging on kids and Omicron, food inflation in CEE, and Bosnia boiling while we all are preoccupied look eastward. Thanks for reading!