This is fine
Every direction you look, there is worrying news. Have we grown collectively accustomed to this new normal?
I was recently in the Albertina gallery, and there was a wonderful exhibit of photography from America around the time of my own childhood. As I was looking through my photos this morning, thinking which one to use today, I decided this was the only appropriate photo for the feeling of everything is on fire and yet no one is grabbing a hose. We watch through our screens as Russia continues to attack Ukrainian cities, as Iran sends drones to Israel, as Israel destroys what is left of Gaza, as Ukraine warns of likely retreat due to lack of ammunition and Russian tank build-ups. We watch as Putin relishes the geopolitical chaos he wishes for the west to be confronted with:
We watch as Trump continues to run for president despite the zillion court cases against him. We watch as Biden cuts his weekend short to return to the White House, and yet he is the age of a retiree and he should have a weekend every day in theory. Someone half his age should be doing his job (two-thirds would also be just fine!). I read last night, again through a screen, that it was left to Kamala Harris to do the dirty work of personally telling Zelensky not to bomb Russian oil refineries. Good cop, bad cop. But why? Surely after two plus years of flag waving and “whatever it takes” from the mouths of western politicians, the U.S. included, the fate of Ukraine is more important than domestic gas prices during an election year in America. Or is it?
From the Washington Post reporter who broke the story:
In conversations with ordinary Ukrainians here in Europe, one thing has become really clear over the past several months: no one dares make any predictions about the course of the war nor what could happen tomorrow, next month, next year. Sitting here in Europe, they too are of course asking themselves these questions, what will happen with our hometowns? Will we be able to go back one day? I recently saw a video on TikTok of a blogger who decided to stay in Kharkiv with her two kids and husband; she was adamant from the very start of the war that they would wait it out, at home, in their own apartment, even if that meant living through attacks every night, electricity and water cuts. She posted a video the other day of her and her son, probably aged around eight, huddled in the hallway (two walls between them and the exterior of the building), waiting for the latest round of Russian drone attacks to pass. Her son looked absolutely terrified. She said a drone had just hit “nearby”. The comment section was ruthless, ripping her apart for still living there with kids. Most Ukrainians you meet here in Europe would say something similar: if not for yourself, you have to leave for somewhere safer for your children. And yet…many do not. Many have become accustomed to adjusting their lives around electricity and water schedules, around online school or school in basements, around going to sleep and hoping the night will be quiet.
In a recent discussion, I mentioned what Russia did once to cities like Grozny and Aleppo, as if to hint that it could do the same to Kharkiv, just because Ukraine did not surrender as Russia had expected. A military expert I listened to recently said he did not think the Russian army could take Kharkiv on the ground, but I don’t see anything preventing Russia from bombing the city and its infrastructure until it is uninhabitable. Apparently, in order to protect Kharkiv, Ukraine would have to push Russia back beyond its own border, i.e. Kharkiv lies too close to Russia’s border to be protected without pushing Russia back inside Russia, which clearly isn’t going to happen. So in the long run, this seems like a dead end situation for Ukraine’s second largest city. So if you are a Ukrainian from Kharkiv living in Europe, or in another part of Ukraine, you have some pretty tough decisions to make now about what to do with your real estate, while there is still a market. Ironically, I have friends from Russia now asking themselves similar questions, trying to sell inside Russia to those who have money but cannot spend it abroad (you can imagine which sectors they work in), so that those Russians who are already living abroad can at least get their capital out of Russia. But these are hugely emotional decisions. To part with something you saved up for, or inherited, real estate is supposed to be permanent. Wars are not supposed to happen. Those are supposed to be safe investments. Until one day the rug is pulled out.
Here in Europe, the Austrian government recently announced a new program which will be voted into law this summer, providing a select group of Ukrainians with well-paid jobs and who have completed a basic German course (A1) a path to a residence permit which serves as a work visa for other nationalities of immigrants. The criteria for Ukrainians to apply for a “Red-White-Red-Plus” card (like the flag) include basic income requirements plus allowances for each dependent child, a language course, and employment of at least 12 months. This was actually lowered for Ukrainians; other nationalities must work for 21 months to make this application. The hurdle though: income of: €1200 adult + €200 per kid + monthly rent - €360 = a mother of two would have to make at least €1840 after taxes assuming she pays a very modest €600 in rent. This is nearly impossible for someone who just arrived and is still learning the language and in this real estate market. There are no exceptions to the calculation, not for dependent grandparents, handicapped spouses, etc. etc. So the end result will be newspaper headlines that make the government look like it is doing the right thing for highly educated Ukrainians while only a small minority (estimated currently around 10% of Ukrainians in Austria) will actually qualify to apply this summer. It is very hard to find a job in Austria, and when you live in housing provided by the state under the basic care program, which ironically thinks you can live on €260 per month rather than the calculation above, you risk losing your housing the minute you take paid, full-time employment. In short, it’s complicated.
What will happen to the rest of the Ukrainians in Europe post-March 2025? We don’t know yet, but we anticipate the EU will extended their “temporary protection” status for at least another year if not longer. Which means that all the Ukrainians in Austria who do not qualify to apply for these new RWR+ cards will simply ask for “blue cards” for another year or more, but none of these years count towards any kind of permanent resident status. So theoretically, the moment the war is one day over (and no one dares speculate when that might be), all the Ukrainians in Europe living on these “blue cards” could theoretically be told “your time is up, now go home”. You can imagine that most Ukrainians prefer not to think about this. They are so focused on learning the local language, getting settled, finding housing and jobs if they can, that you don’t risk asking yourself, what then?
In terms of my volunteer work, it has naturally taken a back seat this week as I have been visiting the hospital daily (see my last post). Olya hears us, and moves her right arm and leg to answer us, but has not yet opened her eyes. We hope the doctors may be able to take her off the ventilator today. The medical team is amazing, but the recovery process from such a stroke is long and unpredictable. Patience. We are all learning patience.
I do still receive requests for Hofer cards, although not with the volume of say half a year ago. At the moment I have a small waiting list which I will address when I get the next batch of cards from Mario, or receive cards from you directly. I did receive a wonderful message from the mom who wrote me ever so upset that her family of four (her husband and son were both wounded and both lost legs and received prostheses in Austria) was living for months on end in a refugee hotel. The family finally was given their own apartment. She was beyond grateful. She told me the kids are happier than she had seen them in months. It was so nice to hear some truly good news from a family who really deserves it after all they have been through.
I would like to recommend a few articles, and if these links work correctly, you should be able to read them without a subscription. The New York Times has written recently both about Ukraine lowering the draft age to 25 from 27, and about those men who try to literally swim or run across Ukraine’s border into Europe.
Ukraine Lowered its Draft Age to 25. How do Young Ukrainians Feel?
In Ukraine’s West, Draft Dodgers Run, and Swim, to Avoid the War
Here in Europe, no one asks a young man how he got out or on what legal basis, from Ukraine’s perspective, he is here.
FT: Ukraine’s top commander says eastern frontline has ‘significantly worsened’ paints a grim picture all around. When you speak with Ukrainians with family members in the army or living in Ukrainian cities near the front lines, the situation sounds even worse than the general describes. And if early in the war there was hope that the west would step up it was just a matter of time, that hope has truly faded. It is very hard to gage from Austria what the European response will be, because Austria likes to exist with its collective head in the sand when it comes to national security. There was a fascinating recent poll in which 72% of Austrians expect other EU countries to help defend Austria if she is attacked, but only 14% would be ok with Austria helping other EU nations defend themselves. Austria is not a NATO member.
Another worrying piece of this puzzle which I think has so far passed under most radar screens is how China has quietly ramped up its military and security aid to Russia. What is even more interesting is not that this is happening (fairly predictable), but that U.S. is having to pressure Europe to do something about it! And yet here in Europe, I have read next to nothing about China’s military aid to Russia. Here in Europe, we have let the Chinese build “compounds” for lack of a better term. There is an entire complex — office and residential, right in the middle of one of Vienna’s poshest neighbourhoods. Actually only a stone’s throw from luxury historical villas, many of which were “aryanized” and stolen from Jewish families before the war. The lessons that were not learned with Russia were also not learned with China. It worries me this trend of the U.S. stepping away, realising it cannot do everything alone, and then at the same time having to explain to Europe what Europe should be doing in its own national/collective interests in its own backyard.
FT: US says China is supplying missile and drone engines to Russia
”In addition to rhetorical pressure, the US wants Europe to increase its use of economic tools. One person said Europe had sanctioned three Chinese groups since the invasion, in comparison to more than 100 by Washington…The person said Beijing had become increasingly confident that its support for Moscow would not jeopardise economic relations with Europe, and it would be concerned about any stepped up pressure given its economic problems. She said sanctions from European countries could have a very significant impact on changing the calculus in China.”
So here we are. The one thing everyone seems to have in common at the moment is no good answer to the question, what will happen next? How will this all end? The only thing each of us can do is continue to take one day at a time. You focus on your own micro problems and challenges because thinking global is often too painful. You don’t make long-term plans because you have no idea what long-term even means. You have lost that confidence, perhaps not entirely, but a lot of the shine is gone, that the future will be brighter, better. I think a lot of us look directly into a giant question mark, and learning to live with that in this “new normal” is its own kind of challenge.
"So here we are. The one thing everyone seems to have in common at the moment is no good answer to the question, what will happen next? How will this all end? The only thing each of us can do is continue to take one day at a time. You focus on your own micro problems and challenges because thinking global is often too painful. You don’t make long-term plans because you have no idea what long-term even means. You have lost that confidence, perhaps not entirely, but a lot of the shine is gone, that the future will be brighter, better. I think a lot of us look directly into a giant question mark, and learning to live with that in this “new normal” is its own kind of challenge."
Well said. For myself, in addition to what was so well said above, is my anger which I measure as being equalled to my angst. I have never been so angry, day after day angry in my life, not at this level of intensity. But, I will exercise some self control and not rant on. I just wanted to tip my hat at your last post.