Too many chefs in the kitchen?
The role of U.S. in the Russia-Ukraine mess, Europe who?, soldiers in Belarus, drones in Stockhom, Navalny Time cover story, China & Russia in Kazakhstan.
I promised you all no more Russia today and you get a photo of the Channel One ice rink on Red Square, taken in calmer, before times. I’m sorry. I spent most of yesterday with my mouth wide open, reading comments coming from the U.S. side, and wondering, could it be, as ridiculous as it might sound, that some folks in Washington DC, including in Biden’s own administration, actually want Russia to invade Ukraine? So they can play their little war games without having to send in a single American solider to die, and potentially boost Biden’s depressing approval rating? Now I understand that is a hefty accusation and it needs to be backed up by something, so here goes.
Yesterday, Blinken was in Kyiv. He said this:
How reassuring. Then I discover that seven sitting U.S. Senators have just returned from a trip to Kyiv. I was shocked. What the heck are seven U.S. Senators doing flying to Ukraine when they can’t even manage to pass domestic U.S. legislation so desperately needed by families? It would appear the diplomacy and talk of war around Ukraine is a timely distraction from the absolute mess that has been Biden’s efforts to pass his domestic legislation. TL:DR — there are two U.S. Senators, Sinema (AZ) and Manchin (WV) who are on paper Democrats but in practice vote with the Republicans and block everything. Saboteurs. And yet the media still call them Democrats, but I digress.
Then Biden spoke in the evening. Biden bluntly said he expects Russia to invade Ukraine. So much for diplomacy. Which made me wonder, maybe this is what the Biden White House wants? A showdown with “Mr Putin” so they can look tough on something?
Both Russia and the U.S. have made it perfectly clear they will not budge from their positions. Which raises the obvious question: what exactly is the point of the Blinken-Lavrov meeting in Geneva on Friday, if neither side is actually willing to negotiate?
Blinken is now on his way to Berlin.
Russia sent a list of its proposals, and wants written answers. Blinken even went so far as to say yesterday the U.S. will not be sending any written answers. So what exactly is the point of talking?
Europe, you ask, but what about them? Well, it’s complicated. German foreign minister did a decent job on her trip to Moscow a few days ago. Germany’s chancellor is trying to tread water. Yesterday, Macron spoke up, echoing a lot of the sentiment within Europe, namely that Europe is not even on the negotiating table while the U.S. and Russia relive their glory days of the 1980s, but if war breaks out, it will be here, in Europe.
Earlier in the day, I read this very good piece “Europe’s Unforgivable Failure” arguing that Europe has to do more to play an active role in its own future. I fear the opposite might actually happen in practice, that the EU falls apart within the next five years, strained from too many member states, disunity within the block, tensions with Russia, a mess brewing in the Balkans, etc, Russia and China games to create disagreements within, etc. Perhaps not the most likely scenario right now, but I would not rule it out.
But Ukraine, you ask? What are people thinking and feeling in Kyiv? One of the most surprising discoveries of this weeks’s news is how calm people are in the territories most likely to be imminently invaded by Russian forces per western media.
This is a great video report from Donetsk (in German), which is the capital of the DNR, territory occupied by pro-Russian separatists since 2014. Everyone interviewed says a version of “we just want a normal life and peace and to be able to travel freely”.
Russian troops continue to be moved into Belarus ahead of the so-called joint military exercises scheduled to take place there with in February. Journalists in Russia were able to interview and follow social media posts from relatives about which kind of soldiers are being sent where and for how long. Important to remember Russian soldiers and their families are under strict orders to keep mum after social media tags got them into trouble in years past, as they were used to pin their locations.
Finally, I think it’s important under worst case scenario thinking to ask how the rest of Russia’s neighbours are feeling. The answer? Not great. Sweden has been dealing with a sudden invasion of drones in its capital, which Russia knows nothing about, of course. Lithuania’s defence minister said the presence of Russian troops in Belarus is a direct threat to Lithuania, and Finland has moved itself up one notch on its scale of military readiness. So all around, slightly worrying.
Austrian news has really downplayed the entire situation so far, which isn’t surprising given that an entire generation of former leading Austrian politicians now sit on the boards of Russian companies close to the Kremlin. One astute observer did ask the question, should war break out in Europe, what will Austria’s position be?
Given the chaos that is the current state of politics in Austria, I would not be surprised if Vienna is one day a Russian hub from which it manages its newly won extended sphere of influence in central and eastern Europe. Only Austrians probably don’t want to get paid their salaries in rubles, so a few kinks to work out when it comes to the economy.
Speaking of rubles, oil prices are heading straight up, and the U.S. is talking of banning Russia from any kind of transactions with U.S. dollars should it invade Ukraine, although from a purely technical perspective, not sure that is even possible (apparently maybe it is). One thing is clear, Russia has been preparing for some time now for an eventual situation under which it is cut off from SWIFT. I’m not saying it would be pretty, but they would figure out a way. China would probably help them.
Putin is on his way to China on February 4. Expect a big show of Russian-Chinese friendship. Yesterday new naval exercises between China, Russia and Iran were announced, too. Also worth noting during the last Olympics held in China in 2008, Russia used that opportunity to engage in a little war in Georgia, while the world was distracted.
I can’t tell you what the rest of this week will bring, but I am concerned this is becoming a two-country dialogue between the U.S. and Russia, turning back the clocks decades, and exposing the weakness of the EU’s security framework of the past decades, namely, its focus on building ties through commerce. But NATO, you ask. Yes, NATO. NATO isn’t going to send a single solider to die on Ukrainian soil. But huge nations like America may play war games, and finance them, at the expense of young men from Ukraine and Russia. This is what I am most worried about at the moment.
Navalny on the cover of Time
A great cover story interview with Alexey Navalny was published by Time this week, both in English and Russian. The cover art looks as if it was designed for the sole purpose of pissing off Mr Putin himself.
Kazakhstan
Very briefly, an excellent long read if you are interested in the roles of Russia and China in Kazakhstan by a China expert.
Gosh, that’s probably more than enough for a grey, cold Thursday morning. I wish I could be more positive, but at the moment I’m just fixated on the real world implications of two very ageing presidents trying to look tough on the world stage while blood will be spilled here in Europe, and European “leaders” aren’t even at the negotiating table. The neutral Swiss will get to serve coffee and cakes on Friday, but that’s about it. At the moment, it certainly looks like Putin has the upper hand in all of this. He has captivated the world’s attention, his domestic audience hasn’t woken up yet to all of this brewing, and he gets taken seriously by China for the moment as it watches the whole shitshow with amusement.
Thanks so much for reading!
Thank you for your insights. I feel most acutely the absence of a functioning Austrian Ministry for Foreign Affairs. They are not just stumm, there is no organisation to speak of (the rot set in with you-know-who becoming Außenminister as a personal plaything). Schallenberg doesn't even qualify for the lad who brings in the tea towels. Bad times for Ukraine, bad times for Europe.