Ukraine in 2024
Much is being discussed and written about how the war is expected to unfold this year. Unfortunately, no immediate solutions nor good news. Recommended listens & reads.
I would like to begin by apologising — I have not been able to give adequate attention to this recently due to some personal stuff (gosh I hate that phrase) going on which I don’t really want to elaborate on just yet. In any case, my focus has been, for the first time in nearly two years, more on myself lately than on my Telegram chats and Cards for Ukraine, and I keep telling myself that old adage about putting your safety mask on first on the airplane. It is temporary, but sometimes you have to switch around your priorities, which is what I have done at the moment.
I would like to share with you some of what I have been listening to and reading this week, in order to better try and understand how the war is expected to develop in 2024, and what that means for the Ukrainian people. I consume all this information in this context, rather than seeing it as a military observation project. As I have written many times before, I don’t understand war as a concept from the outset. We had all hoped it might be over by now, and at the moment the only thing everyone seems to agree on is the expectation of a “long war” which I hear and just cringe as how much more suffering can a people be expected to take.
My impression from Ukrainians (and granted, this is biased because I am 90% of the time speaking with Ukrainians who are in Europe and have been here for some time) is that they are exhausted, morally, emotionally, physically. The stress over months and so many unknowns, as well as the day to day challenges (navigating a new life in an EU country is often anything but easy especially on a ridiculously limited budget), have taken their toll. I cannot speak for how the people in Ukraine feel, but I imagine the frustration is similar, if not worse. Life is really hard now for so many, and you don’t know how much longer this can go on for.
It is in this context that Ukraine reportedly wants to draft another 500,000 men. When you see interviews on social media with Ukrainians in Ukraine, the mood is mixed. Some say mobilization is a terrible idea, while others shrug as if to say those who have been fighting the last two years (without being killed or wounded in action) need to be rotated out. In general, I cannot imagine anyone is really happy about the idea of a half million men being drafted into an army whose prospects are unclear at best, and as Christopher Miller writes in his long FT report today, highly dependent on ongoing western aid. Which, in my humble opinion, is not a given, especially not in election year 2024.
To understand better how Ukrainian society is grappling with the mobilisation question and the various, complex viewpoints, I really recommend this excellent podcast interview with Kyiv Independent reporter Francis Farrell. He really summarises so well the nuance involved, and Francis has done a lot of front-line reporting meaning he also understand the perspectives of current soldiers freezing in the trenches. For example, Francis described how he went skiing in Ukraine over the holidays at a budget resort, and there draft officers were handing out summons to men of age to serve, while at a popular upscale resort, none of this took place. I think this really touches on the sentiment I have heard from Ukrainians in Europe, namely, that lawmakers who have not properly dealt with “corruption” (such a loaded word and in the current context refers to impressions of war profiteering amongst some of those in positions in power plus protecting their own from harm’s way) and whose own children are most likely sitting comfortably in a European country, away from the draft, cannot ask a half million ordinary citizens to go into the army, and certainly not indefinitely. Francis also touches on the idea being thrown around of there being a time limit on how long a solider can be expected to serve before being rotated out.
I also saw this week this report about relatives’ protests in Kyiv to ask their government to de-mobilize those soldiers who have already served nearly two years of war. This reminded me of a recent conversation I had with a mom here whose husband is a an army drone operator on the Belarusian border. When I asked her about mobilization, she sort of shrugged and said, “well they have to get the men from somewhere…”.
A new book, Our Enemies Will Vanish, is out now by veteran WSJ reporter Yaroslav Trofimov, which I have pre-ordered and am eagerly awaiting to finally arrive in my mailbox. In this review, The Atlantic describes the book as the first historical draft of how the war has unfolded so far.
In other reading, Neil Hauer wrote an interesting commentary on shifting narratives in the west regarding the war in Ukraine. I personally tend to feel narratives shift not so much from western press coverage (that too), but from my interactions with ordinary Ukrainians in Austria — the mood, how short the temper/fuse is, discussions in our group chat about issues affecting everyone. This week a woman was in a state of panic because her elderly mother with dementia is cared for by her brother, and now he should report to the military office. What to do? This woman understands exactly that if she brings her mom to Austria without her brother (because no one will let him cross the border now), there is no guarantee Austria will provide dementia care for an elderly Ukrainian woman so the daughter can go to work. That is an unrealistic expectation. So what I see amongst many ordinary Ukrainians is a sense of panic on the one hand and frustration on the other about seeing few acceptable options in front of them.
Let’s not forget about the economy and how it has suffered. On the podcast, Francis points out that Zelensky apparently said it takes six Ukrainians working and paying taxes to fund one soldier. That is a pretty remarkable statistic. And now just imagine U.S. and/or Europe turn off the taps, for whatever reason.
ORF published this in-depth research report (in Ukrainian with German subtitles) on the need for prosthetics in Ukraine and how this will be an issue for years to come. It includes interviews with the Superhumans Center in Ukraine. It is easier to look away than to watch. I think about how young, athletic men and women missing limbs has already become normalised in today’s Ukraine, and just how awful that is. And how those without access to the center will deal with the psychological and emotional challenges. The numbers are such that I can imagine there are simply not enough resources for everyone in need. I hope the west will help in this regard. But it is certainly the right thing to do to build these resources in Ukraine by Ukraine. I see the challenges of accessing healthcare in Europe for those with “ordinary” serious illnesses. I just cannot imagine a civilian hospital in a country not at war can help a soldier to mentally deal with what he has been through.
Regarding Ukrainians in Europe, the EU put out this very interesting report (I would like to read it in its entirety but have not yet had time) on the temporary protection scheme for Ukrainians in EU and what challenges have emerged. Published in December, it highlights many of the issues we have been focused on, including a long-term future status within EU for those who wish to stay. By no means a guarantee at this point. Certainly not for everyone. Those here in Austria have processed the unofficial messaging: German courses and paid work, the longer the better. Vienna local television did another report this week about why most Ukrainians living in Vienna are still unemployed.
In my group at the moment, the mothers are actively discussing school and the oral MIKA-D German tests some children must pass in order to move from a terribly-named “integration” class to an ordinary classroom, how to choose the next school, day to day issues. There are continued reports of “home visits” by interior ministry and/or police, checking that Ukrainians are actually living where they are registered. This too is apparently normal in Austria for those who have sought asylum or asked for state aid here. Although in this case all Ukrainians can be checked; not just those receiving basic social payments.
As I said up front, I don’t want to elaborate yet, but I have been dealing with some ordinary adult life stuff in Austria this week, and it continues to blow my mind just how difficult basic things can be here if you don’t fit into a certain box. I really do not know how so many ordinary Ukrainians managed, really against all odds, without language skills or past experience in an EU country, to build new lives here. It really is a testament to their collective tenacity.
I received a message this week from Maryna who has a job at a local grocery store chain, and had been searching for months for an apartment to rent with her mother and teenage daughter. All the landlords were turning them away because Maryna did not earn enough, in their opinion, to rent an apartment for three people. Finally, after months of searching, Maryna wrote me that they were successful. Perseverance pays off, but it is not for the faint of heart. Maryna also wrote that Austrians helped her, thanks in part to when I wrote about the family. I think kind people would have helped anyway, but it was nice to hear that the post had a positive impact. I then pause and think about those who don’t have the strength, emotionally or physically to persevere, what happens to them?
I bought four more Spar cards this morning, thank you. Some weeks I do a lot, other weeks much less, and that too is ok. When I write back that we are out of cards at the moment, most people are super understanding. When I do receive cards, I try to serve the neediest cases first. This time it included an 80 year-old man in Steiermark and a woman living in a Vienna “hotel” on €40 per month about to have major surgery. I will never understand a system that provides you major surgery free of charge but cannot provide you with a balanced diet. But that is out of my hands.
We are going ice skating this Sunday with 20 Ukrainian kids aged 8 to 14. I am really looking forward!’
