We need to talk about Germany
Military drills in Belarus, poop in St. Pete, car bomb in Montenegro, U.S. schools, U.S. inflation and Dopesick
I took this photo, per my iPhone, years ago on a hot summer day in Venice. It kind of perfectly sums up the mood of the moment, with analysts frantically typing up think pieces explaining this is the most dangerous moment in European security in the past 30 years, and yet, it would appear, everyone but the UK and U.S. are paralyzed to do anything about Putin’s war games.
Last night, the British army flew planes loaded with anti-tank weapons to Ukraine. Direct deliveries of equipment. Curiously, the flight path avoided German airspace. This drew lots of raised eyebrows on Twitter and a broader discussion on what Germany’s role in this whole Russia-may-or-may-not-invade-Ukraine-any-time-now mess actually is.
Today, Germany’s few foreign minister is in Moscow for talks. I fear Baerbock might end the day much like Borrell did almost exactly a year ago. I wouldn’t be too hard on her though. There are few people on this planet strong enough to negotiate one-on-one with Russia’s scariest foreign minister in decades, who despite his packs a day habit and not getting any younger, seems to enjoy publicly humiliating western diplomats as a little side show made for Russian state TV.
It is interesting that Germany, unlike Austria which still avoids the hot potato of properly discussing this issue out in the open to this day, is finally discussing the role of its former politicians, and those from other EU nations, happily sitting on and becoming incredibly wealthy on the boards of directors of Russian companies close to the Kremlin. Finally there is a public discussion asking, is this really in Germany’s best interest? This clip from German Sunday TV is really worth watching:
As is this opinion piece questioning the role of Germany’s social democrats and their longstanding, complicated relationship with Putin’s Russia:
Meanwhile, a German conservative politician, who isn’t even a part of the current government, opened his mouth and said he couldn’t imagine kicking Russia out of the international money transfer system SWIFT. Markets reacted yesterday with a sigh of relief, after having initially panicked and begun to price in the real risk of war into both Ukrainian and Russian issuers. To be fair, Russia knows the risk of being kicked out of SWIFT is real. It understands the U.S. and UK would not hesitate to do it. If the Kremlin decides to invade Ukraine, it will take this hit. It has calculated this sanction into its decision-making process. Therefore it is wild that prominent voices in Germany would speak up to defend something Russia has already swallowed.
Circling back (horrible phase but here it feels right) to the UK flights avoiding German airspace last night, which caused many commentators to argue that Central Europe will feel even more unsafe now, knowing Germany cannot be depended on to defend their territories in the event of a Russian attack (we are getting ahead of ourselves here for the sake of argument), what is the role of the German military in all of this? This blog post is very good at helping explaining how we got here and why Germany is like it is today. Well worth your time to read it:
My thoughts are all over the place at this point, but what I am most concerned about is the following: it is clear the UK and U.S. will arm and help Ukraine basically up unto the point of sending their own troops. They have even talked about training Ukranian insurgents in NATO countries like Poland, Romania and Slovakia:
So let’s say the UK and U.S. take clear sides but Germany’s role is murky because of both geography and Russian gas. Let’s say Central Europe broadly, including Russian ally countries like Hungary, Slovenia and Serbia, says let’s take Russia’s side in this. While Poland, for example, would clearly always be against Russia. What if we get into a tangled web of confusing allegiances and this leads to an informal sphere of Russian influence that extends as far west as Berlin? What then? As someone pointed out to me this week, the Russians wouldn’t even have to roll tanks into Vienna, they would be welcomed with open arms. Are we ready to imagine a world where the Anglo-Saxon lines of influence end where the German language begins?
Military exercises in Belarus
Belarus has announced joint military drills with Russia for early February, and the internet is filled with newly filmed videos of Russian military equipment on the move by train in Belarus. Russian troops are also reportedly already arriving in Belarus. This is worth watching as some suspect if there were to be a Russian invasion of Ukraine, if you look at the map, Belarusian troops could help a lot, namely by encircling Kyiv from the other side.
Poop in St Petersburg
St Petersburg has been in the news a lot this week. The city is apparently covered in thick layers of ice on its sidewalks. Residents can’t walk safely around, and the ER for fixing broken bones is packed with victims of falls on ice. In this context, an artist placed a giant “poop” in central St Petersburg, and was promptly arrested.
Car bomb in Montenegro
As what is in all likelihood a follow-up on the 400 kilograms of cocaine stashed in bananas story from last week, a car bomb went off in Montenegro yesterday, killing some mafia big-wig. I’ve always been fascinated that the mafia in Montenegro is essentially made up of rival gangs, both from little villages just outside of Kotor. If you’ve been to Montenegro, you will know that Kotor, while a beautiful UNESCO-protected walled city, isn’t exactly central to anything. In fact, it’s located on Kotor bay, set apart from the rest of the country by its geography. I would love to know more about why these two villages and how do they manage to control “a good portion of the drug trade from South America to Europe”?! If you remember a few years ago in Vienna, there was a shootout in the first district in broad daylight, in some schnitzel restaurant. That was also dudes from Kotor.
U.S. schools
Two pieces worth reading taking a deeper look on the overwhelmingly negative consequences for an entire generation of children of one and a half years of public school closures in America. Europe tried to keep schools open, with all the ups and downs, and online/offline, A/B schedules, masks/no masks, etc. In many parts of Americas, schools shut their doors for what authorities now admit was far, far too long. Some excellent pieces of journalism looking at the repercussions of that:
U.S. inflation
This is a very easy to listen to and not at all economic-y listen on rising inflation in the U.S. and what is means going into 2022. I was particularly struck by the assumption that supply chain issues will disappear by the second half of 2022, and therefore inflationary pressure will ease, or so the White House says. I am more worried about supply chain issues in 2022 than I was in 2021 given China potentially losing its battle against Omicron with its huge population neither 3x vaccinated with mRNA vaccines nor having any natural immunity post-infection.
Dopesick
Finally, a book recommendation. This is now a show on Disney+, but as I was too cheap to pay for a subscription, I bought the book instead. I highly recommend you do the same. An excellent look at America’s ever growing opioid crisis, with on the ground in-depth reporting and tracking affected families in the state of Virgina. It will break your heart and open your eyes to a domestic crisis that really truly has no easy solutions. For a background on the painkiller pills that got us into the heroin mess in the first place, I also recommend Empire of Pain, The Secret History of the Sackler Dynasty.
One final thought in closing, which I forgot to include earlier but probably fits best here at the end anyway. Russia “experts” for lack of a better term don’t all agree with each other. Those who follow the military and its movements argue military action is likely given the equipment movement they have been observing. Journalists, who understand the situation on the ground in Russia, and the Russian public’s general distaste for any war but especially a war with Ukraine, say it wouldn’t be in Putin’s interests to start a war. They are both right. I can see both their points’ of view. I think the important thing to remember here is only one man decides, and he may make an emotional decision, devoid of any “logical” cost-benefit analysis.
With that, I wish you all a peaceful and productive Tuesday. Thanks so much for reading.