As I wait to find out who else in our house has covid (isolation is not a realistic option with five nearly adult sized people in an apartment in winter), I thought I’d share with you this afternoon what I have been reading and listening to today. It’s been an overwhelming past few weeks on the “will Russia invade Ukraine tomorrow or not?” front. I’ve found these articles and podcasts helpful in trying to sort through all the conflicting messages.
To start, let’s not forget about Belarus. A ton of Russian military equipment and some troops have arrived there in recent weeks, ostensibly for joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus in February, but prompting the question on most observers’ minds: are they staying indefinitely? Lukashenko gathered his loyalists this morning for some kind of patriotic speech. The photos and videos are a covid risk patient horror show: a room full of rather unhealthy looking middle aged men and not a mask in sight:
This is not North Korea. This is Belarus, today, just a day’s drive from Vienna, a country in which many Austrian companies like A1 and Raiffeisen are still major investors in despite Lukashenko torturing his own people and holding thousands of political prisoners. He has to be nervous, though. I just don’t see a scenario for him under which an extended Russian military presence in his country is a good thing. He’s a useful idiot for the Kremlin, but not more. These photos are killing me:
Quite the speech, too:
So what happened today? The most interesting development was Ukraine’s president meeting with journalists in Kyiv and using pretty strong and clear words to describe what he feels like has been escalation on the part of the US.
I think it’s wonderful that Ukraine is speaking up, because we all know plenty of examples over the past decades of US foreign policy which was basically tell small country what to do, interfere in domestic politics of said country, pull up and leave abruptly when US gets bored or no longer has a commercial or strategic interest in the conflict.
Ukraine’s defence minister also said today the Russian military buildup is now no greater than it was in April.
Other views from Ukraine on why US is pouring fuel in the fire and why they don’t expect a full-scale invasion right now:
Back in Moscow, Lavrov said something today which I felt myself slowly nodding in agreement with. Now Lavrov says plenty of things just for the soundbites, as his number one job is to tread water until Putin makes up his mind, throwing out little word bombs to journalists just for kicks.
This, also from Lavrov, made me wonder if that’s one of the many plans being discussed, for if/when Moscow decides to go with framing it as if Ukraine has no control over its own army and Russia therefore, peacekeeper that it is (lol) had no choice but to save Ukraine from itself.
If you have the time this weekend, I really recommend this excellent long read on Russia, Ukraine and Soviet history by historian Serhei Plokhii.
I also recommend listening to this chat with Julia Ioffe (second half of the conversation). She rightly points out that if the worst really does happen, and there will be a war in Ukraine, “it will go on for years, it will be horrible.”
Another excellent podcast is this by BBC World, in conversation with Steve Rosenberg from Moscow and Sarah Rainsford in Kyiv.
One things is crystal clear. No one knows what will happen. But some things can help us to better understand the ideology driving things at the moment. Such as these three points as outlined by Tatiana Stanovaya:
Finally, this report by Mark McKinnon is the first I have read about tactical plans by Ukraine “what if” Russia takes territory, how do we operate then?
One more interesting tidbit — this morning I wrote about Nord Stream 2, and this afternoon I was surprised to see the speaker of Austria’s parliament, Sobotka, coming out and saying he would consider NS2 as part of a sanctions package should Russia attack Ukraine.
I had really wanted to go see Licorice Pizza this weekend, but thanks to Omicron flowing through Austria, I’ll be at home waiting to see who gets covid next. If you have any great viewing tips for Netflix or Amazon Prime, I would love them.
Happy weekend, everyone.
Hallo Tanja, ich habe einen Filmtipp für dich: The Professor and the Madman auf Amz Prime. Danke für deine interessanten Beiträge, die ich sehr gern lese! Liebe Grüße aus dem 9. Bezirk, Karina :-)