What happens in Ukraine doesn't stay in Ukraine
Russian attacks rage on in Ukraine, including directly on civilians. Moldova, Georgia and beyond. Will the west actually do something? Z fascism. Anti-war protests in Russia.
This photo has no symbolism other than it reminds me of the before times, of summer sun and sea, of my happy place, and of a cat about to pounce. His prey can of course see that it is about to pounce. We can see he is about pounce. We stand, and watch. We know what’s coming and yet we watch with fascination anyway. I worry this is what the west is now doing with Ukraine on day 11 of Putin’s war on a proud sovereign nation of 40 million people. Yes, the west has hit Russia with unprecedented economic sanctions in response. Yes, the west has been helping Ukraine arm itself, has helped managed the ensuing humanitarian refugee crisis, even some foreign soldiers have come to fight side by side with Ukraine.
But what Ukraine really needs right now, facing down the Russian army and an all out attack by a nuclear power, is a no fly zone over Ukraine, and the west isn’t looking as if it’s ready to agree to that. Ukraine’s president even went so far as to say to US Senators over Zoom yesterday that if you don’t deliver on helping Ukraine protect its skies, this may be the last time you see me alive.
Zelensky went on video again this afternoon, begging for a no fly zone or planes for Ukraine, after 8 cruise missiles hit Vinnitsa airport, destroying everything in sight. They were reportedly fired from Transnistira in occupied Moldova. More on that topic below.
Putin is hell bent on not only taking Ukrainian land, but it would appear, to destroy the Ukrainian people. His war is a tactical and strategic mess. He may have really naively expected his troops to be greeted with bread and salt, and instead he will face guerrilla warfare until the last Ukrainian standing. This is not, as many Putin-explainers like to argue, just about NATO expansion to the east. If it was, that would have been the topic Putin wrote several dozen pages on last summer. He didn’t write about NATO. He wrote about Ukraine. He is obsessed.
The war crimes taking place right now by Russia against Ukraine’s civilian population are intentional and by design.
The eyewitness reports form Ukraine are a horror. I share because I think the world needs to know, but fully understandable if you want to skip these links and read on.
More from Kharkiv (she writes in Russian but you can read her tweets using Google translate):
This war will only get worse as Putin grows more emboldened, more certain that the west will not take the additional step of providing air power for Ukraine. I’m not a military tactician, I cannot explain that, but I can promise you all one thing of which I am absolutely certain: this war in Ukraine does not end in Ukraine. It ends where the world (excluding China which is going to be the biggest beneficiary of this whole mess) stops Putin.
I would question the old rules about do not engage a nuclear power when that nuclear power is intent on committing genocide against a nation of 40+ million people right here in Europe. Does that mean we all sit back and watch a madman do his thing? Also - neutrality - Austrian style. What even is that? In my opinion, it is incredibly naive and a leftover from an era long gone.
I made the mistake yesterday of turning on CNN. Every time I try to do that since this war started 11 days ago, I last a few minutes and then have to turn it off again. Anyway, whether by fate or divine intervention, I caught the most upsetting dialogue with a former U.S. general explaining why the world should just watch Ukraine disintegrate because that saves Europe.
So. Let me try to explain calmly (I was not capable of this yesterday). If you say on CNN so that Russia can hear that Moldova and Georgia are “soft targets”, this is like an open invitation. Moldova is the poorest country in Europe and has already accepted more per capita refugees than any other country in Europe. It is Russian and Romanian speaking and has occupied pro-Russian Transnistria, from which missiles and rockets have reportedly been launching at Ukraine.
So let’s say Putin makes advances in Ukraine, and then goes for Moldova and Georgia, just because he can, just because he is sanctioned up to the ears anyway, no one inside Russia has dared to stop him, and the west has made it clear anything non-NATO is fair game. So what then? Well then he tests NATO countries. NATO is an untested military alliance. NATO has never had to actually come to the defence of a new member like Latvia or Romania because Russia has never attacked them. NATO has never had to deal with the prospect of a hot war with Russia. Who is to say NATO actually comes to Romania or Latvia’s defense? Even CNN was already talking about the Baltics, casually, like football commentary.
Orban in Hungary is up for re-election and has long played a double game pretending to be loyal to EU while kissing Putin’s you-know-what. What if Orban flips? Well then Russia blazes through Ukraine, meeting resistance of course but it keeps pushing its equipment through, and Hungary looks vulnerable. Austria? Neutral Austria could be taken without even firing a single shot. All you have to do is put a Russia-friendly puppet government in place. Sound far fetched? Sure, but how many governments have we had in recent years? How much of the population has been radicalised by the far right? Putin is a hero for fascist racist anti-immigrant anti-establishment white supremacists the world over.
Finland and Sweden understand the risks and have been hinting very strongly they might like to be part of NATO after all.
The Balkans are looking jumpy. There were right wing pro-Russia protests in Belgrade (for sure financed by Russia via football thugs). Bosnia is vulnerable. Kosovo is vulnerable. What is to stop another conflict from alighting there, just as the world is trying to deal with the horrors of the war in Ukraine and the resulting humanitarian crisis as millions of refugees arrive in Europe.
This Z-fascism scares the crap out of me. A few examples:
Today there were also large anti-war protests in Russia. Mostly young people, mostly in big cities, at great personal risk. Moscow. St Petersburg. St Pete again and again. Protestors were arrested, beaten, and a new (new as in last ten days new) trend: riot police now stopping pedestrians in Moscow and demanding to read what is on their mobile phones. This is happening in Moscow airports too, I have heard from multiple people. Tickets out of Moscow on the remaining flights are selling for several thousand dollars, one way. One Moscow mommy chat is full of questions about long-term apartment rentals in Armenia, for example.
In short, it’s day 11 of Putin’s brutal war on Ukraine, and it’s grim. Ukraine is fighting like hell but at huge cost and as the west watches like this is entertainment for our screens rather than horrible unnecessary suffering and destruction and loss of life and a total fucking tragedy in this year 2022. There are millions of people in Ukraine still sleeping in cold basements, still low on food and water, still without gasoline or the means of fleeing, and humanitarian corridors are still not safe because…Russia.
This video sums up the situation really well if you understand Russian. Putin wanted to give Russia and himself a gift for the history books. Instead, he is going to destroy Ukraine and modern Russia along with it, and ultimately, himself and his historical legacy. All will go up in flames. He will only be remembered for these heinous crimes as people one day in the future look back on this awful year 2022, generations of children going through immeasurable trauma because of one overly powerful old man who lost his mind and a Russian elite and western world stood by, seemingly powerless to stop him.
If you understand German, watch to this interview with one young woman from a town outside of Kyiv who studies and works in Vienna, and was at home in Ukraine when the war began.
I can also recommend two podcasts: one on Zelensky the man and the other with interviews with Ukraine from Friday but still relevant (last 30 minutes).
Thank you so much for reading, and thank you for all your support for Viktor and Valentina today. You have fundamentally changed one little Ukrainian family’s lives in Austria for the coming months with your generosity. Valentina is exhausted and in a state of shock, but we have agreed to meet as soon as she is recovered.
Just as I was about to hit publish I saw this wonderful news:
It’s rare that I get to sign off with a glimmer of hope. Today, I’ll take it.