Day 31
Biden in Poland, Shoigu appears, Russia's "plan", the war enters a second phase. Excellent reporting. Scenes from downtown Vienna.
Today is hot and sunny and downtown Vienna is busy like I haven’t seen it since the before-covid times. Gone are the Asian tourists, but they are replaced by more Slavic languages than you can pin down. It’s a mix of the entire post-Soviet world and former eastern block, all coming together in the former capital of a lost empire. A post modern melting pot.
I was thinking about language a lot today. One of my kids (we speak English to each other) was like, “Mama, I’ve only heard like three people speaking German today”. You hear Serbian/Bosian/Croatian on the streets of Vienna, always, but only a familiar ear can tell if he or she is listening to Belgrade, Sarajevo or Zagreb. You also hear Russian on the streets of Vienna, and now more than ever passers by will probably be curious, who are those people? Are they Russians who left Moscow in protest against Putin’s insane war? Are they Ukrainians seeking refuge here who speak Russian at home? Are they perhaps from Central Asia and therefore not directly impacted by the war? Just like when you hear English, it can be anything, especially if you aren’t great at deciphering accents. My point — don’t jump to any conclusions.
The only conclusions I jump to is when I see a luxury SUV with Ukrainian plates on Vienna’s streets driven by a man aged between 18 - 60 who by Ukrainian law should be at home defending his country and for whatever reason, is not there, but here. You rarely see an ordinary car with a man driving it. Most of the cars I have seen here with Ukrainian plates are driven by women. But there are exceptions, and I think it wouldn’t be painting a full picture to ignore those exceptions and not talk about them. We see them too.
This afternoon Biden is in Poland. He just said this, amidst many words of support and assurances on NATO standing together.
Putin must have felt left out from the fun in Warsaw, and sent a signal just now, via Lviv. Think of this every time you hear someone argue the war is really only about Donbass. That was never true, and it still isn’t true, despite Russia’s attempts to pivot the focus to eastern Ukraine so as to distract from its lack of military progress elsewhere.
I found this to be a helpful analysis of Russia’s view of the war at this point. I definitely still think this is a long haul war, not one that will be over in weeks or even months. This pivot to Donbass is only to achieve some kind of short-term tangible target, and the goal of May 9 makes perfect sense as Russian leadership look to their celebratory propaganda calendar.
Regarding the war so far and what might be to come, I really recommend this perspective from Kyiv:
Today, Russia appears to have taken the town of Slavutych, whose history we learned about on our tour of Chernobyl in early February. The town was built as a new city to relocate those who had fled Pripyat’ after the disaster, except no one checked to see if the geographic position would be appropriate given the way the winds were blowing radioactive material.
Also today, Russian shelling damaged a Holocaust memorial outside of Kharkiv. A symbol of the memory of the innocent victims of Nazi fascism destroyed by 2022 Putin-Z fascism. I don’t know what else to call it. It isn’t all of Russia because the Russian people didn’t elect their leader (but they also didn’t topple him), but a healthy chunk of Russia’s population appears to still be brainwashed zombies, sitting in the planet Russia information bubble, going along with economic implosion and sacrifice in the name of…killing innocent Russian speakers next door in a sovereign land? It’s really important to remind ourselves just how insane this all is.
In other Russian news, Shoigu is (sort of) back. But his speech is weird, slow, reading from cards, with no emotion, nothing. Not exactly confidence-inspiring.
And then I scroll through the comments and see all sorts of theories as to why the set up is possibly faked. I don’t know, but one thing is clear — something is way off. Shoigu and Putin were always sold to us as being thick as thieves. As defense minister with zero real military experience, it is no surprise he is probably taking a lot of heat for the Russian army’s underwhelming performance and huge casualties to date in the war in Ukraine which you cannot call a war.
This is an interesting summary (in Russian) of the economic impact of the war so far. The Bell itself is an interesting organization, founded by liberal-minded journalists with western graduate education (Stanford), they have remained in Russia without getting labelled a foreign agent. A very fine line to walk indeed. You will therefore note their preface in which they explain they are not calling the war a war and will not report at all on the war only on the economic impact. Personally I cannot understand such an editorial policy unless your soul goal is surviving on Russian soil no matter what. A personal choice, surely, but I find it strange, because how are you doing journalism at that point when your hands are tied, when you can only report on half the story? Really not my place to judge, but I was thinking about this as I read what is a very good, comprehensive look at the economic impact to date — both in Russia and Ukraine. Definitely worth reading in translation (The Bell also has a weekly English newsletter).
Let me also please recommend some additional incredible reporting in no particular order:
Polish border — the enormous decisions Ukrainian refugees face and must make in seconds, minutes. I used to fear such questions like “where should we go?” and now I try to provide context so they can make an informed decision for themselves. The least we can do as those living in in the EU is say what we have heard, what we know to be true, where things are better, where things are worse, what the challenges are with each situation, choice. Making decisions is difficult even in the best of times, now imagine trying to do it when you haven’t slept for three days and every loud noise makes you jump like it’s another air raid siren.
This video needs no preface. I will end here. Thank you for reading.