I read about the fall of Assad just like you all did -- through my phone screen, while trying to comprehend the Christmas rush which feels particularly intense this year in Vienna.
Russia is no longer huge, a fact that seems lost on most of us from older generations. In terms of population it is now about the size of Mexico. In terms of young men between 18-35 Russia is not much bigger than Iran. Russia cannot afford to fight a long protracted war, they just don’t have the young men, and without immigration there is no way to replace what they lose every day. Ukraine was also an aging shrinking country before the war of course , which is why Russia has been able to “win” a war of attrition so far. But Russia is now powerless next to China. And really would be no match for a united EU, which explains why Russian foreign policy is so focused on undermining the EU at every turn. Losing Syria is yet another blow to Putin’s dreams of re-establishing Russia as a great power. The danger of course is that he is more likely to lash out irrationally rather than retrench and rethink the disastrously failed Russian foreign policy of the last 15 years.
Russia is no longer huge, a fact that seems lost on most of us from older generations. In terms of population it is now about the size of Mexico. In terms of young men between 18-35 Russia is not much bigger than Iran. Russia cannot afford to fight a long protracted war, they just don’t have the young men, and without immigration there is no way to replace what they lose every day. Ukraine was also an aging shrinking country before the war of course , which is why Russia has been able to “win” a war of attrition so far. But Russia is now powerless next to China. And really would be no match for a united EU, which explains why Russian foreign policy is so focused on undermining the EU at every turn. Losing Syria is yet another blow to Putin’s dreams of re-establishing Russia as a great power. The danger of course is that he is more likely to lash out irrationally rather than retrench and rethink the disastrously failed Russian foreign policy of the last 15 years.