Taking stock

No, this is not an April fool's post. A look at where we are and the roads ahead.

It is the strangest thing. In order for me to see what is happening in Austria (and more broadly) more clearly, I always have to leave. This weekend I had the pleasure of flying to London for a few nights for my best friend’s birthday party. We have known each other since we were both barely adults in Russia decades ago. Her parties are always like reunions of sorts, see people you haven’t seen in years and catch up. Walking around London this Easter weekend, a few things became glaringly apparent.

Despite the beautiful flowers on this Knightsbridge flower shop in the colors of the Ukrainian flag, Ukraine is out of sight out of mind. We did walk, entirely by accident, into an enormous pro-Palestinian protest in central London on Saturday. I was surprised by the number of “ordinary Brits” taking part. It was unlike those protests which you see in Austria. Here those waving flags of any colour usually have an ethnic connection to them, and family ties. I was also surprised to see the London police entirely unarmed except for what look like little batons hanging on their belts. It made me think were anything to happen, were things to get violent, the UK is pretty much unprepared. I then had a discussion about this, in which I and others argued police should carry guns, and Brits replied guns only make things worse, citing accidental shootings of the wrong person, etc. As I walked around London this weekend, I also noticed how little Russian or Ukrainian I heard on the streets. When you walk around Central Europe, you hear it everywhere, and it is a constant reminder of the very real war happening just a day’s drive from us. And then you visit an Anglo-saxon, capitalist “island”, whether it be UK, Canada or U.S., and you realise the world has other problems, the world is moving on, the world is not holding its breath over the fate of Ukraine.

Russia must certainly know this, even though the average Russian isn’t doing much international travelling these days. Time is on Russia’s side. The world is far more focused on the horrors of what is happening in Gaza than it is with Ukraine’s second largest city being at risk of losing its electricity supply after a series of heavy Russian bombings of utility infrastructure in the Kharkiv area. Do read Sarah Rainsford’s BBC dispatch from a defiant Kharkiv. There is a question of for how long. Kharkiv residents have been stoic in living in challenging conditions for some years already, but can they really be expected to stay if long-term damage to the city’s infrastructure is not reparable overnight? And if the answer is no, where will they go, and who is ready to house them? I read a tweet this week from a Kharkiv resident who wrote that she stayed as long as she possibly could but she could not take it anymore and made a decision to leave, asking not to be judged. I think about a mom with kids who was here in Austria and was so frustrated with the school system here that she was talking about going back to Kharkiv, despite the dangers. Did she go?

We were warned mid-day on Easter Sunday by Russia’s best team of investigate reporters that they had a bombshell to drop. And while I would not call it a surprise, it is concrete evidence, with names and faces, pointing directly to Russia’s security services for the years of attacks on U.S. and other diplomats and CIA professionals, referred to until know by reports as “Havana Syndrome.” This was a collaborative report. You can read the full English version here. There is also an accompanying 60 minutes report with U.S. officials. A few details which jumped out at me. First, from The Insider piece:

“Other reports have noted a proliferation of cases in Vienna in the latter half of 2021, months before the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Two veterans of CIA’s Kyiv Station were posted to Vienna during that spate of reported attacks.”

In response, Austria’s chancellor Karl Nehammer posted this today to X:

“There are serious allegations of espionage. On the one hand, these allegations must be clarified by the judiciary, and on the other hand, there needs to be an assessment and clarification of the impact these allegations have on Austria's security situation. I will therefore convene the National Security Council on April 9th.”

A few comments on this. Today is April 1. This is fast by Austrian standards. Having said that, spying is entirely legal here *unless* it hurts Austrian interests, so I wonder if this will come down like neutrality, i.e. nothing to see here the CIA dudes aren’t ours… Also, this April 9th meeting was already scheduled, to look into another internal scandal, namely an Austrian functionary now accused on having worked for/with the Russians. In short, its a smelly mess, but don’t expect any groundbreaking changes here.

How will the U.S. respond? That is a far more interesting question. There are two huge problems. First, as someone in the article mentions (could not find the quote right now), the best way to stop attacks like this is to have your own matching capacities. Second, how does the U.S. convince its best and brightest to go into espionage and diplomacy work when this is what they are facing, an invisible threat to their long-term health? Ethically, I would be surprised if the U.S. would ever seriously consider responding in kind. And for Russia, its spies are disposable, in the sense that it would never pull them out of situations out of fear they might be hurt. Perhaps, just maybe, they might not like the idea of their long-term investments being taking out of work before their prime (do watch the 60 minutes segment on the Tesla in Florida driven by the Russian electronics specialist turned TV “chef”). It is really scary to stop and think that there is an unseen weapon that Russian operatives can use, it would seem, anywhere in the world to hurt whoever they like. And for now, there doesn’t seem much the rest of us can do to stop it. I sincerely hope this years of reporting will lead to changes as to how governments address this. I remember for years in the U.S. there were some who cast doubt on the idea that these illnesses might be related to a single, sinister culprit.

The KGB takeover of Russia which began in 2000 and seems to have no end in sight has done so much damage, beyond the war in Ukraine, beyond the domestic arrests of anyone who dares say a peep. The spies have turned the clock back decades on what was Russia’s chance to embrace the rest of the developed world and join it. Instead, Russia is now isolated and defensive, and Russian citizens will once again shrug their shoulders, feeling powerless to do anything about it, using the tired line, “I don’t like to talk politics”.

America survived four years under Trump, but can it survive another four? Those are the questions running through my brain this exceptionally warm Easter Monday. My eldest was accepted to my alma mater this week. It was a thrill for all of us. He worked so hard and the odds are almost like winning the lottery these days. Now I have to figure out how to pay for it (In all seriousness, that will be a nightmare, and I have no plan B, not even a full-time job. But I am trying!). Then I started thinking, wow, kid, you could be in DC next November for the end of American democracy! Not exactly the phrase I would have imagined saying to my future kid when I graduated in the late 90s, full of hope for a world that was opening up and coming together, bridges being built both literal and metaphorical, economic and political. I didn’t think much about military back then. Those topics never interested me much. I naively truly believed that if everyone had a full belly, there would be no more wars. How wrong I was.

Now I think about how much longer does Europe have? Does Europe understand that it doesn’t the U.S. standing there as a military lender of last resort? Does it understand that what happens in Ukraine may not be limited to Ukraine? You look around and see ordinary people living their ordinary lives and 99% of them are not asking themselves these questions. Rightly so. Like, why would you? Most Ukrainians never believed Russia would actually invade until they woke up to the horrific news of February 24, 2022. And now many are building new lives outside of Ukraine, and that too will impact Europe for decades to come.

And yet this was Kyiv yesterday. Air raid sirens over church bells.

I keep reading this sentence below, over and over. And I don’t find any glimmers of hope. The flags have been waved for over two years, and much was provided up front, but never enough, and never fast enough. And now time, munitions, and manpower are all on Russia’s side. Young Ukrainian men will try to leave. They do not want to be thrown to the front like cannot fodder without enough ammunition for a fair fight. They face a terrible choice and many will choose the lesser evil, and this may be a run across a Romanian forest at night, or disability papers if one has the funds and connections. Mothers ask themselves how they can keep living under Ukrainian skies when they don’t know when they go to bed at night where the missiles will hit. This is the permanent-cortisol level that most of us have no ability to comprehend. What it is like to live with a constant threat of violence in the background, one which you have zero control over as you try and go about your daily lives as normally as possible, given “the circumstances”.

Here in Austria, there is nothing major to report. We received several colourful grocery photos over the holiday weekend. Thank you for keeping Cards for Ukraine going much longer than any of us could have ever imagined. I do still receive texts each day asking for help, and I reply please wait, have patience, we cannot send what we do not have. My biggest concern is a major influx of new arrivals, for which Austria and I am sure many EU countries is woefully unprepared. Ukraine is an enormous country and if electricity supplies are more permanently damaged in major cities, this may result in huge numbers of people arriving with short notice in our cities. As usual, our bureaucrats are still discussing the legal status of Ukrainians for post-March 2025, while I see no visible evidence nor have I heard any rumours of contingency planning for new waves of refugees. This worries me, but it has for some time, and so far, the authorities have gotten away with it. Let’s see for how long…

I hope those of you who celebrate had a lovely Easter. I received a photo yesterday from a Ukrainian mom of two in Vienna who lit a candle in memory of Christopher in church yesterday. I still cannot quite accept that I will hit “publish” on this and he will not be able to read it.